New coronavirus in/from China

[Vortex2]

Idle musing : If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths, and if we have multiple peaks then the total death rate could get very high.

Let's say not 36 more waves but just 12 before a vaccine is found.

And let's assume 50% improvement in health care.

That gives us 12 x 6k x 0.5 = another 36k deaths to come .. making 42k UK deaths total.

Interestingly a US forecast suggests we may have 66k deaths ... not too far different.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... forecasts/

[vtsnowedin]

Likely Infected - 1 in - 41

Perhaps today, but that is with the economy shut down and people hiding from the virus at home. What will,be the exposed--infected rate in six months to a year.
I see little chance of anyone living a normal life with human to human close proximity if not actual contact not being exposed to the virus eventually. Is it infectious enough to get 100 percent of the population "infected"? Would that lead to a one percent fatality rate worldwide in a year or two? 75 million deaths possible?

[vtsnowedin]

Idle musing : If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths, and if we have multiple peaks then the total death rate could get very high.

Let's say not 36 more waves but just 12 before a vaccine is found.

And let's assume 50% improvement in health care.

That gives us 12 x 6k x 0.5 = another 36k deaths to come .. making 42k UK deaths total.

Interestingly a US forecast suggests we may have 66k deaths ... not too far different.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... forecasts/

Each wave would have a progressively younger and healthier population to attack having already culled the oldest and weakest with the preceding wave. The death rate, vaccine or not, would decline and eventually drop to the levels of common flu.

[vtsnowedin]

Consider that no matter how long you manage to put off getting infected when you do it is your first wave. Some countries will be on their second and third wave before some countries finish their first and there will be some individuals in each wave that missed or avoided the waves that preceded the one that catches up to them.
So that 75 million deaths maybe spread over what is viewed as several waves when in fact most of the deaths in any wave will be those that have missed or avoided the waves before.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths,

With this lockdown, the 2.5% infected now is likely to remain stable. But fatalities over the next few weeks will climb far higher than 6k. And then on to the next group and so on. Blocks of 1-2 % with reducing peaks as people adapt. But it's not peaks of 'only' 6k.

[Vortex2]

Consider that no matter how long you manage to put off getting infected when you do it is your first wave. Some countries will be on their second and third wave before some countries finish their first and there will be some individuals in each wave that missed or avoided the waves that preceded the one that catches up to them.
So that 75 million deaths maybe spread over what is viewed as several waves when in fact most of the deaths in any wave will be those that have missed or avoided the waves before.

As long as you can avoid those waves until the vaccine or medication arrives, that's what counts.

It might even be sensible to dress like an astronaut in mega protective kit to survive until the vaccine/meditation is available.

[Vortex2]

If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths,

With this lockdown, the 2.5% infected now is likely to remain stable. But fatalities over the next few weeks will climb far higher than 6k. And then on to the next group and so on. Blocks of 1-2 % with reducing peaks as people adapt. But it's not peaks of 'only' 6k.

Good point ... and the 'tail' of the wave might be flatter ... but longer .. than the leading edge.

[vtsnowedin]

If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths,

With this lockdown, the 2.5% infected now is likely to remain stable. But fatalities over the next few weeks will climb far higher than 6k. And then on to the next group and so on. Blocks of 1-2 % with reducing peaks as people adapt. But it's not peaks of 'only' 6k.

It appears to me that you will have a peak in daily deaths within the next three weeks and most likely next week. The first wave having gone through and the time between infection having passed. After that even if lockdowns are removed the daily death rate will decline to around 170 a day which will persist for quite a while.
Not a smooth or uniform transition of course as government bumbling and mistakes will cause short term ups and downs in the figures.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

If we are at 2.7% of population infected and we have 6k+ deaths,

With this lockdown, the 2.5% infected now is likely to remain stable. But fatalities over the next few weeks will climb far higher than 6k. And then on to the next group and so on. Blocks of 1-2 % with reducing peaks as people adapt. But it's not peaks of 'only' 6k.

Good point ... and the 'tail' of the wave might be flatter ... but longer .. than the leading edge.

And we need to consider all fatalities not just hospital ones, especially if the spikes are very high. The current hospital number is doubling every week going by 10% daily increments. So assume a peak in ten days of 18k. Add community deaths at 25% call that 23k at peak. The other side of the peak, lets assume the same.
46k from 2.5% infected. Then do it all again, repeatedly, but improving the numbers through learning and adaptation, and, not least, a degree of herd immunity gained.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Ok.. so the optimum time to break isolation and hit the shops for food resupply will be as the fatalities drop halfway past the peak, but before the wider restrictions are relaxed (and thus revving infections up again). And also noting by the local reports which towns are least infected. In my case, Peterborough now looks best avoided.

[Default0ptions]

I did a local Tesco Express today. One in, one out. No hope whatsoever of social distancing inside. Plenty of stock though. No gaps.

[Vortex2]

I did a local Tesco Express today. One in, one out. No hope whatsoever of social distancing inside. Plenty of stock though. No gaps.

I went to the bank and Boots today.

Social distancing rigidly enforced in the bank ... Boots less so.

Almost every shop closed ... but many couples (mostly oldish) strolling around.

Few young people to see.

No masks anywhere so I felt a dick with my FPP2 mask and blue gloves plus anti viral-spray being used everywhere.

Just as well I didn't wear my modified snorkel mask (see DIY Mask topic in Preparations thread for a pic)

[Default0ptions]

No masks around here but everyone trying hard to keep their distance. There seems to be an odd sort of courtesy 'step out of the way' habit building, with smiles and gratitude. It is kind of the costa geriatrica round here though - so we're all being careful.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Looks like about 75% mask usage locally. Seeing gloves more often as well, but it doesn't appear to be common.

[Vortex2]

Looks like about 75% mask usage locally. Seeing gloves more often as well, but it doesn't appear to be common.

... and 95% concealed carry ....