New coronavirus in/from China

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 08 Apr 2020, 16:33

I've seen quite a few people with masks in my area, some of them are driving in a car on their own which seems a bit odd to me.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 16:35

careful_eugene wrote:I've seen quite a few people with masks in my area, some of them are driving in a car on their own which seems a bit odd to me.

Are they driving past 5G towers?

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 08 Apr 2020, 16:37

vtsnowedin wrote:Each wave would have a progressively younger and healthier population to attack having already culled the oldest and weakest with the preceding wave.

Not unless the cull is faster than old age. In the UK, about 20000 a week reach any age, including death. Presumably that's about 100000 a week in the US. There are plenty of all ages to not skew the death rates in any direction.

edit - 100000

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 08 Apr 2020, 16:43

Interesting guess:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 17:10

fuzzy wrote:Interesting guess:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Back of the envelope estimates seem to suggest 60k-ish deaths in the first wave.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 17:13

HMG data as at 8th March

As of 9am on 8 April, 282,074 tests have concluded across the UK, with 14,682 tests carried out on 7 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

232,708 people have been tested, of whom 60,773 tested positive. Todayâ€™s figure for test data does not include Charing Cross and Southampton due to a data processing delay. The tests concluded figure excludes data from Northern Ireland.

As of 5pm on 7 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 7,097 have died.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Apr 2020, 17:18

fuzzy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Each wave would have a progressively younger and healthier population to attack having already culled the oldest and weakest with the preceding wave.
Not unless the cull is faster than old age. In the UK, about 20000 a week reach any age, including death. Presumably that's about 100000 a week in the US. There are plenty of all ages to not skew the death rates in any direction.

edit - 100000

Not quite for USA. 56,000 per week born or moved in , got old ,died. Population almost stable at 327 million growing only 1.5 million last year with .6 million of that net immigration from other countries. .

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Apr 2020, 17:26

Looked at from another direction if Covid19 causes additional deaths of 1.6 million or 0.49 percent of total population the population of the USA will stabilize or even begin to decline.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 18:54

If you were running this show, how would you loosen the constraints to enable more freedom without provoking a massive resurgence?

I'd start with allowing family and friends to meet, no more than six, and see how that worked out.
Then meetings of ten in any single building.
Non essential small businesses in segregated groups of ten.
Non-medical facemasks compulsory in public settings such as supermarkets.
Bus and train capacity limited to one third of usual maximum pax.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 19:33

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:If you were running this show, how would you loosen the constraints to enable more freedom without provoking a massive resurgence?

I'd start with allowing family and friends to meet, no more than six, and see how that worked out.
Then meetings of ten in any single building.
Non essential small businesses in segregated groups of ten.
Non-medical facemasks compulsory in public settings such as supermarkets.
Bus and train capacity limited to one third of usual maximum pax.

Apparently 75% of people are diligently following the rules with the other 25% regarding themselves as 'special or 'exceptions' in some way.

For the relaxation to work the rules will have to be made MUCH clearer and severe penalties for taking the piss must be applied.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Apr 2020, 19:49

Vortex2 wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:If you were running this show, how would you loosen the constraints to enable more freedom without provoking a massive resurgence?

I'd start with allowing family and friends to meet, no more than six, and see how that worked out.
Then meetings of ten in any single building.
Non essential small businesses in segregated groups of ten.
Non-medical facemasks compulsory in public settings such as supermarkets.
Bus and train capacity limited to one third of usual maximum pax.
Apparently 75% of people are diligently following the rules with the other 25% regarding themselves as 'special or 'exceptions' in some way...

What is the source of this claimed ratio?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 19:54

Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:If you were running this show, how would you loosen the constraints to enable more freedom without provoking a massive resurgence?

I'd start with allowing family and friends to meet, no more than six, and see how that worked out.
Then meetings of ten in any single building.
Non essential small businesses in segregated groups of ten.
Non-medical facemasks compulsory in public settings such as supermarkets.
Bus and train capacity limited to one third of usual maximum pax.
Apparently 75% of people are diligently following the rules with the other 25% regarding themselves as 'special or 'exceptions' in some way...
What is the source of this claimed ratio?

I heard it on the radio ... either LBC or Radio 4. Must be true.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 08 Apr 2020, 19:59

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: Apparently 75% of people are diligently following the rules with the other 25% regarding themselves as 'special or 'exceptions' in some way...
What is the source of this claimed ratio?
I heard it on the radio ... either LBC or Radio 4. Must be true.

You mean the same radio stations that have talked about exercise being limited to an hour a day when it isn't? I suspect that figure was a WAG (wild assed guess) from somebody who claims they are a 'journalist'

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 20:05

Today, I'll fess up that I breached da rulz.

I was in the outdoors for a whopping 2.5, maybe 3 hours. In that time, a fellow allotmenteer approached (wanting to help) as I was moving the pallets onto my wheelbarrow. But he backed away. Half hour job.

This afternoon, walked the three dogs including a near neighbours who has limited mobility. We've had the distancing routine well sorted on handover for the past six weeks or so. Not least because she's a care home nurse.

First dog needs to run on a training lead in an open park, way too boisterous to walk with the others. While in that park, saw one sat doing nowt (harmless), but others sat on park benches (only the open air gym has been fenced off)

Second walk - the next dog pulls like a train, but is manageable with our friend's spaniel because I use a walker belt and harness. Walked them across dry farmland rather than the beaten track used by others - was unusual to see anyone out unless they have a dog - until now... but eat a hasty retreat on the concrete 6m wide farm track part of the walk when four yoofs abreast approached. They looked like some 80s pop video posers. Advised a guy on a mountain bike (who was mutually avoiding me) to steer clear of them as there was a 5% risk one of them was infected... Really? Cheers then mate...

Then, the last walk with our third dog. Also solitary. Saw someone in the distance open and shut the metal farm gate - but.. there's an unobstructed side entrance.

It's not duration outdoors. It's distance from people. And touching stuff other people use.

To be fair, I can see why they do specify an hour. Because in a city, there would be far too many idiots in close proximity met, even in that time.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 08 Apr 2020, 20:13

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Today, I'll fess up that I breached da rulz.

I was in the outdoors for a whopping 2.5, maybe 3 hours. In that time, a fellow allotmenteer approached (wanting to help) as I was moving the pallets onto my wheelbarrow. But he backed away. Half hour job.

This afternoon, walked the three dogs including a near neighbours who has limited mobility. We've had the distancing routine well sorted on handover for the past six weeks or so. Not least because she's a care home nurse.

First dog needs to run on a training lead in an open park, way too boisterous to walk with the others. While in that park, saw one sat doing nowt (harmless), but others sat on park benches (only the open air gym has been fenced off)

Second walk - the next dog pulls like a train, but is manageable with our friend's spaniel because I use a walker belt and harness. Walked them across dry farmland rather than the beaten track used by others - was unusual to see anyone out unless they have a dog - until now... but eat a hasty retreat on the concrete 6m wide farm track part of the walk when four yoofs abreast approached. They looked like some 80s pop video posers. Advised a guy on a mountain bike (who was mutually avoiding me) to steer clear of them as there was a 5% risk one of them was infected... Really? Cheers then mate...

Then, the last walk with our third dog. Also solitary. Saw someone in the distance open and shut the metal farm gate - but.. there's an unobstructed side entrance.

It's not duration outdoors. It's distance from people. And touching stuff other people use.

To be fair, I can see why they do specify an hour. Because in a city, there would be far too many idiots in close proximity met, even in that time.

The gov.uk website does NOT specify one hour of exercise a day. No time limit is mentioned. People are parroting this one hour limit and it's complete bollocks.