New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 22 Mar 2020, 12:38

SO...lady on the Marr show talking about a story in the FT about how the government's herd immunity policy came into being. Turns out it was the brainchild of Dominic Cummings. Who'd have guessed?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Mar 2020, 12:41

Vortex2 wrote:This will change the use of comms ..

My family just organised a 5-way Skype Mothers Days meetup.

Once we sorted out a few newbie glitches, it went very well ... most impressed.

I suspect that this virus will increase the use of Skype etc greatly - so I would expect reduced car, rail & plane travel in the future.

Yes something to look forward to is the demise of the weekly project status meeting. Think of the productivity gain from the time not wasted in traveling to and sitting in these usually useless meetings.
My sister-in-law skyped us yesterday to get a break from her five children at home in a small suburban fifties house. As a restaurant worker she is out of work along with the two oldest part timers so the income stream has stopped. If it drags on they may have to move in with us in a while.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 12:47

kenneal - lagger wrote:The lower rate of transmission in the far east is probably because of more "paternal", shall we say, regimes than in the west and, in the case of Japan, a population which largely sees conformity as a virtue. They will end up with the same rate of infection as us unless they can lock down their populations until a mass vaccination program has been effected. They will have to enforce that lock down for at least a year and probably 18 months.

They will save a lot of their older population but will that eventually be a good thing. We are part of a world wide experiment in human health and economics and, if I survive it, it will be interesting to see what the future is like.

Regarding VT's comment about the rich always finding a respirator available, it might be true in the US where private medicine in the norm but in Europe and the UK there is a very much lower provision so private clinics will fill up more quickly and governments are likely to control the distribution of new ventilators much more than in the US. If they don't there could be much social unrest.

.... it seems from the Italian reports that you stay on a ventilator for weeks and then die ... with only a tiny handful of patients surviving ...

In other words being assigned to a ventilator is really a one-way ticket.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 22 Mar 2020, 12:48

Just received a copy of a terrible message which originates from a Doctor in a London hospital. They are overwhelmed and it's not just old folk. Lots of people in their 30's and 40's in a bad way.

I will check the source (it looks totally legit) and then see if I'm able to share some or all of the message.

We are now going into pretty much a full lock down here at home.

Events will move on incredibly this coming week.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 12:54

Bedrock Barney wrote:Just received a copy of a terrible message which originates from a Doctor in a London hospital. They are overwhelmed and it's not just old folk. Lots of people in their 30's and 40's in a bad way.

I will check the source (it looks totally legit) and then see if I'm able to share some or all of the message.

We are now going into pretty much a full lock down here at home.

Events will move on incredibly this coming week.

Doctor reveals terror as coronavirus rampages through London hospital â€“ â€˜Little we can doâ€™

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12585 ... entilators

This article which suggests that some poorly UK patients are receiving morphine rather than a ventilator shows that it's tough out there.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 22 Mar 2020, 13:04

Take the frailty test.

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng159/ ... o-hospital

Official guidance has been issued to NHS intensive care doctors on how to decide which coronavirus patients should get critical care.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 22 Mar 2020, 13:05

I think I scored 2.4

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 13:44

http://www.mywelshpool.co.uk/viewernews/ArticleId/18459

Townies are fleeing to rural holiday homes or to camping sites for 'safety' ... to the disgust of the locals.

It's happening in the Scottish Highlands, Cornwall, Wales, the South-West ...

There is a biggish camping etc site just a 100 metres from us .. I may wander over later to see if it looks fuller than expected.

It's used mainly by Brummies who look at us 'farmers' as if we are an alien species. They also tend to forget to pay for the eggs they take from our roadside stall.

Also happening abroad: https://www.france24.com/en/20200319-eu ... oronavirus

The rich do thing bigger & better:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Mar 2020, 14:11

Looking at Campgrounds in the USA They are clearly not an option for those that do not already have an RV parked there year round. Many grounds have a good percentage of the sites so rented and of course the retirees that own them should be able to use them as needed . But the rest of the sites are intended to be filled up on weekends with a lot empty mid week to allow septic systems and the like to recover from the weekend surge. Fill them all 24/7 and things will back up within a couple of weeks.
Vacation homes on the other hand are another matter entirely. Being in rural areas they all have their own septic system sized for the number of bedrooms and their own water well or spring so place no strain on public infrastructure. Vermont has 58,500 such vacation homes so could perhaps take in a quarter million at four to a house.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 22 Mar 2020, 14:22

UndercoverElephant wrote:SO...lady on the Marr show talking about a story in the FT about how the government's herd immunity policy came into being. Turns out it was the brainchild of Dominic Cummings. Who'd have guessed?

I am reading a lot of bullshit about herd immunity.

Herd immunity is the only strategy available. It will either be via a vaccine or it will be by pulsed release. Or, it will be via uncontrolled infection leading to an early peak.

Total eradication via complete and total lock-down is not possible because this thing is out in every corner of the globe now and would require simultaneous and total global lock-down. That is never, ever going to happen.

So, herd immunity is all that is available. The only choice we get to make is how we get there. And even that is not really a choice.

"All at once" is not politically possible due to the horrendous body count and a vaccine could be two years away and might not work.

Additionally, if we locked totally down for a couple of years waiting for a vaccine our economy would not merely crash, it would be utterly destroyed. In which case, what the hell would we pay with for the 60% of food and even higher percentage of energy this country needs to import?

Pulsed release is all there is and even that is going to wreck our economy. It just might not destroy it utterly, that is all.

And yes, I am aware this thing could mutate and come back and infect people with a new variant. However, there would likely be some, at least partial, immunity to it from the previous epidemic.

Pulsed release is as it gets and a vaccine would provide no more protection against a new variant.

Pulsed release is all there is.

And yes, I am well aware this thing could mutate and come back and infect people with a new variant. However, there would likely be some, at least partial, immunity to it from the previous epidemic. That is as good as it gets and would be no better if we did it via a vaccine.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 22 Mar 2020, 14:33

Oh the irony - just watching the BBC weekend news on iPlayer - talking about the need for social distancing - so the presenter and their correspondent are sat at the same desk, about 1m apart, neither of them wearing a mask. You really couldn't make this shit up.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Mar 2020, 14:58

See this, from a person I know and have a lot of respect for:
https://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2020/03/ ... o.html?m=1

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 22 Mar 2020, 15:07

Village blocked:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/ ... e_bala_in/

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 22 Mar 2020, 15:44

Reference to my earlier post, I have received the message as an image (I don't have a hosting site) so have typed out word by word below (from 11.55am this morning). Scary stuff.

Hi folks, a grim message for mother's day, I'm afraid. My sister, a doctor, is back in a north London hospital after a day away and says it is absolutely catastrophic. They've run out of ventilators and she is having to palliate people in their 50s with no underlying health conditions - people who will certainly die on their own with no visitors. People are waiting to go into the intensive care unit in their 30s and 40s who are likely to die waiting. Her message is don't go out for any reason unless you can actually not survive without it. And also please spend the day calling or writing to everyone you know telling them what is happening that they should do the same. Her words are 'you have to tell everyone you know or you'll regret it for the rest of you life". All love in these terrible times xx

Not sure what else to say tbh.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Mar 2020, 15:57

(I don't have a hosting site)

To host images free, use:

https://imgbb.com/

No account needed - just upload ... the image MUST be a JPEG.

Then select the 'full html' option and copy the link text.

Paste that text into Powerswitch,

Now remove the start and end of the text to leave the .jpg url+filename only

Select the url+filename and press the Img button in Powerswitch,