New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 20:44

Little John wrote:UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%

Is that time adjusted?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Mar 2020, 21:14

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%
Is that time adjusted?

Bear in mind the hospitals are not quite yet all at capacity, as far as we know.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Mar 2020, 21:23

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%
Is that time adjusted?

No, it's just 234 deaths from 5027 cases. If you divide 234 deaths by 207 cases a fortnight ago you get a fatality rate of 117% !

Obviously there were WAY more than 207 cases two weeks ago. 10-20x as many, which puts the fatality rate around 6-12%.

Three options:
Either there are dramatically more the the 10-20x more cases than officially recorded,
or the fatality rate is really high,
or you can die well within two weeks.

If the reality is ~10%, and also impacting younger people - the government (all governments) would be quite happy to go along with the current narrative of 1-3% and mostly elderly/sick.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Mar 2020, 21:39

Vortex2 wrote:Another horrific video from Italy ..

One .. just one ... recovering ICU person .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q

That is coming to every hospital in London, next week.

And another one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFb6kuq ... e=youtu.be

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 21:40

Italy is currently at 9 percent of "confirmed cases" dead. I don't know what exactly defines your case as confirmed in Italy but doubt they have had the ability to test enough people to have a firm percentage of the population that is infected. At any rate I see no reason to expect results in the UK or the USA ending up any better then Italy's. My WAG for the US is now 100,000 dead by mid April.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:02

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:Another horrific video from Italy ..

One .. just one ... recovering ICU person .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INmEciVm-6Q
That is coming to every hospital in London, next week.

And another one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFb6kuq ... e=youtu.be

Almost no-one leaves the ICU alive ... and/or takes many weeks to be able to leave ICU

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:07

Those stupid kids licking toilet seats, or coughing over supermarket food or having corona-parties should be made to watch those vidoes .. or work on the wards.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:10

Vortex2 wrote:Those stupid kids licking toilet seats, or coughing over supermarket food or having corona-parties should be made to watch those vidoes .. or work on the wards.

Or dig the graves.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:12

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%
Is that time adjusted?

no, so it's almost certainly worse than that.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:14

clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:UK CFR currently standing at 4.64%
Is that time adjusted?
No, it's just 234 deaths from 5027 cases. If you divide 234 deaths by 207 cases a fortnight ago you get a fatality rate of 117% !

Obviously there were WAY more than 207 cases two weeks ago. 10-20x as many, which puts the fatality rate around 6-12%.

Three options:
Either there are dramatically more the the 10-20x more cases than officially recorded,
or the fatality rate is really high,
or you can die well within two weeks.

If the reality is ~10%, and also impacting younger people - the government (all governments) would be quite happy to go along with the current narrative of 1-3% and mostly elderly/sick.

Does the case count shifting to seriously ill hospital admissions distort all this, so deaths would occur soon after admission. And there will be a further distortion after hospital capacity is exceeded.

One thing we may count on is that the total deaths figure will be increasingly obscured, being politically sensitive. And the size of the herd will remain unknown too, if only because people sweat it out and can't raise their GP, nor 111. Let alone get tested.

Just quite a few Bedford four tonners or whatever they have these days, on constant night manoeuvres to disused RAF sites and the like.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:14

If ICU admission is so unlikely to be successful, i think that I would rather die with my family.

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:32

There are a few things we can do to improve our prospects, as with careful isolation we might avoid the Wu for months.

My own plan is Isolation, Zinc Supplement and Exercise. I'll try to get my lungs into good shape and lose some weight.

Any other ideas ?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:44

Right now it's not quite yer Social Distancing at Tescos, fighting over the last pack of spaghetti. But once the virus is raging, everyone will shelter. Could be a paradox then - stocks could be partly restored and with very few shoppers about. Ideal time to top up. And the virus could be seen in plain sight - you could assume it was everyone. So use the automatic self service tills and latex gloves, and a mask to help keep people away, and carefully clean the purchases, once back home. Then as the virus subsided, everyone would emerge, and that scene would be best avoided, as fights break out again due to the cabin fever.

Post by **adam2** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:48

A vitamin supplement might help with general health, especially if the unfolding emergency restricts availability of healthier foods.

The medical profession generally states that vitamin supplements are NOT needed provided that ones diet is well balanced.
However circumstances could preclude a balanced diet.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Mar 2020, 22:48

we've worked out, if push comes to shove and with careful calorie counting, we have about 4 - 5 months of food. So, that's it for total stocks. All we'll be doing from now on in is replenishing. We live near a river so no shortage of water if the water grid goes down. But, we need a way of properly cleaning it so that is something I am now devoting much thought and eventual action to. We also have an old disused well in our back yard (it's all underground streams round here). So, that is something else I am considering investigating.