New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -warns-obr

I think they are being way too optimistic and the idea that the economy will bounce back is ludicrous and an insult to those losing their jobs and livelihoods.

What (I think) we can all agree on, is that the economy won't look the same after this.
Anybody wanting/expecting things to return exactly as before, is likely to be disappointed.

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things.
Transition to a low-carbon economy, more UK manufacturing, more local agriculture, stricter controls on financial services, better ways to dispose of our own waste etc. etc.

For some people, this would present an opportunity.
For others, it might signal hard times, but maybe also a chance to reassess ?
It very much depends on what people do for a living, and what skill sets they have ?
Many people will need to consider a career change ?

Most people don't have "careers". Most people just take what work they can get for what money they can get.

[Little John]

With all this talk of "taking it on the chin" and "letting rip" I find it comforting that given the circumstances of possible mass deaths from a global pandemic most world leaders, including our our Conservative leadership, have erred on the side of humanity over economics; lives over greed.

When the economy is totally thrashed, where do you think we'll find all the money for hospitals and social care? And how about all those self employed people who's lives are now being destroyed as the businesses they've worked hard to build are utterly smashed by government dictat?

It's been said here many times before that our money is a construct of the imagination so just as has been done in bailing out businesses we can print the money to rebuild businesses and pay for the NHS. The political will is there according to the Chancellor in the briefing today.

You can play pretend with the money supply only for so long as:

(a) you don't do it for too long or too often.
(b) future growth gives all of your pretend money a real home to go to

If (a) and (b) are not both true, bad things will happen.

(a) and (b) are not both true. In fact, neither of them is true. Bad things are going to happen.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -warns-obr

I think they are being way too optimistic and the idea that the economy will bounce back is ludicrous and an insult to those losing their jobs and livelihoods.

What (I think) we can all agree on, is that the economy won't look the same after this.
Anybody wanting/expecting things to return exactly as before, is likely to be disappointed.

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things.
Transition to a low-carbon economy, more UK manufacturing, more local agriculture, stricter controls on financial services, better ways to dispose of our own waste etc. etc.

For some people, this would present an opportunity.
For others, it might signal hard times, but maybe also a chance to reassess ?
It very much depends on what people do for a living, and what skill sets they have ?
Many people will need to consider a career change ?

There will be some of that, but it is not clear how much of it. There is probably a significant number of people who already wanted a change but needed something like this to give them a nudge.

[UndercoverElephant]

When the economy is totally thrashed, where do you think we'll find all the money for hospitals and social care? And how about all those self employed people who's lives are now being destroyed as the businesses they've worked hard to build are utterly smashed by government dictat?

It's been said here many times before that our money is a construct of the imagination so just as has been done in bailing out businesses we can print the money to rebuild businesses and pay for the NHS. The political will is there according to the Chancellor in the briefing today.

You can play pretend with the money supply only for so long as:

(a) you don't do it for too long or too often.
(b) future growth gives all of your pretend money a real home to go to

If (a) and (b) are not both true, bad things will happen.

(a) and (b) are not both true. In fact, neither of them is true. Bad things are going to happen.

Yes. It is a double-whammy. Hitting the physical limits to growth and reaching the end of this particular experiment in purely fiat money.

And it is different this time to previous failures of fiat money. We've never previously had a global system of purely fiat currencies all floating against each other. We've only had individual fiat currencies be devalued or collapse completely. This time they're all going go bad at the same time, so even though they are collapsing, they will roughly retain parity with each other.

IOW, we are heading for global stagflation, and at some point questions will be asked about what governments are going to do to stop it. Printing more money and then trying to grow our way out of the stagnation will already have been seen to have failed, so the only other option is to try to stop the inflation. And the only way to stop the inflation will be to end the money-printing and whack interest rates up to double figures. But that leads to the sort of hardship that ends in revolutions or totalitarian states.

The only other way out is some sort of total rethink of the way our society and economy works, including the re-invention of money.

[Snail]

If we all start obsessing with lengthy threads about money again, the forum will surely this time die!

But cash will be an early casualty, so keep it for this crisis but don't wait too long to get rid. That's my advice!

[vtsnowedin]

Breaking away from stay at home I went out for propane and beer yesterday and then again today for things I didn't get the day before. Quite a difference in the two stores I shopped in both from the same company but one over the state line. That one had some arrows on the floor trying to encourage people to flow through in one direction but most customers were paying little attention to them. Also mask wearers were less then fifty percent including store staff. Pexieglass between you and checkout person but other then a direct sneeze deflector I doubt they amount to much.
Store in Vermont today has made major changes in the last couple of weeks almost all customers and staff wearing masks. Displays have been moved to block off travel paths and isles all marked one way with enough signs etc. that most were following the rules with a few elderly still going their own way. Everybody staff and customers were staying eight to ten feet apart with no problem. Checkpout line was roped off with a start here sign and markers eight feet apart on the floor which you advanced on marker to marker as those in front moved ahead. At the head of the line a store employee pointed to the checkout line now free for you. Also pexiglassed but with the attendant wearing a mask and gloves with your change if any slid under a slot in the glass. The card reader had a sign on it to tell people to not spray it down as the store cleaned it regularly and too much liquid would gum up the works.

[Little John]

If we all start obsessing with lengthy threads about money again, the forum will surely this time die!

But cash will be an early casualty, so keep it for this crisis but don't wait too long to get rid. That's my advice!

The way that money is made and managed is one of the central problems of our age that is stopping correct actions being taken on a host of fronts. Talking about it, in the context of an analysis of what those correct actions should be, is unavoidable.

