New coronavirus in/from China

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 Mar 2020, 06:19

https://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... oment.html

Coronavirus is bloody inconvenient. As much as it knocks everything else off the agenda, it rewrites the script entirely. All of our base assumptions about the shape of the future relationship with the EU have gone out the window. Some of the more hardline positions take on a certain wisdom when faced with a disruption of this nature. Moreover, with imminent shortages and a repurposing of industry, what and how we export is something of a moot point for the time being.

Moreover with this being a global pandemic, with resources stretched to the max, it's becoming every man for himself. As to rules and regulations, they all go on the backburner. Getting things done is more important than compliance right now. You can either be compliant or fast but not both. This is happening in the private sector as well as in government. Hiring and firing policies are going on the bonfire while the governments won't give EU rules a nanosecond's thought in their response to Corona.

This is where the EU has to tread carefully. It can't be seen to be doing anything to obstruct mitigation or containment measures and apart from the PR fluff there's not a lot it can do but get out of the way. All the while it is vulnerable. Member states will be taking credit for any successes while seeking to blame the EU or accuse it of inaction. All the while, borders are closing and the normal rules of trade don't apply.

Never has the EU looked less relevant to people's lives and it looks weaker now than it ever has. I don't say this from a biased leave perspective, rather it appears to be a matter of fact. People are tuned into their national governments while the messages coming from EU institutions are bland, generic and a touch desperate.

Meanwhile, the politics has changed substantially. The panic buying and viral pictures of empty shelves underscores the need for resilience in our supply chains, where questions will now be asked as to whether we can afford to have strategic production offshored to aggressor nations like China. Economic nationalism is coming back with a vengeance. We have already seen some irrationally militant views over British fishing, but now feeding the nation becomes deadly serious business. Agriculture has long been taken for granted, with Tory advisors recently suggesting Britain doesn't need farming. It's a brave man who would venture that opinion in public now.

Corona has exposed the hubris that underpins the entire world trading system. It can adapt to small wars, shortages, trade spats and political uncertainty, but a global pandemic resets the clock on the whole system. Both the EU and the WTO will face a number of existential questions. Once the rules are brought into question there is no putting that genie back in the bottle. Strategic protection is back in fashion. It could undo decades of trade progress.

The EU could attempt to issue penalties for the more serious abuses but in the end it's pissing into the wind. By the time this is over, there'll be a decades' worth of casework backlog to attend to that will more than likely never see the light of day. It will have to take an amnesty approach, after which its authority is forever compromised. The only power it has is the faith placed in it by member states - which is only ever when it's convenient.

As to where this leaves us with Brexit I don't know. The EU will try to restore some of its own order and uphold the basis of its rules but that might be difficult when even member states are not cooperating. All the while the UK will not be in any mind to sign up to anything binding if there is the slightest risk of it impacting our economic reconstruction efforts. To a very large extent, EU model FTAs are a luxury item for stable economies. I'm not sure any of us now qualifies.

Then, of course, there are political opportunities to exploit. There are some disruptions I had previously thought too radical a departure from the status quo, but again, that is a now a moot point. Corona is no deal Brexit on steroids - where it's worth asking if it even matters whether we have a deal right now. Is there much between crashing out or maintaining the transition since neither side is really in much of a position to do anything about it? There simply isn't the resource or political runtime.

It could be that, given the circumstances, a no deal scenario would see the UK making temporary bilateral arrangements with member states that wouldn't previously have been politically possible. That may become the norm thus undermining the EU. There's a game to be played if we're smart about it - but unwise to venture forth until the dust settles.

Grim though Corona is, it is also an opportunity to rethink the fundamentals of our society, not least our relationship with food. Much of our consumer spending is predicated on cheap food underpinned by exploitation and unfair competition in the haulage industry and and heavily reliant on migrant workers, mostly from Africa, who pick fruit and vegetables for a pittance and live in overcrowded tent camps and shantytowns in Italy and Spain.

Meanwhile in the UK, it is not a fringe opinion in the British livestock industry that meat shouldn't be cheap and shouldn't be a daily commodity. I feel the same way about off season fruit and veg. Our convenience approach to food makes us unhealthy and frees up time we do not usefully use. One thing Peter Hitchens is right about - the underlying conditions that will kill us when we get Corona are those caused by our obese, sedentary lifestyles. It's also not unconnected to our poor mental health.

Moreover, it cannot be right that we are importing workers to work the fields for us. Now that Corona has wiped out a number of jobs, there is no shortage of people available for those jobs we allegedly "won't do". I suspect there will be a lot of soul searching to come in the near future as Corona holds up a mirror to British culture, especially when order starts to break down. There will be a number of areas where it will be glaringly apparent that we cannot afford to neglect certain ongoing concerns any longer - and we shall have to start making serious demands.

All the old certainties are now gone. The petty obsessions of Brexit watchers on both sides are obsolete. The future is now a blank cheque. We know things are bad and set to get worse, and the geopolitical situation could rapidly deteriorate too. This could go beyond even my worst nightmares. That said, I can't be the only one who sees a silver lining. I've long felt we were in a phase of managed decline. With Corona as an accelerant, it could be a rebirth moment for British society. This is certainly the end of the normal I have known - and I'm not sorry about it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 Mar 2020, 06:23

leroy wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Wild thought : a charismatic leader aged say 30 or 40 could reclaim control of the state at the expense of the old people at risk.
Thanks for the offer of a chat Vortex. I'm okay, cheers though.

