New coronavirus in/from China

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:00

Boris giving his first press conference. Complete washout. Asking all people to reduce social mixing and increase victims to isolate 14 days. Emergency staff are to be withdrawn from mass events, but no talk of closing banning or enforcing anything. London is a hotspot. Self isolation extended to household isolation

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:09

Little John wrote:Watching Johnson right now. He is looking like a rabbit in the headlights.

Jesus wept

Whatever happened to a peak in Summer???

I think one of you sent him a copy of my chart:

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:10

Emergency staff are to be withdrawn from mass events, but no talk of closing banning or enforcing anything.

They won't get insurance, so this is a very clever way of blocking events.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:14

my spreadsheet has always predicted the peak in late April.

A million people or more are going to die in their homes

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:17

Little John wrote:my spreadsheet has always predicted the peak in late April

My data is based on an exponential regression ... but I haven't allowed for any mechanisms softening and reversing the slope to give an actual peak.

Either way, I would prefer to be on the Antarctic Survey this April!

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:21

... UK supermarkets will be busy tonight ...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:21

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:28

PS_RalphW wrote:Walking the dog this afternoon I noticed the sky was unusually blue for the time of year. Then I realised - very few aircraft contrails out of Stanstead. The USA warmed measurably in the days after 9/11/2001. It is going to be hot summer.

Yes. This was already looking like a pivotal year for everything Climate Change, but this is going to put rocket boosters underneath that.

Post by **adam2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:32

I have just received my Tesco home delivery. Many items that appeared to be available when I placed the order, were out of stock.

I have also attempted to place my NEXT order, for delivery next Monday. No deliveries are available until next Wednesday, 10 days waiting list.
Next day delivery is normally available if ordering reasonably early in the day.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:37

I don't think I'll issue any more models/predictions ... the data from HMG is no longer trustworthy.

However that graph I just posted is probably close enough, plus/minus a week WITHOUT allowing for lock-down.

The recent lock-downs carried out by people looking ahead - and now by edict - will move the graph to the right by N days.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:49

V2 - was thinking that the 'how dangerous to meet 1 or 25 people' tables are good for estimating growing risk, but do they reflect the reduction in risk as more (hopefully) recover and are no longer infectious? So peak infectivity would be say late April then reducing as it burned itself out?

The Govt stuffing your chart was always going to happen as there is a finite testing capability. And testing should rightly be prioritised towards the entirely untested NHS frontline(!) - there's even a petition to get that minor oversight corrected.

Incredible.

So, getting back to the chart - can you work backwards from the (likely always accurate) daily death toll, instead of daily tested? As we do have a ratio of dead to likely infected...?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 17:52

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:V2 - was thinking that the 'how dangerous to meet 1 or 25 people' tables are good for estimating growing risk, but do they reflect the reduction in risk as more (hopefully) recover and are no longer infectious? So peak infectivity would be say late April then reducing as it burned itself out?

The Govt stuffing your chart was always going to happen as there is a finite testing capability. And testing should rightly be prioritised towards the entirely untested NHS frontline(!) - there's even a petition to get that minor oversight corrected.

Incredible.

So, getting back to the chart - can you work backwards from the (likely always accurate) daily death toll, instead of daily tested? As we do have a ratio of dead to likely infected...?

I've seen it done ... need to locate where I saw that.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 18:08

I've seen it done ... need to locate where I saw that.

Would it be a simple matter of cranking up the CFR to reflect the hospital swamping, and backdate by the number of days from infection to death?

If you used daily death incidence, that would generate a percentage of currently infected population? Then adjust up or down if hotspot or backwater?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 18:12

You may call me Nostradamus. I thank you.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 18:17

Mitt Romney has supposedly just said:

â€œEvery American adult should immediately receive $1,000 to help ensure families and workers can meet their short-term obligations and increase spending in the economy.â€�

This is where we are going. Italy has said something similar. They are just going to print money and give it to people. Bye bye monetary system.