New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **adam2** » 13 Apr 2020, 16:19

Your expected figures only differed from the actual reported figures by a reasonably small margin however.

Perhaps I should do my own forecasts, not based on any detailed analysis, but simply assuming that both deaths and cases will be 90% of your forecasts. That is cheating though.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 13 Apr 2020, 16:58

Vortex2 wrote:HMG data as at 13th April

As of 9am on 13 April, 367,667 tests have concluded, with 14,506 tests carried out on 12 April.

290,720 people have been tested, of whom 88,621 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 12 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 11,329 have died.
Both are lower than my expected 90,397 cases and 12,107 deaths.

Predicting the future can be difficult!

The testing stats that the gov list daily are absolutely pointless. Presumably at one time when there was limited capacity, they were testing likely sick for treatment. Now that they are testing more, I assume they are testing frontline staff for H&S reasons as well as patients. Until they start testing people randomly the number tells us nothing.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Apr 2020, 19:16

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -of-virgin

Branson, who often drapes himself in the Union flag and last year had Virgin Atlantic planes painted with a range of mascots carrying the flag, claims he moved to his private 30-hectare Necker Island, part of the BVI archipelago, to take advantage of the weather rather than the tax breaks.

â€œI have not left Britain for tax reasons but for my love of the beautiful British Virgin Islands and in particular Necker Island,â€� he said in a now-deleted blog post when his Caribbean tax domicile was revealed in 2013. â€œI have been very fortunate to accumulate so much wealth in my career, more than I need in my lifetime and would not live somewhere I donâ€™t want to for tax reasons."

I think a government bailout of virgin would prove exceptionally unpopular.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Apr 2020, 09:04

I don't think I want to catch this bug ...

Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... protective

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 14 Apr 2020, 09:29

Vortex2 wrote:I don't think I want to catch this bug ...

Coronavirus could attack immune system like HIV by targeting protective cells

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... protective

So do you want either
1. Lockdown until we get a vaccine or
2. Take your chances?

Post by **mikepepler** » 14 Apr 2020, 10:06

I've only skimmed this, but it's very interesting. It shows that historically pandemics have resulted in reduced returns on investment/land for many years afterwards and also resulted in rises in real wages. War, on the other hand, boosts returns for investors. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26934.pdf

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 14 Apr 2020, 12:56

Just tried our local Aldi. We only have 1 small Tesco and 1 poor Aldi. The que was 2 car parks to get in. Last time it took an hour to enter when 1/2 as long. If this continues, our town will grind to a halt. I could walk to a filling station until 8pm. It's well stocked but pricey. I am not short of supplies, but want to stay well stocked.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 14 Apr 2020, 13:04

With all this talk of "taking it on the chin" and "letting rip" I find it comforting that given the circumstances of possible mass deaths from a global pandemic most world leaders, including our our Conservative leadership, have erred on the side of humanity over economics; lives over greed. Whether that is because of their own basic humanity or fear of not being elected I don't know but I find it comforting all the same.

On the back of this experience I can see that there will be a lot of respect shown to those who have worked through this, the lower paid, especially NHS staff, will get pay rises of some sort and the banks, which have only shown self regard, will fall from favour with increased taxation to pay for those pay rises.

I also hope that the banks will be disregarded as a source of government funding in future in favour of the magic money tree which has been shown to exist after all.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Apr 2020, 13:04

mikepepler wrote:I've only skimmed this, but it's very interesting. It shows that historically pandemics have resulted in reduced returns on investment/land for many years afterwards and also resulted in rises in real wages. War, on the other hand, boosts returns for investors. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26934.pdf

Again, only skimmed ... but very little in the way of INSTANT changes seem to be shown.

The major effects are decades after the pandemic event.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 14 Apr 2020, 13:51

fuzzy wrote:Just tried our local Aldi. We only have 1 small Tesco and 1 poor Aldi. The que was 2 car parks to get in. Last time it took an hour to enter when 1/2 as long. If this continues, our town will grind to a halt. I could walk to a filling station until 8pm. It's well stocked but pricey. I am not short of supplies, but want to stay well stocked.

It is really interesting to hear how things are round the country. We are able to walk to a small Tesco, M&S and Co-op from our house. We are calling in every 3 or 4 days and have not had to queue yet (we are shopping for elderly relatives as well as ourselves). The high street and foodshops are very quiet. My wife did drive out to a large supermarket at the weekend but people were queuing so did an about face.

There is a security guard outside the Tesco store and he's loving the power. Even if there is no-one in the shop you have to follow arrows and go up and down each aisle. Of course, if you just want a pint of milk you have to walk past other people which clearly makes no sense. That's the new world we live in though.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 14 Apr 2020, 13:53

kenneal - lagger wrote:With all this talk of "taking it on the chin" and "letting rip" I find it comforting that given the circumstances of possible mass deaths from a global pandemic most world leaders, including our our Conservative leadership, have erred on the side of humanity over economics; lives over greed.

When the economy is totally thrashed, where do you think we'll find all the money for hospitals and social care? And how about all those self employed people who's lives are now being destroyed as the businesses they've worked hard to build are utterly smashed by government dictat?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 14 Apr 2020, 14:18

It is clear to me that Covid is a two pronged attack. One through your lungs and one through your job and means of support. The rich do not have to fear loss of jobs, house, or food supply, but the majority of us do and one prong can kill you just as effectively as the other with perhaps the economic prong having the potential for much higher death rates then the medical prong. The medical prong attacks the old, obese, and sick, while the economic prong attacks the working class both weak and strong, a much larger group.
Leadership, such as it is, must decide how to fend off both prongs and not concentrate on one only to get flanked by the other.
The critics are screaming that much more testing has to be done before we can fight the economic prong of this attack but the fact is not enough tests can be manufactured and processed to provide that knowledge before the battle will be over.
We must go ahead as if it were fifty years ago and no such test or tests existed and do what we can with what knowledge is in hand. To wait is to hand the virus a victory without putting up a fight.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Apr 2020, 14:56

HMG data as at 14th April

As of 9am on 14 April, 382,650 tests have concluded, with 14,982 tests carried out on 13 April.

302,599 people have been tested, of whom 93,873 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 13 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have died.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 14 Apr 2020, 15:28

Went to large morrisons this morning. No queue, few missing items.

A 50s care worker acquaintance in the village is confirmed to have the virus, almost certainly caught off one of her clients. She has gone to a and e for more tests, her daughter self isolating. She is a South African prepper and she will be a very angry and frightened woman right now.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Apr 2020, 15:41

vtsnowedin wrote:It is clear to me that Covid is a two pronged attack. One through your lungs and one through your job and means of support. The rich do not have to fear loss of jobs, house, or food supply, but the majority of us do and one prong can kill you just as effectively as the other with perhaps the economic prong having the potential for much higher death rates then the medical prong. The medical prong attacks the old, obese, and sick, while the economic prong attacks the working class both weak and strong, a much larger group.
Leadership, such as it is, must decide how to fend off both prongs and not concentrate on one only to get flanked by the other.
The critics are screaming that much more testing has to be done before we can fight the economic prong of this attack but the fact is not enough tests can be manufactured and processed to provide that knowledge before the battle will be over.
We must go ahead as if it were fifty years ago and no such test or tests existed and do what we can with what knowledge is in hand. To wait is to hand the virus a victory without putting up a fight.

yes, to all of this