New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 17 Mar 2020, 22:44

deleted

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Mar 2020, 23:02

Vortex....your numbers are basically meaningless, because they do not take into account changes in rules and behaviour. The probabilities are based on assumptions about how large the epidemic will be, and how long it will take. We don't know either of those numbers, because we don't know what the government will do or how people will respond.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 17 Mar 2020, 23:03

delteted

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 17 Mar 2020, 23:43

Vortex2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Vortex....your numbers are basically meaningless, because they do not take into account changes in rules and behaviour. The probabilities are based on assumptions about how large the epidemic will be, and how long it will take. We don't know either of those numbers, because we don't know what the government will do or how people will respond.
OK- no more charts or analysis from me.

On the other hand, comparing the "natural" infection curve with the actual curve might show us how effective the measures are.

Post by **clv101** » 17 Mar 2020, 23:54

UndercoverElephant wrote:At least if we own a property - even if it is just sitting there empty - then at the end of this we still own that property. If we've instead got a lump of cash sitting in a bank account, there is surely a risk that by the time this pandemic is over, it will be worth a lot less.

Perhaps the question could be rephrased as "what the hell is this pandemic going to do to UK property prices?" Is now the time time to sell, and sit on cash, or just hold on to the property?

Big question, no one knows. If there are a quarter of a million excess deaths, mostly older and homeowners, then property prices could crash. Especially as many many other people will be in economic hardship due to the depression. Flood of property.on the market, lack of cash to buy.

On the other hand, maybe we are looking at a period of significant inflation triggered by government printing and shortages of essential products.

It's a risk to hold property or cash. If it were me, I'd prefer to hold cash over a 2nd property I didn't need to live in.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Mar 2020, 00:40

I have produced a natural curve spreadsheet for the very purpose of comparison. So far the actual numbers are exceeding my spreadsheet with data I extrapolated from the 12th. I based the daily increase on an average of the previous 7 days. It came out at around 28%. But, has increased slightly since then. So the real world data is a bit higher than I have predicted.

To be precise, my spreadsheet puts the predicted figures for today (the 17th) based on an extrapolation form the 12th at 1,874 infected and 56 dead. As it is, the real world data for today is 1,950 infected and 71 dead for the UK.

Currently my spreadsheet, based on an unrestricted curve of infection, puts a peak of around 48 million in late April.

So the extent to which the curve is significantly flattened and lengthened (or not) relative to that prediction gives at least a rough approximation of the effectiveness of any measures

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ilemx3g4cm8zn ... 3.xls?dl=0

Post by **clv101** » 18 Mar 2020, 00:40

This is a good summary of the Imperial study:

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status ... 57696?s=19

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 07:16

He's made comparisons citing Holocaust / WW2 numbers which are completely off. The original paper exec summary doesn't need re-summarising.

The scary bit it highlights is that if numbers stay low, then simpletons like Trump's ilk assume it's because the Wu is all overblown. Because the prevention work is unseen. The Y2K fallacy - with mega-high stakes.

That proposed on-off medium term strategy looks like ABS braking, to keep both the economy's wheels from locking, and the CFR reaching insane levels. But such precise repeated control measures won't wash with the undisciplined simpletons.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 18 Mar 2020, 07:32

UndercoverElephant wrote:Advice sought on property vs cash.

We aren't BTLers, but my wife bought a maisonette a few years ago with some money she inherited from her Dad. We've recently had it on the market after a bad experience with a tenant who didn't pay any rent for 9 months. Just wanted to convert it into cash and then buy a bigger house (for ourselves) maybe with a bit of land. Market has been very quiet since January, but today we got a cash offer. We don't know what to do, because we're worried about the monetary system. At least if we own a property - even if it is just sitting there empty - then at the end of this we still own that property. If we've instead got a lump of cash sitting in a bank account, there is surely a risk that by the time this pandemic is over, it will be worth a lot less.

Perhaps the question could be rephrased as "what the hell is this pandemic going to do to UK property prices?" Is now the time time to sell, and sit on cash, or just hold on to the property?

Ideally I would sell, but I think now is too unknown/risky re banking, buyer etc. Contact your local hospital and ask how to become a listed rental for staff. Like a student let, but medical people. Bulk buy some cleaning liquids now. You can still get shock chlorine powder [bleach] for swimming pools.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:04

clv101 wrote:
On the other hand, maybe we are looking at a period of significant inflation triggered by government printing and shortages of essential products.

It's a risk to hold property or cash. If it were me, I'd prefer to hold cash over a 2nd property I didn't need to live in.

Anticipating a long crisis, I splurged on still cheap / available consumer goods alongside the tinned food. Replaced the microwave (kept the other as a spare) likewise, vacuum cleaner, the BBQ as backup cooker, a new Chromebook, car tyres including a loose unfitted, a printer that uses bottle refills, not cartridges. About Â£1000 in all. All of it made in China.

However, guitar strings were from the USA.

Maybe I'll soon be able to get that investment grade dream purple quilt top PRS for mere pennies off Ebay. (To play the blues, not display...) Being expensive and discretionary, and the cheaper ones made in Asia or Mexico, I'd imagine many guitar builders will now fall. Gibson were already in deep doodoo.

Top-end guitars, like other fine art, have long been seen as alternative investments. You would not believe the prices of early Les Pauls and Strats. Of course, this is all a bubble. Only ageing Boomers like me are interested in guitars and firmly stuck in the 70s.

Note - Brazilian rosewood is no longer allowed, per CITES...

https://wildwestguitars.com/electric/pr ... -fretboard

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:14

Healthy 17-year-old Korean has just died from COVID-19. No comorbidities. Died of multiple organ failure caused by this virus.

Source: https://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/5311057

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:23

UndercoverElephant wrote:Healthy 17-year-old Korean has just died from COVID-19. No comorbidities. Died of multiple organ failure caused by this virus.

Source: https://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/5311057

UE, your anecdotal case is basically meaningless, because it does not take into account what proportion of the total number of sick it represents. In the absence of that, it may be important, or it may mean essentially nothing.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:30

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Healthy 17-year-old Korean has just died from COVID-19. No comorbidities. Died of multiple organ failure caused by this virus.

Source: https://www.nocutnews.co.kr/news/5311057
UE, your anecdotal case is basically meaningless, because it does not take into account what proportion of the total number of sick it represents. In the absence of that, it may be important, or it may mean essentially nothing.

There are outliers. Maybe copped a high initial viral load (eg, sneezed at). Or autoimmune disorder, like onset of Type 1 diabetes.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:33

This is the guy behind the Imperial College report, key government advisor:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 7669511782

Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID-19 in Westminster.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 18 Mar 2020, 08:46

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