New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **clv101** » 16 Mar 2020, 06:48

I don't see how the virus can pass through the majority of people (say 45 million), in say, a year and everyone be able to access emergency care that could save them. Say just 10% need on average 1 week in hospital, spreading 4.5 million evenly over 52 weeks gives an average of nearly 90,000 hospitalisations at any one time. Peak could be more than double that. There are fewer than 150k beds in the NHS, and they are already occupied. If around 2% need full blown intensive care for two weeks, spreading 900k over 26 fortnights gives us an average of 35,000 intensive care patients at any one time, peak double that? UK has around 5000 ICU beds, and they are already occupied.

It is a certainty that this strategy leads to many many people not getting care that may have saved them.

The only way to avoid hundreds of thousands of extra deaths is to limit the spread of the virus to just a few tens or hundreds of thousands.

The 'strategy' of allowing ~everyone to contract virus is daft. It may now be unavoidable, but is wasn't unavoidable a few weeks ago. It looks like they are dressing up abject failure as strategy. It's not.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 06:59

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:So... this is what Fast Collapse looks like.

For me that means the cashpoints have to fail, although we could still end up with hyperinflation.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 07:00

Little John wrote:I support the principle of facilitating herd immunity. From a scientific standpoint, it is unarguable. Consequently, it is not really an issue worth debating since herd immunity is what we are going to get in any event at some point. The pertinent question is the means by which we get there. Either we get there in a hurry with a peak of infection involving 1.5 million or more needing intensive care at the same time. Or, we flatten the curve of infection out. Which will still mean 1.5 million or more needing intensive care. But, just not all at the same time. Those are the only choices available to us.

Flatten the curve my arse. The NHS will already be overwhelmed in two weeks time, so it makes no difference.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 16 Mar 2020, 07:07

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:I support the principle of facilitating herd immunity. From a scientific standpoint, it is unarguable. Consequently, it is not really an issue worth debating since herd immunity is what we are going to get in any event at some point. The pertinent question is the means by which we get there. Either we get there in a hurry with a peak of infection involving 1.5 million or more needing intensive care at the same time. Or, we flatten the curve of infection out. Which will still mean 1.5 million or more needing intensive care. But, just not all at the same time. Those are the only choices available to us.
Flatten the curve my arse. The NHS will already be overwhelmed in two weeks time, so it makes no difference.

As things stand that is entirely correct. Even if draconian measures had been taken early on, it may still have been correct. If draconian measures are taken right now, it it almost certainly too late to stop the NHS buckling.

However, it's still worth flattening the curve even if the NHS is overwhelmed. That is to say, if 200k people need intensive care at any one time and there are only 100k intensive care beds, then 100k people are not going to get intensive car and may die. But, if 1 million people need intensive care at any one time and there are only 100k intensive care beds, then 900,000 people are not going to get intensive care and may die.

Flattening the curve matters irrespective of any other consideration.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 16 Mar 2020, 07:21

clv101 wrote:I don't see how the virus can pass through the majority of people (say 45 million), in say, a year and everyone be able to access emergency care that could save them. Say just 10% need on average 1 week in hospital, spreading 4.5 million evenly over 52 weeks gives an average of nearly 90,000 hospitalisations at any one time. Peak could be more than double that. There are fewer than 150k beds in the NHS, and they are already occupied. If around 2% need full blown intensive care for two weeks, spreading 900k over 26 fortnights gives us an average of 35,000 intensive care patients at any one time, peak double that? UK has around 5000 ICU beds, and they are already occupied.

It is a certainty that this strategy leads to many many people not getting care that may have saved them.

The only way to avoid hundreds of thousands of extra deaths is to limit the spread of the virus to just a few tens or hundreds of thousands.

The 'strategy' of allowing ~everyone to contract virus is daft. It may now be unavoidable, but is wasn't unavoidable a few weeks ago. It looks like they are dressing up abject failure as strategy. It's not.

Maybe just maybe they DO have a plan.

HMG keeps talking about a peak in Summer .. which is clearly (to me) over optimistic.

I suspect that there WILL be a lock down .. but at the last possible moment.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 16 Mar 2020, 07:52

Little John wrote:I support the principle of facilitating herd immunity. From a scientific standpoint, it is unarguable. Consequently, it is not really an issue worth debating since herd immunity is what we are going to get in any event at some point. The pertinent question is the means by which we get there. Either we get there in a hurry with a peak of infection involving 1.5 million or more needing intensive care at the same time. Or, we flatten the curve of infection out. Which will still mean 1.5 million or more needing intensive care. But, just not all at the same time. Those are the only choices available to us.

