vtsnowedin wrote:Vortex what is your take on Fridays spike in reported UK cases 8700 compared to about 5200 before and after.??
The data collection is shite .. especially for deaths which come from multiple almost random sources.
You need a 3 - 5 day moving average to de-spike the data.
Yes I'm aware of that but was curious as to what the immediate cause was to that outlier. Some end of week reports coming in or perhaps they surveyed funeral homes for those dying out of hospital etc. You are watching the data as much as anyone I am aware of so thought you might be clued in.
By the way you should find a way to get paid for your collection and analysis skills. They should be sacking several working for the government that can't predict the sun will rise in the East so there should be positions at good salary open soon.
By the way you should find a way to get paid for your collection and analysis skills
I'm just fitting data - not running any models or simulations.
I CAN design & run models and simulations and actually do so on some social science forums. Some of these have yielded interesting non-intuitive results.
Sadly I don't have time to do any here .. I'll leave the guru (?) Neil Ferguson to do that.
What struck me most from the start of this pandemic was the extraordinary measures that first the Chinese government then governments throughout the world of all persuasions were willing to take to stifle the spread of what seemed at first to be a quite innocuous disease. The consequences of the disease scared the Bejasus out of scientists, politicians and civil servants, apart from a few right wing nutters such as Trump and Bolsinario and has resulted in a range of policies which were said to be impossible to tackle something as serious as climate change.
Have scientists been using this disease to tee up our politicians for comprehensive action on climate change as we come out of the current health crisis? Will there be a mad dash back into economic growth, Trump will certainly try that one, after the crisis is over, or, in Trumps case, well before it is over.
kenneal - lagger wrote:What struck me most from the start of this pandemic was the extraordinary measures that first the Chinese government then governments throughout the world of all persuasions were willing to take to stifle the spread of what seemed at first to be a quite innocuous disease. The consequences of the disease scared the Bejasus out of scientists, politicians and civil servants, apart from a few right wing nutters such as Trump and Bolsinario and has resulted in a range of policies which were said to be impossible to tackle something as serious as climate change.
I have always wondered why the Chinese panicked so much.
Vortex2 wrote:
I have always wondered why the Chinese panicked so much.
Do they know something?
Will the bug make men sterile?
Or will you die of cancer 24 months later?
Cheer up, Brian. You know what they say.
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad.
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you're chewing on life's gristle,
Don't grumble, give a whistle!
And this'll help things turn out for the best
And
Always look on the bright side of life!
Always look on the bright side of life
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten!
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing,
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps,
Just purse your lips and whistle -- that's the thing!
And always look on the bright side of life
Come on!
Always look on the bright side of life
For life is quite absurd,
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow!
Forget about your sin -- give the audience a grin,
Enjoy it, it's the last chance anyhow!
So always look on the bright side of death!
Just before you draw your terminal breath.
Life's a piece of shit,
When you look at it.
Life's a laugh and death's a joke, it's true,
You'll see it's all a show,
Keep 'em laughing as you go.
Just remember that the last laugh is on you!
And always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
Come on guys, cheer up
Always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the bright side of life
Worse things happen at sea you know
Always look on the bright side of life
I mean, what have you got to lose?
you know, you come from nothing
you're going back to nothing
what have you lost? Nothing!
Always look on the bright side of life
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
Vortex2 wrote:I have always wondered why the Chinese panicked so much.
From 23rd January:
clv101 wrote:20 million people on lockdown is quite remarkable, I wonder how long that situation can be sustained, surely not more than a week or two. Also, it could be interpreted in two ways. Either they are doing the responsible thing, making all efforts to prevent the virus escape (albeit a week late), or the situation on the ground is a lot worse than they are letting on.
Turns out they did the responsible thing, and limited wide scale community spread outside Hubei. Quite an achievement when you consider how novel it was at the time.
That many of the rest of the world's countries failed, despite seeing the Chinese situation unfolding weeks earlier is scandalous.
cubes wrote:The last bit is pretty standard for business loans though.
The only bit I Have any issues with is the second part. Nowhere with general guidance (even the british business bank) has stated any of that at all.
edit: looking on Lloyds site I can see it now. Cheeky f**kers, not putting it on the BB Bank site.
Just checked .... Lloyds is my bank ... and yes they have added that restrictive middle part to the government's rules ... making it look like it's part of the government regulations.
cubes wrote:The last bit is pretty standard for business loans though.
The only bit I Have any issues with is the second part. Nowhere with general guidance (even the british business bank) has stated any of that at all.
edit: looking on Lloyds site I can see it now. Cheeky f**kers, not putting it on the BB Bank site.
Just checked .... Lloyds is my bank ... and yes they have added that restrictive middle part to the government's rules ... making it look like it's part of the government regulations.
I wonder just what percent of the UK economy will have been destroyed by this lockdown. I heard one estimate of 25% but I think it'll be more than that.
Vortex2 wrote:
Just checked .... Lloyds is my bank ... and yes they have added that restrictive middle part to the government's rules ... making it look like it's part of the government regulations.
I wonder just what percent of the UK economy will have been destroyed by this lockdown. I heard one estimate of 25% but I think it'll be more than that.
Could be - but maybe we should say 'remoulded'.
At the end of the day work needs to be done and products need to be made, traded, sold & used.
I just earnestly hope that the freeloaders get zapped by all this.
kenneal - lagger wrote:
What struck me most from the start of this pandemic was the extraordinary measures that first the Chinese government then governments throughout the world of all persuasions were willing to take to stifle the spread of what seemed at first to be a quite innocuous disease. The consequences of the disease scared the Bejasus out of scientists, politicians and civil servants, apart from a few right wing nutters such as Trump and Bolsinario and has resulted in a range of policies which were said to be impossible to tackle something as serious as climate change.
Have scientists been using this disease to tee up our politicians for comprehensive action on climate change as we come out of the current health crisis?
I don't think so, no. The reason this disease is so scary is that it is so much of a lottery. If it was only killing people in their 70s then it wouldn't be so much of a problem. But it also strikes down much younger people, in a way that seems rather random, and it clogs up hospitals with potentially serious consequences for anybody else that needs to use them.
Politicians have reacted the way they have because they're scared of facing an electorate that has been traumatised by Covid-19.
UndercoverElephant wrote:But it also strikes down much younger people, in a way that seems rather random, and it clogs up hospitals with potentially serious consequences for anybody else that needs to use them.
I have to disagree. Yes, some younger people die from this virus but a very very small percentage. The risks really ramp up with age and comorbidities such as obesity, high blood pressure, compromised immune system etc.
The lockdown seems to be operating on the premise that anyone who gets this virus regardless of age of health will have the same chance of needing hospital treatment and the same chance of death as anyone else That is simply not true.
The age profile of this disease is becoming clearer with each passing week. There is nothing mysterious about which countries it is hitting the hardest and why. It is those countries with the largest percentage of old folks.
It hits slightly more men than women and mostly the over 80s. But takes down a progressively lowering percentage of people as you go down through the lifespan.