[boisdevie]

Kier Starmer wants to know what the governments exit strategy is from the lockdown. He's not the only one who'd like to know.

[UndercoverElephant]

Kier Starmer wants to know what the governments exit strategy is from the lockdown. He's not the only one who'd like to know.

Yes, and the government's response won't stand up to much scrutiny. Currently they are saying "If we say what the exit strategy is, it will compromise the 'stay at home' message". This is patronising - it implies the public is too stupid to follow instructions now if it knows what the future strategy is. But it also sounds like an excuse - cover for the fact that the government doesn't actually have an exit strategy agreed among themselves, which is a major problem. This is the sort of situation where Starmer might prove rather effective. He's unlikely to allow the government to get away with bullshitting to cover up an inadequate strategic position. It's the sort of thing Corbyn was weak on.

[Mark]

What (I think) we can all agree on, is that the economy won't look the same after this.
Anybody wanting/expecting things to return exactly as before, is likely to be disappointed.

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things.
Transition to a low-carbon economy, more UK manufacturing, more local agriculture, stricter controls on financial services, better ways to dispose of our own waste etc. etc.

For some people, this would present an opportunity.
For others, it might signal hard times, but maybe also a chance to reassess ?
It very much depends on what people do for a living, and what skill sets they have ?
Many people will need to consider a career change ?

Most people don't have "careers". Most people just take what work they can get for what money they can get.

Not sure I agree with that (pre Coronavirus).
In my experience, most people have been doing the same/similar careers/jobs for their whole life, sometimes because of their education/training, sometimes because of 'fear of change', sometimes because of lack of transferable skills....
A minority of people go through several different types of career/job in their life, and are therefore more suited to changing circumstances.

All I'm saying is that to get through this, more people will need to move from the first group to the second group. Businesses also need to be adaptable to changing circumstance.
Post Coronavirus, those that can't adapt for whatever reason will increase the unemployment rate or go bust...
What we don't know at the moment is the scale...

[vtsnowedin]

Mark wrote:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things. Transition to a low-carbon economy,.....

Yes I think you are dreaming on that point. The economy will be in such deep distress as we come out of this there will be no time or patience for seeking low carbon solutions to production and other human activities.
Only after the production and supply lines are working satisfactorily again will there be the time or inclination to seek low carbon innovations.
In the short term you might see some very carbon expensive things happen in a makeshift way to get people fed and housed. Perhaps restarting some recently closed coal fired electric plants if needed and a return of all the ice truck miles being driven to deliver food and supplies.
There are two distinct problems here and mixing the two will not help and I believe will not be tolerated.

[boisdevie]

Mark wrote:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things. Transition to a low-carbon economy,.....

Yes I think you are dreaming on that point. The economy will be in such deep distress as we come out of this there will be no time or patience for seeking low carbon solutions to production and other human activities.
Only after the production and supply lines are working satisfactorily again will there be the time or inclination to seek low carbon innovations.
In the short term you might see some very carbon expensive things happen in a makeshift way to get people fed and housed. Perhaps restarting some recently closed coal fired electric plants if needed and a return of all the ice truck miles being driven to deliver food and supplies.
There are two distinct problems here and mixing the two will not help and I believe will not be tolerated.

It's another example of hopeism. Bit like the ONS expecting the economy to just 'bounce back'. As the American Marines say, 'Hope is not a plan'. I hope it'll all work out but in the meantime I'm storing food.

[Mark]

Mark wrote:

Maybe I'm dreaming, but I see this as an opportunity to 'reset' certain things. Transition to a low-carbon economy,.....

Yes I think you are dreaming on that point. The economy will be in such deep distress as we come out of this there will be no time or patience for seeking low carbon solutions to production and other human activities.
Only after the production and supply lines are working satisfactorily again will there be the time or inclination to seek low carbon innovations.
In the short term you might see some very carbon expensive things happen in a makeshift way to get people fed and housed. Perhaps restarting some recently closed coal fired electric plants if needed and a return of all the ice truck miles being driven to deliver food and supplies.
There are two distinct problems here and mixing the two will not help and I believe will not be tolerated.

Electricity generation in the UK has moved a long way towards renewables in the past decade.
Coal is virtually gone and won't be back anytime soon - the stations are being demolished, but the level of gas generation still remains fairly steady.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/data-portal/el ... -source-gb

Transport is another matter, but all the big car manufacturers are now committed to producing electric. Petrol and Diesel cars will be banned in the UK by 2035.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40726868
Not sure on the situation regarding trucks ?

Heathrow's expansion has been stopped:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51658693

This is the chance to make the changes needed.
If not now, when ??

[Mark]

It's another example of hopeism. Bit like the ONS expecting the economy to just 'bounce back'. As the American Marines say, 'Hope is not a plan'. I hope it'll all work out but in the meantime I'm storing food.

So, what do you want ?
A return to life exactly as it existed in January ?
Or just for your own personal economic prosperity to be restored ?

The economy wasn't exactly sustainable, was it ?
We were always going to arrive at this point, it was just a matter of when ?
Earth Overshoot Day:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day

[boisdevie]

So, what do you want ?
A return to life exactly as it existed in January ?

-nope. We can't go back to how it was even if we wanted to
Or just for your own personal economic prosperity to be restored ? - that's quite a nasty personal dig. Clearly I want all old people to die and for the NHS to be utterly crippled.

(Edited to what I think it should look like. You're welcome to edit it back or to however you want it. Ken)