Agree.

So do my Mum and Dad, who are self isolating as we speak.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:00

I am considering resigning my one day a week job at a special school because I don't need the money, the job is non teaching and my wife's health comes first.

The only question is do I resign this week or next?

I have spent the last 6 years in the daily struggle of getting my mental health kids to go to school. Which day do I tell them to stop going?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:25

PS_RalphW wrote:I am considering resigning my one day a week job at a special school because I don't need the money, the job is non teaching and my wife's health comes first.

The only question is do I resign this week or next?

I have spent the last 6 years in the daily struggle of getting my mental health kids to go to school. Which day do I tell them to stop going?

No time like the present. What's the benefit in delaying? Vs the drastic consequence of delay? On today's Chris Martenson there's a clip of an apparently competent WHO Doc where he points out the folly of trying to time countermeasures to perfection. Some good stuff in this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efaDuE-XEi4

Trust Vortex2's trend line, rising just the same even though we're not community testing. What was that risk for a group of 25? Resign today, pull the kids out today, and grab whatever nice clean pre-hard crash ATM cash you can NOW.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:47

While Johnson is clearly out of his depth, I wonder if the prevarication and delay isn't the bollocks it appears to be, but is a deliberate, graduated, nuanced comms policy? To buy time for a measured response among the populace. For example, we're done with shopping now, thanks. I warned a few folks with Wu Flu chitchat, the neighbours are a bit slower. And then the skiiers and cruise customers finally get it in two weeks time. Allowing the supermarkets to gear up as much as they can, rather than precipitate a sudden panic everywhere? What would you call it? Er...Flattening the Peak Demand sounds like a snappy title for that section of the Pandemic Plan?

If V2's trend line and danger time estimates from reliably estimated infected wandering around out there were published in the Daily Mail, that would be instant catastrophe, and do nobody any good. But it's serving we lucky prescient ones well.

Canary to watch for - a visible police presence at supermarket doors. Not just the occasional arrest of a shoplifter.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:48

PS_RalphW wrote:I am considering resigning my one day a week job at a special school because I don't need the money, the job is non teaching and my wife's health comes first.

The only question is do I resign this week or next?

I have spent the last 6 years in the daily struggle of getting my mental health kids to go to school. Which day do I tell them to stop going?

Today.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:51

I am carrying on with the working week as normal. I am meeting with a building contractor this morning to agree a monthly valuation and will be in Derbyshire tomorrow for another meeting. Therefore no consideration about self isolating at the moment. It will be interesting to see if things are progressing normally on site this morning. It's a Â£8M project and a couple of months off completion. The builder will be very very keen to get it finished and handed over to the client.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:51

Canary to watch for - a visible police presence at supermarket doors. Not just the occasional arrest of a shoplifter.

NB. This indicator is not available in Hartlepool. Monkeyhangers have no police to bother them.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 16 Mar 2020, 08:52

OK, so decided to visit the largest supermarket in Hastings (Tesco Extra) at 7.15 this morning, just after it opened. The place was stripped. No toilet rolls, no nappies, no beans, no tomatoes, freezer cabinets largely empty, no beer. They were missing too many of the things we want to stock up on, so I tried Sainsburys (second largest supermarket in Hastings). Much the same story. No eggs, no pasta, also missing more obscure things like coconut milk and thai curry paste. No fresh chickens either. A pallet of bogroll was being delivered as I arrived, and just dumped on the shop floor by the checkouts. By the time I had finished and started queing for a checkout, the pallet was empty.

From now on, it seems you go to the supermarket and you buy whatever they have for sale, not the things on your list.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 16 Mar 2020, 09:09

Ralph and others nearby -

Recommend Europol at Peterborough. Some things were low but they had everything yesterday. All packaging in Foreign. Either guess or look at the picture.

Unit A Ashwood House Enterprise Way, PE3 8YQ Peterborough

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 16 Mar 2020, 09:14

Well knock me down with a feather. My campsite booking software tells me someone just booked for July, there has been nothing for 2 weeks, I thought it was broken. Yes, remaining open, have protocols in place, in fact this is a good place to be for someone going full hermit.
In reality when the time comes I really don't expect anyone to turn up.