I have long thought that a Maoist style Red Guard is on the cards at some point: channeling the anger of the young against the profligacy of the old(er) as things come to pass.

What a load pf old bollocks. Old people are no more to blame for this than young people.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 23 Mar 2020, 07:02

Your long read for the day - Hammer and Dance

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 23 Mar 2020, 07:23

Gidday mates!

Latest First Dog

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ont-go-out

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Mar 2020, 09:20

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... n-11962132

Boris Johnson is attempting to race sweeping new laws on coronavirus through the Commons in a day, as the UK faces the prospect of a total lockdown in the next 24 hours.

leroy · Post by **leroy** » 23 Mar 2020, 10:26

Little John wrote:What a load pf old bollocks. Old people are no more to blame for this than young people.

Didn't stop the success of the Red Guard though did it? Perceived profligacy would do just as well.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:13

Thoughts ...

It's now clear that the British Bulldog Spirit has mostly been killed off over the last decades.

Many people today seem to have lost - or never ever had - their moral compass ando/r IQ and/or any sense of decency.

Following this chaos - if my wife & I survive - I would be tempted to join a community or town or region which had a more old fashioned or structured approach to life.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:16

A friend of mine is being forced to continue working against her will. Her essential job? - greetings cards metchandiser. Her company will cause people to die because of their f***ing greed.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:18

boisdevie wrote:A friend of mine is being forced to continue working against her will. Her essential job? - greetings cards metchandiser. Her company will cause people to die because of their f***ing greed.

I hope that notes are being taken - payback time will come in due course.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:27

Activities ..

We finally finished the anti-rabbit fence around our growing area yesterday.

My wife is planting all sorts of seed as we speak.

I have been hauling brash (large branches etc left over from tree and hedge trimming) into position along our road boundary.

This will/should encourage perps to jump the wooden farm gate should they want to steal chickens or eggs or worse.

The gate area will then be my main point to monitor and secure.

I'm also adding barbed wire to the gate to deter casual thieves.

I have some IR wireless alarms which I will set up around the gate area and also around the house.

If I can get it to start I will move my tractor near the gate to mount a wireless camera on it - powered by its 12-volt battery.

Other less friendly 'measures' are to hand ...

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:41

We are starting to hear that construction sites will soon be shutting down. Not surprising really.

Bizarrely, we have probably got about 3 to 4 months of full time work ahead of us. One of our very good clients is, I think, happy for tender documents to be prepared and then placed on the shelf ready to be utilised at a later date. We will be discussing via a group chat in the next day or so.

We have a relatively rare business set up. It's husband and wife only. We live 3 minutes walk away from our office and have have 24/7 remote access into the office block.

It's likely therefore that we will be sat in our office working away for the next few months whilst everything stops around us. I'd rather be productive than rely on the state as long as this can be done safely (which it can).

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 23 Mar 2020, 11:54

Bedrock Barney wrote:We are starting to hear that construction sites will soon be shutting down. Not surprising really.

Bizarrely, we have probably got about 3 to 4 months of full time work ahead of us. One of our very good clients is, I think, happy for tender documents to be prepared and then placed on the shelf ready to be utilised at a later date. We will be discussing via a group chat in the next day or so.

We have a relatively rare business set up. It's husband and wife only. We live 3 minutes walk away from our office and have have 24/7 remote access into the office block.

It's likely therefore that we will be sat in our office working away for the next few months whilst everything stops around us. I'd rather be productive than rely on the state as long as this can be done safely (which it can).

Once we have made the site secure, I will start using the computer centre I set up at home. Haven't decided what exact work to do 'tho ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 Mar 2020, 12:18

Next door but one from us have got it. Utterly predicatable - five kids, all boys, in a not-very-big 3 bed terraced house. Three of the kids had fever and coughing yesterday, now the parents both reporting that it feels like a concrete block pressing down on their chests. She obese.

No tests of course, but they are pretty certain they've got it and they are probably right.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 23 Mar 2020, 12:20

I'm still working which feels very surreal - the client wants the bathroom airing cupboard finished for the 31st when they plan to move in from W London!! I'm not taking any risks here - the place is empty - I won't work here unless it is empty, But it does feel a bit like polishing the brasswork on the Titanic as it slowly sinks beneath the waves.
I'm self employed so need to earn IF I can safely - I don't know how long my reserves will last. In fact I don't know what the real buying power of a fiver will be when the dust settles.

careful_eugene · Post by **careful_eugene** » 23 Mar 2020, 12:47

Bedrock Barney wrote:We are starting to hear that construction sites will soon be shutting down. Not surprising really.

Bizarrely, we have probably got about 3 to 4 months of full time work ahead of us. One of our very good clients is, I think, happy for tender documents to be prepared and then placed on the shelf ready to be utilised at a later date. We will be discussing via a group chat in the next day or so.

We have a relatively rare business set up. It's husband and wife only. We live 3 minutes walk away from our office and have have 24/7 remote access into the office block.

It's likely therefore that we will be sat in our office working away for the next few months whilst everything stops around us. I'd rather be productive than rely on the state as long as this can be done safely (which it can).

We're almost still business as usual, only one of our installations has been cancelled and this was due to other issues. All the other sites are still working. There is a school of thought here that as the railways are operating at a reduced level, we could get quite a lot of engineering work done as possessions are more likely to be available!
If you have seen the film Carry on up the Khyber where they are having a formal dinner with a string quartet whilst a battle is being fought outside, I feel like the character brother Belcher (played by Peter Butterworth).