New coronavirus in/from China

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 20:18

My local estimate.

You'll need to check the https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... irus-cases
for local authority stats, Google the population to match that, then your own locality population to get a proportion of that. Finally, check the local news reports for fatalities in the regional hospitals.

National Cambs & Peterborough
Population 67,800,000 / 889,000
Official figure - (lagging, underreported) 60,933 / 358
Recent deaths reported in hospitals 7,097 / 40
Likely community and current deaths (+35%) 9,581 / 54
Crude Case Fatality Rate 15.7% / 15.1%
Case Multiplier x 30/ 30
Likely infected in UK / wider area 1,827,990 / 10,740
Estimated Cuml. Infected Fatality Rate 0.39% / 0.37%
Likely Infected - 1 in - 37 / 83
Local area Population 6500
Likely infected locally 79
1.21%

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 20:24

Ah, yes. Ministerial Bollocks it is.

You can exercise for up to one hour daily
So long as you follow the other guidelines for your own safety and for others, you can take up an exercise outdoors for up to one hour. This, however, excludes sports such as football and golf, and more importantly, team sports. Jogging, cycling and walking, as an example, are permitted. The new time constraints were suggested by Chancellor Michael Gove in a recent press conference.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 08 Apr 2020, 20:25

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Ah, yes. Ministerial Bollocks it is.

You can exercise for up to one hour daily
So long as you follow the other guidelines for your own safety and for others, you can take up an exercise outdoors for up to one hour. This, however, excludes sports such as football and golf, and more importantly, team sports. Jogging, cycling and walking, as an example, are permitted. The new time constraints were suggested by Chancellor Michael Gove in a recent press conference.

A suggestion is not law. Gove can suggest whatever he likes. I am not obliged to obey.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:01

If not the 'suggested' Ministerial Bollocks time constraint, then my outrageously leaving the house on no less than four occasions, all for permitted purposes, and while very strongly avoidant too, would be a breach, as this threatened judicial review is based on the one outing per day nonsense arbitrary rule.

https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/covid ... 40.article

I didn't leave the house yesterday, and will be staying in tomorrow, and my neighbour offered me his hour too, so I think it'll be OK in the end.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:04

I'm leaving the house on foot once a week to deliver eggs locally, and one of us, typical my wife leaves once a fortnight for the supermarket and animal feed.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:12

boisdevie wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Ah, yes. Ministerial Bollocks it is.

You can exercise for up to one hour daily
So long as you follow the other guidelines for your own safety and for others, you can take up an exercise outdoors for up to one hour. This, however, excludes sports such as football and golf, and more importantly, team sports. Jogging, cycling and walking, as an example, are permitted. The new time constraints were suggested by Chancellor Michael Gove in a recent press conference.
A suggestion is not law. Gove can suggest whatever he likes. I am not obliged to obey.

Did you miss the memo?

Half the world is locked down in an attempt to block the spread of a nasty virus ... and all you care about is showing how tough and independent you are?

Suggestion, rule, instruction, law, hint ... who gives a F--k ... you have a duty to protect yourself and others.

I can see why few posters remain on this forum.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:13

clv101 wrote:I'm leaving the house on foot once a week to deliver eggs locally, and one of us, typical my wife leaves once a fortnight for the supermarket and animal feed.

Could I buy your unused use of 'outside' please?

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:15

Vortex2 wrote:
boisdevie wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Ah, yes. Ministerial Bollocks it is.

You can exercise for up to one hour daily
So long as you follow the other guidelines for your own safety and for others, you can take up an exercise outdoors for up to one hour. This, however, excludes sports such as football and golf, and more importantly, team sports. Jogging, cycling and walking, as an example, are permitted. The new time constraints were suggested by Chancellor Michael Gove in a recent press conference.
A suggestion is not law. Gove can suggest whatever he likes. I am not obliged to obey.
Did you miss the memo?

Half the world is locked down in an attempt to block the spread of a nasty virus ... and all you care about is showing how tough and independent you are?

Suggestion, rule, instruction, law, hint ... who gives a F--k ... you have a duty to protect yourself and others.

I can see why few posters remain on this forum.

So please show me how my walking for two hours and interacting with absolutely nobody is failing in my duty to protect myself and others?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:24

This is exactly what grips me. Venturing out twice or more with nobody in sight is streng verboten, but commuting on a jam-packed tube train or bus in a hotspot city is all fine and dandy.

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:45

All of this stuff is getting a bit confusing for me. It seems like the rest of the world is doing it much worse than Australia and I am not sure why.

For instance according to the Grauniads coronavirus ticker the current cases and deaths for three countries are as follows...

USA 419,000 cases 14,200 deaths
UK 61,400 cases 7,110 deaths
Aus 6,000 cases 50 deaths

It seems that the deaths in Australia are very low for the number of cases and also the cases are 'a bit' lower than other countries. Could it be that Australia enforced its border closures more effectively than other. Or possibly Australians are isolating better and not spreading than others. Something of note is that many (maybe half) of the Australian deaths are attributed to coronavirus infections on cruise liners and a lot (I don't know how many) of cases in Australia were acquired overseas.

It seems to me that the disease is just transmitting less in Australia. Could it be that the people are outside more and it is still summer (technically it is Autumn) here. Maybe the virus is destroyed by the higher levels of UV radiation or something. At least there are upsides of the much greater skin cancer risk then.

Perhaps also people don't get as close to each other in Australia. After all the country is far more spaced out than the UK certainly.

In terms of the economy the service sector and education (except supermarkets) is pretty well shut down. However the primary industries such as farming and mining are continuing as if nothing has happened.

Something to mull over when you are having your Easter Eggs.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:47

For venturing outside: Don't ask, don't tell

If in town or city, id be tempted to carry a video camera/have phone handy for possible recording of overzealous police officers.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:52

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:This is exactly what grips me. Venturing out twice or more with nobody in sight is streng verboten, but commuting on a jam-packed tube train or bus in a hotspot city is all fine and dandy.

OK, I give up with this argument.

If some posters here don't know right from wrong then so be it.

I will simply let my new avatar tell it as it is.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:56

BritDownUnder wrote:UK 61,400 cases 7,110 deaths
Aus 6,000 cases 50 deaths

Remember our case count is much, much higher than 61,400. Maybe in the ~3% ball park, ~2 million.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:56

I have not gone out at all for must be going on 4 weeks now, except for a cycle ride a couple of times a week. Do around 10 miles which with all the cursed hills around here takes about an hour.
I'm out in the sticks, and once off the main road the only vehicles I see are agricultural or the likes of feed and milk lorries. Hardly any walkers, a few cyclists. The local attitude is very definitely 'we don't want this around here'. Not noticed a single incidence of anyone being silly, nor has anyone mentioned it in communications.
Also, very much appreciating the silence (other than the birds, who officially go mental at 4.30am, it's great), lack of planes, night skies, and getting stuff done in a relaxed way. Other than no money coming in and the fact it's a pandemic causing all of this to happen there are upsides, which I would hope won't be forgotten when this is all over.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Apr 2020, 21:57

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:This is exactly what grips me. Venturing out twice or more with nobody in sight is streng verboten, but commuting on a jam-packed tube train or bus in a hotspot city is all fine and dandy.

One keeps profits going. The other doesn't.