New coronavirus in/from China

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:05

Option #3 with one cravat. There will be no need to periodically lift restrictions. Any government imposed lock-down will have enough leaks in it due to public resistance and government ineptitude to provide all the infections the system can withstand.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:08

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
Option (3) is clearly the only viable one, in my view.
Are we certain that people who have been infected and recovered cannot be re-infected?

No we are not. But we might reasonably surmise it is significantly less than those who will not. Additionally, it does not really matter anyway since herd immunity, if only to this specific variant of the virus, is inevitable. The only question we need to answer is how we get to that point.

None of the answers to that question are good and are likely to lead to a 1930s level of economic depression followed by a post war level of national debt.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:09

vtsnowedin wrote:Option #3 with one cravat. There will be no need to periodically lift restrictions. Any government imposed lock-down will have enough leaks in it due to public resistance and government ineptitude to provide all the infections the system can withstand.

Yeah, I had also considered that as being likely V

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:11

Zero Hedge predicts total meltdown of the markets and price of gold to go sky high:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-g ... m-imminent

Post by **clv101** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:36

UndercoverElephant wrote:Zero Hedge predicts total meltdown of the markets and price of gold to go sky high:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/von-g ... m-imminent

Which is not a million miles from start they have been saying for the last decade!

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:55

You did notice that Guru Ferguson has it, after a gov meeting. Says it's all over westminster [no tears here]

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 18 Mar 2020, 11:57

fuzzy wrote:You did notice that Guru Ferguson has it, after a gov meeting. Says it's all over westminster [no tears here]

I wonder if a politician dies from the virus it would lead to government policy going a bit more bonkers as then the problem would suddenly seem very real and very very close to home. I already seem Tim Farron is self isolating.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:06

If the UK is to be in total or near total shut down for 6 months or so, the economic impact is going to be catastrophic. We are seeing all of future projects on hold. We have heard today that a local architectural firm has just laid off 4 staff and we are only at the beginning of the lockdown.

From our perspective, we have decent cash reserves and can weather the storm but I know we are the exception to the rule. Unemployment numbers will soon be as exponential as the virus numbers (despite the platitudes being issued by the government)

I've been talking to lots of very nervous people in the contruction industry over the last 3 days. Projects are continuing on site but perhaps for not much longer. You obviously can't work from home if you are a carpenter, plumber, bricklayer!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:13

DODGY TAX AVOIDERS trying to hire 100,000 extra staff: https://blog.aboutamazon.com/operations ... -new-roles

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:15

Bedrock Barney wrote:If the UK is to be in total or near total shut down for 6 months or so, the economic impact is going to be catastrophic. We are seeing all of future projects on hold. We have heard today that a local architectural firm has just laid off 4 staff and we are only at the beginning of the lockdown.

From our perspective, we have decent cash reserves and can weather the storm but I know we are the exception to the rule. Unemployment numbers will soon be as exponential as the virus numbers (despite the platitudes being issued by the government)

I've been talking to lots of very nervous people in the contruction industry over the last 3 days. Projects are continuing on site but perhaps for not much longer. You obviously can't work from home if you are a carpenter, plumber, bricklayer!

Longer term we will have a society full of working happy young people who have been infected due to carelessness and survived whilst the very cautious old and sick will be hiding in holes or hobbling around with wrecked lungs post-infection.

The racial mix of the country will also change drastically - recent arrivals are young whilst the indigenous are older.

I'm surprised that the younger population haven't called for inaction - "just get it over".

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:30

I'm sure that after a few weeks of being stuck at home etc many new ways of doing business will appear.

For example I can imagine vastly improved on-line retail portals appearing : say 3D online shops.

It will be interesting to see how firms address the situation.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:33

Option #3 with one cravat.

Need a gentleman's smoking jacket to go with that, to impart a natty appearance even though indoors.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:36

There's no way we can adequately control the dim.

A friend reports -

I went to the Co-op and managed to get a few more tins. It's small, so not many customers, which is good. Unfortunately, some of them are workers from the industrial estate, one of whom was telling his mate that hardly anyone has died (I think he meant in the locality that constitutes his tiny intellectual world), it's blown out of all proportion and he went to the pub last night. Appealing to people's sense of responsibility just ain't going to work in this country.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 18 Mar 2020, 12:51

The Govt 'panic' is getting quite clear ... so I can only assume that an obvious leading edge of the virus wave must be arriving within the next week or so.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 18 Mar 2020, 13:07

Vortex2 wrote:The Govt 'panic' is getting quite clear ... so I can only assume that an obvious leading edge of the virus wave must be arriving within the next week or so.

At the moment, this is the only 'rational' reason for collapsing the economy. Either way we are all in big trouble.