New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Apr 2020, 23:06

BritDownUnder wrote:
adam2 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:Anyone heard from Woodburner?
They are still a member, but advised in a PM that they no longer wish to contribute.
A great shame. I got to like their contrarian thoughts.

Hopefully just busy prepping etc.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 07 Apr 2020, 23:50

Default0ptions wrote:
Snail wrote:I have little interest (not in a callous way) in people apart from my elderly parents. If they get it and die im going to wander around for a couple of years. If they don't, ill wander around for a couple of years. if I get it, and survive, ill wander around for a couple of years. If I get it and die, ill - bother
I looked up some reviews of your SG Bothy Flake; virginia, latakia and a dash of whisky. Sounds good. My favouite is the old Dunhill, now Peterson's, Navy Rolls; virginia and perique.

Wandering around: I've spent much of my life wandering around the midlands as a busker. First with tent and rucksack and later living in a van.

Took some time out for about 18 years raising my daughter as a single father and then had to get back on the road.

Ended up in a bungalow with 19 muscovy ducks and a garden entirely taken over by arttichokes before moving down to the New Forest to look after my mother with Alzheimer's.

She died 29 April last year so I took off in various camper vans, including a circumnavigation of Wales in a 50cc Piaggio Ape, and then spotted this corona thing as a potential problem and came back to look after my dad.

So I can sympathise with the wandering Snail.

Hmm... unanticipated biography there, sorry!

A life with adventure and challenge. Tried navy rolls when I started and liked it too; just not as much. Sorry about your mum and hope you dad still continues to be well for as long as possible. And yourself, and family, of course. And everybody else too.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Apr 2020, 07:24

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:14

UK has only around 2.7% infected

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Summary:

Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible interval])

Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%]
Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%]
Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%]
France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%]
Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]
Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%]
Spain 15% [3.7%-41%]
Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%]
Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%]
United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] <<<<<<<

If true this means that this problem will last for months ... wave after wave of infections and lockdowns ...

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:16

I'm going to go over to my allotment, and partly break up the remaining pallets left there by the previous tenant, and wheelbarrow the sections back home for preparation into raised bed sections.

I've decided this is today's Salvage Economy priority, because I expect Raab C Brexit and his mates to ban outdoor activity soon because Boris would have wanted that.

Staying busy while thinking ahead is the best antidote to being in the middle of the Venn diagram.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:29

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:I'm going to go over to my allotment, and partly break up the remaining pallets left there by the previous tenant, and wheelbarrow the sections back home for preparation into raised bed sections.

I've decided this is today's Salvage Economy priority, because I expect Raab C Brexit and his mates to ban outdoor activity soon because Boris would have wanted that.

Staying busy while thinking ahead is the best antidote to being in the middle of the Venn diagram.

If outdoor activities get banned you can thank the "I'm so special" Lycra clad cyclists and the "The rules don't apply to me" sunbathers, and the "I agree with the rules but my expert analysis indicates that I can ignore them" smart arses.

Default0ptions · Post by **Default0ptions** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:32

I'm going to buy some more cider from the local shop and drink about what to do next ;p

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:35

Vortex2 wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:I'm going to go over to my allotment, and partly break up the remaining pallets left there by the previous tenant, and wheelbarrow the sections back home for preparation into raised bed sections.
We've fed the animals, had a coffee and will now inject a goat with antibiotics.

I also need to go into town after days of isolation ... I need to transfer money between accounts to avoid payments bouncing.

(I don't have web banking but despite several letters to the banks requesting web banking and requesting money transfer to be made I have received absolutely no action or reply)

So I need to get kitted out in mask and gloves ... sigh ...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Apr 2020, 10:57

Vortex2 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:I'm going to go over to my allotment, and partly break up the remaining pallets left there by the previous tenant, and wheelbarrow the sections back home for preparation into raised bed sections.
We've fed the animals, had a coffee and will now inject a goat with antibiotics.

I also need to go into town after days of isolation ... I need to transfer money between accounts to avoid payments bouncing.

(I don't have web banking but despite several letters to the banks requesting web banking and requesting money transfer to be made I have received absolutely no action or reply)

So I need to get kitted out in mask and gloves ... sigh ...
How terribly inconvenient for you. Perhaps you might spare a thought for those who live on a pittance of income with their entire families in tiny living quarters in nature free urban environments who must face such risks every time they step over their front door and who, in lieu of all of the above, may not be quite as pious as you in their observance of the rules currently set out by the government.

Or, perhaps you might not.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Apr 2020, 11:06

LJ: Good Venn diagram. Reminded me of the logic course I took in college in 75.
Today I plan to take the winter cab off the tractor and put the grapple attachment on in preparation of starting to cut and collect next winter's fire wood.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Apr 2020, 12:01

Can we keep it on topic please folks.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Apr 2020, 12:34

Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: We've fed the animals, had a coffee and will now inject a goat with antibiotics.

I also need to go into town after days of isolation ... I need to transfer money between accounts to avoid payments bouncing.

(I don't have web banking but despite several letters to the banks requesting web banking and requesting money transfer to be made I have received absolutely no action or reply)

So I need to get kitted out in mask and gloves ... sigh ...
How terribly inconvenient for you. Perhaps you might spare a thought for those who live on a pittance of income with their entire families in tiny living quarters in nature free urban environments who must face such risks every time they step over their front door and who, in lieu of all of the above, may not be quite as pious as you in their observance of the rules currently set out by the government.

Or, perhaps you might not.
My snide comments are aimed squarely at the smug gits with fancy bikes / latest trainers to whom the rules clearly do not apply.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Apr 2020, 12:35

UndercoverElephant wrote:Can we keep it on topic please folks.

What would be the fun in that?
Just waiting for some new information to arrive as there isn't much else going on anywhere.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Apr 2020, 12:38

On topic. :

Postby vtsnowedin Â» Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:02 am
I'm sitting here with my second cup of the day trying to draw the Venn diagram for Italy. Big circle for the 62 million then three overlapping for old ,diabetic and fat all totally inside the big outer circle. The over lap of the three. Those Italians that are old plus diabetic plus fat comes to 587,487 so with the current 17,127 dead assuming all the dead are in the overlap group,(not true but close enough for this discussion) The Virus has killed 2.9 percent of that group and more are yet to die.
If a lottery ticket had a three percent chance of winning I'd certainly buy one but if the prize is slow death by asphyxiation I think not.
End result: You can't help getting old so you better avoid being fat and or diabetic.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Apr 2020, 13:09

End result: You can't help getting old so you better avoid being fat and or diabetic.

T2D is avoidable to some extent - though it has a genetic component - but T1D isn't. But we T1D's are only 10% of the total. Would be interested to see any analysis of Covid 19 morbidity / mortality between both groups.

This diabetic just hauled two large pallets 500m down and up a hill on a wheelbarrow. Main high priority task done, about half an hour.

********************

I saw that table that said 2.5% infection.

Here's my take on that -

Population 67,800,000
Official figure - (lagging, underreported) 55,242
Recent deaths reported in hospitals 6,149
Likely community and current deaths (+35%) 8,301
Crude Case Fatality Rate 15.0%
Case Multiplier x 30
Likely infected in UK / wider area 1,657,260
Estimated Cuml. Infected Fatality Rate 0.37%
Likely Infected - 1 in - 41