New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Mar 2020, 19:50

Vortex2 wrote:Oh poo ...

Vortex2 wrote:Doom in Italy ... coming to a UK & USA near you soon ...

Italy reports 3,590 new cases and 368 new deaths in one day - new cases are still increasing steeply.

Total is 24,747 cases and 1,809 dead.
Italy has a similar size population, and seems to be running about 10 days ahead of us according to my charts.

They are still bumping along the bottom edge of the graph, and yet are having major problems.

By 20th April they will have around 20 million infected ..ONE THOUSAND times as many cases as at present ... with maybe TWO MILLION dead.

I simply hope that I am misreading the numbers ... in which case I apologise.

Whatever my numeric errors, and whatever happens with the spread of the virus, the numbers are going to be BIG ... and we are two or three weeks behind.

We can only hope and pray that there is some mechanism which makes the spread burn out very very early in the process.

Perhaps their lock down will be amazingly effective?

Ours will be too .... oh, err, umm .. we don't have a lock down plan.

FURTHER THOUGHT : if the Italian lock down works very well then allowing for time delays they may see major fall once around 200k have been found as being infected. Sure, the results would be bad - but with 'only' say 15000 dead.

The actual numbers don't really matter now. The basic facts are that Italy is already well beyond the point where its health system can cope, and only a tiny fraction of the population is infected. Beyond that it's just different degrees of apocalypse.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:05

I'm venturing out to the local Tesco Extra when it opens at 6am tomorrow morning. May be the last time I'm going to feel reasonably safe doing so. I'm hoping the night shift will have restocked most things after this weekend's carnage. Probably not going to have to bother checking the sell-by dates.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:14

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:15

Dr Campbell - Sunday 15th, Curves and news

https://youtu.be/QIuzLf9f5WI

He thinks like HMG ... the peak will be in several weeks time.

Don't see it myself.

I assume that Powerswitchers are also more cautious - you seem to be locking down as we speak, and not in Summer.

also

Sunday 15th March, International aspects

https://youtu.be/GIMXekRVnHo

Suggests that high death rates might be due to use of paracetamol etc.

ReserveGrowthRulz · Post by **ReserveGrowthRulz** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:16

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Much rather be comorbid here than bankrupted as well by insane medical 'co-pay' bills where you are.

I've never coughed up more than $20 for co-pays? I assume you are taking the usual worst case example and pretending it applies to everyone? It doesn't.

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote: Whatever - good luck with that armed uprising! It was the obvious omission from the Contagion movie plot.

And...your thoughts on the "let's let the herd get sick and take it on the chin" plan of your government?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:18

UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June

4 weeks later than my exponential curve shows at the moment

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:38

My model suggests 1,936 HMG reported cases for tomorrow 16 March

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 15 Mar 2020, 20:39

And...your thoughts on the "let's let the herd get sick and take it on the chin" plan of your government?

Decimate (in the proper meaning of the word) your own voter base? Perhaps they haven't quite thought this one through. Seems the political class are a particularly endangered sub-group too. We're All In This Together, as they used to claim.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:13

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
And...your thoughts on the "let's let the herd get sick and take it on the chin" plan of your government?
Decimate (in the proper meaning of the word) your own voter base? Perhaps they haven't quite thought this one through. Seems the political class are a particularly endangered sub-group too. We're All In This Together, as they used to claim.

They took THREE years to sort out Brexit. Useless crowd.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:21

The FED in the US has cut interest rates to 0.25% and will pump billions of dollars into the US economy - sounds to me like they're shitting their pants big time.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:22

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote: I've never coughed up more than $20 for co-pays?

This sentence has no meaning in Europe.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:23

US gun stores are selling out of everything

https://youtu.be/Risbi82nr0k

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:24

boisdevie wrote:The FED in the US has cut interest rates to 0.25% and will pump billions of dollars into the US economy - sounds to me like they're shitting their pants big time.

Billions of dollars won't touch the sides of this. Even trillions won't stop the implosion. Half the companies in the US are about to go bankrupt, and it is no use them borrowing money at 0.25%, because they'll never be able to pay any of it back.

They are just going to have to give everybody money, right?

= end of the fiat dollar.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:33

Vortex2 wrote:US gun stores are selling out of everything

https://youtu.be/Risbi82nr0k

I'm having a hard time deciding what is the proper caliber to shoot a virus with.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Mar 2020, 21:42

vtsnowedin wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:US gun stores are selling out of everything

https://youtu.be/Risbi82nr0k
I'm having a hard time deciding what is the proper caliber to shoot a virus with.

.50 BMG sorts out most problems.