New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:01

Bedrock Barney wrote:Reference to my earlier post, I have received the message as an image (I don't have a hosting site) so have typed out word by word below (from 11.55am this morning). Scary stuff.

Hi folks, a grim message for mother's day, I'm afraid. My sister, a doctor, is back in a north London hospital after a day away and says it is absolutely catastrophic. They've run out of ventilators and she is having to palliate people in their 50s with no underlying health conditions - people who will certainly die on their own with no visitors. People are waiting to go into the intensive care unit in their 30s and 40s who are likely to die waiting. Her message is don't go out for any reason unless you can actually not survive without it. And also please spend the day calling or writing to everyone you know telling them what is happening that they should do the same. Her words are 'you have to tell everyone you know or you'll regret it for the rest of you life". All love in these terrible times xx

Not sure what else to say tbh.

Is this really, definitely 100% genuine?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:12

Do all of you have a will made out signed and witnessed? If not that would be something constructive to get done.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:16

vtsnowedin wrote:Do all of you have a will made out signed and witnessed? If not that would be something constructive to get done.

Somewhere.

Best to get another done - I did ask for a link to a free template earlier but no-one suggested anything.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:19

Vortex2 wrote:
Bedrock Barney wrote:Reference to my earlier post, I have received the message as an image (I don't have a hosting site) so have typed out word by word below (from 11.55am this morning). Scary stuff.

Hi folks, a grim message for mother's day, I'm afraid. My sister, a doctor, is back in a north London hospital after a day away and says it is absolutely catastrophic. They've run out of ventilators and she is having to palliate people in their 50s with no underlying health conditions - people who will certainly die on their own with no visitors. People are waiting to go into the intensive care unit in their 30s and 40s who are likely to die waiting. Her message is don't go out for any reason unless you can actually not survive without it. And also please spend the day calling or writing to everyone you know telling them what is happening that they should do the same. Her words are 'you have to tell everyone you know or you'll regret it for the rest of you life". All love in these terrible times xx

Not sure what else to say tbh.
Is this really, definitely 100% genuine?

I did hesitate to pass it on. It has come to me from my daughter via her friend and in turn from his dad (who I have met and he is very level headed).
If this is indeed happening in London we will find out for sure in the next 48 to 72 hours.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:29

Meanwhile significant numbers of sheeple are enjoying the extra bank holidays.
"unprecedented crowds" flock to holiday destinations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:30

Wills ..

You can find VERY basic free will templates here ... should suit me 'tho.

100% to the wife, failing that shared amongst the kids.

https://www.compactlaw.co.uk/free-legal-documents.html

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:49

Going to the pharmacy sets off my alarm bells. Being two very well-prepped self-isolating diabetics here, gonna give this a try for prescription pickup once up and running.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable

I think it might fall over. But there's also something similar going on in the village.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 22 Mar 2020, 16:49

We get 1/2 a cat each - wait, no thats the divorce.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:00

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/22/us/georgi ... index.html

Emma, a 12-year-old girl, is "fighting for her life" in an Atlanta hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus, according to her cousin.
Justin Anthony told CNN that Emma was diagnosed with pneumonia on March 15 and tested positive for coronavirus on Friday night. As of Saturday, she was on a ventilator and is currently in stable condition, Anthony said.
Emma had no pre-existing conditions.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:24

HMG new case at 22March : 5683

My prediction from yesterday: 6481

This final data point is clearly out of line on my graphs.

My model is maybe broken, or reporting is failing or the rate is dropping.

That said the fit still has R^2 - 0.995

However the most recent data point being so low pushes out the final dates by about one day.

The match tomorrow will be interesting - my model says tomorrow should read 7763.

If still low I would guess that it's an HMG reporting change/problem as our lock-down measure haven't had much time to take effect.

Anyway, we are looking at a true count of infected today as being around 200k.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:35

Vortex2 wrote:HMG new case at 22March : 5683

My prediction from yesterday: 6481

This final data point is clearly out of line on my graphs.

My model is maybe broken, or reporting is failing or the rate is dropping.

That said the fit still has R^2 - 0.995

Hospital capacity constraints being reached, possibly?

Does the fatality rate match that curve?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:35

Cummings denies coming up with the "let the pensioners die" policy:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... people-die?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:40

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:HMG new case at 22March : 5683

My prediction from yesterday: 6481

This final data point is clearly out of line on my graphs.

My model is maybe broken, or reporting is failing or the rate is dropping.

That said the fit still has R^2 - 0.995
Hospital capacity constraints being reached, possibly?

Does the fatality rate match that curve?

Dunno - I need a source of the daily fatality data.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:44

Testing results are probably running late being Sunday. Expect return to plot in next day 9r two

Post by **adam2** » 22 Mar 2020, 17:50

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:HMG new case at 22March : 5683
My prediction from yesterday: 6481
This final data point is clearly out of line on my graphs.
My model is maybe broken, or reporting is failing or the rate is dropping.
That said the fit still has R^2 - 0.995
Hospital capacity constraints being reached, possibly?
Does the fatality rate match that curve?

I would the rate of increase to slow a bit due to the rather half hearted measures put in place for this purpose.