New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **clv101** » 23 Mar 2020, 18:30

boisdevie wrote:Boris to make statement to the country at 2030. My hope is that it's lockdown.

Inevitable.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 23 Mar 2020, 18:41

boisdevie wrote:Boris to make statement to the country at 2030. My hope is that it's lockdown.

I hope so too, but Boris does have a history of bottling it at the last moment. Time to grow a spine Boris.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 19:05

Good talk from Matt Walsh on the two extreme options : health disaster v economic disaster

Maybe we should do what some did yesterday - simply go out to the beach and meet up with friends.

Que sera sera.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wnUpZYMMHU

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 19:37

Coronavirus casualties may be higher in China than reported

Not sure if we have discussed this yet ...

https://telanganatoday.com/coronavirus- ... n-reported

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Mar 2020, 19:43

Vortex2 wrote:Coronavirus casualties may be higher in China than reported

Not sure if we have discussed this yet ...

https://telanganatoday.com/coronavirus- ... n-reported

I'm skeptical. I don't see how China can hide this level of fatalities for any length of time. Why bother lying if you know you will get found out?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:10

Global case count at 22/23 March

Seems to be accelerating ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:36

That's it then. We're in lockdown, with way out in sight.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:45

Risks of going out ..

Probably not needed so much now that we have lock-down ... but this chart shows( VERY roughly!) the chance of you staying healthy if you encounter N people ...

Post by **clv101** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:46

Two weeks late, but lockdown excludes shopping (essential), work (that can't be done from home) and exercise.

The 'work' exclusion is interesting - who's working, who's not?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:48

Little John wrote:There is a way out. It's called pulsed release and will involve a progressively growing percentage of the population who develop immunity to the virus. It will take many months, if not significantly more than a year and it will wreck our economy. But, the alternative would be to allow around 2 million to die and face a potential revolution.

Pulsed is very hard to organise ... but apparently a 'leaky lockdown' has a similar effect.

Post by **clv101** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:55

If the antibody test becomes widely available (assuming recovery = immunity) then that could quickly release millions of 'the recovered'.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:58

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:There is a way out. It's called pulsed release and will involve a progressively growing percentage of the population who develop immunity to the virus. It will take many months, if not significantly more than a year and it will wreck our economy. But, the alternative would be to allow around 2 million to die and face a potential revolution.
Pulsed is very hard to organise ... but apparently a 'leaky lock-down' has a similar effect.

Leaky lock-down... pulsed release... It doesn't matter the exact specifics. The principle is the same. What cannot be done is either the politically impossible "take it on the chin" strategy or the logistically impossible perfectly calibrated mitigation strategy.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 Mar 2020, 20:59

clv101 wrote:If the antibody test becomes widely available (assuming recovery = immunity) then that could quickly release millions of 'the recovered'.

yes

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 Mar 2020, 21:01

UndercoverElephant wrote:That's it then. We're in lockdown, with way out in sight.

There is a way out. It's called pulsed release and will involve a progressively growing percentage of the population who develop immunity to the virus. It will take many months, if not significantly more than a year and it will wreck our economy. But, the alternative would be to allow around 2 million to die and face a potential revolution.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 23 Mar 2020, 21:03

Well. I'll be going to work tomorrow. Will be pleased to have something to do.