New coronavirus in/from China

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:56

Vortex2 wrote:
I calculated 8.3 x more

Please remind us how you arrived at that number?

Is there any way to extrapolate from declared deaths, sort of reverse engineering, as that's the only figure that is going to be meaningful as we've now reduced counting?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 10:13

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
I calculated 8.3 x more

Please remind us how you arrived at that number?

The US CFR at that time was 5% when they had NO testing.

The South Korean CFR at that time was 0.6% with extensive testing.

The ratio reflects the hidden cases, with a ratio of 8.33.

The Chinese rate is 6.something - I saw this in a medical report.

So a rate of 6 - 10 is likely .. although the precise value isn't really important.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 10:24

Testing saves lives ..

https://www.euractiv.com/section/health ... d-tactics/

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Mar 2020, 10:24

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote: Is that an official number or an informal calc like we've been doing?
total cases = 17,660
total deaths = 1,266
CFR therefore = 7.16%

This number is telling us what the CFR is going to be in any country if its health service can't cope.
You need to allow for the 10-day diiference between infection detected and death.

The dead were infected 10 days earlier, when numbers were smaller so the CFR will be higher.

jesus christ. That would put the CFR in the 20%+ range. Knock some off that to account for mild, undetected cases. It is still likely to be in the 5-15% mark for countries whose health services collapse

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 10:57

Been thinking further on whether the daily death rate could be used as a rough guide to how safe it is to interact.

For example, the plumber is due here on 22nd and 23rd to change several rusting / leaking radiators. Working from the Club meetings risk calculation, divided by 25, in a semi-rural location, gives a just about acceptable risk against the benefit of not having any more leaking rads. It might change if I hear of any cases in the immediate vicinity.

However, just a few weeks later and that calculation changes. What will change alongside the increasing risk, and eventually subside on the other side of the peak, is the daily death rate, and that national average number will increasingly apply as it's endemic throughout. So, linking daily deaths to risk of individual(s) being infectious might work as a rule of thumb?

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 14 Mar 2020, 11:29

My daughter who lives near Arundel has decided to take her 5 year old out of school because her 2 year old has asthma. It's getting closer and closer to home.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 14 Mar 2020, 12:30

I think it is now clear that much of the global economy is going to be shut down. Our existing financial/economic system was already in serious trouble before this virus turned up. It was basically broken in 2008, and has been held together since then with extremely low interest rates and printing electronic money. That isn't going to work this time.

The list of businesses and individuals now heading for bankruptcy is unimaginably huge. Airlines, football clubs, most businesses in the hospitality, leisure and entertainment sector and every other business which involves avoidable human-to-human contact.

What do you think is actually going to happen? Are western governments just going to issue unimaginably large amounts of fiat money to keep everything afloat? If so, can this lead anywhere but hyperinflation?

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 14 Mar 2020, 12:47

If you're thinking of self-isolating, I'm sure many people are, now would be a good time to buy some seed potatoes and other veg seeds and a good gardening book. Spend your weeks getting some fresh air, growing food and avoiding boredom. A battery powered radio to accompany you around the garden can be pleasant.

I'm off to B&Q tomorrow to buy some paint and decorating supplies for our holiday cottage. It needs a spruce up, and in the event that relatives need to "bug out" here a freshly painted surface is easier to keep clean.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 14 Mar 2020, 13:01

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think it is now clear that much of the global economy is going to be shut down. Our existing financial/economic system was already in serious trouble before this virus turned up. It was basically broken in 2008, and has been held together since then with extremely low interest rates and printing electronic money. That isn't going to work this time.

The list of businesses and individuals now heading for bankruptcy is unimaginably huge. Airlines, football clubs, most businesses in the hospitality, leisure and entertainment sector and every other business which involves avoidable human-to-human contact.

What do you think is actually going to happen? Are western governments just going to issue unimaginably large amounts of fiat money to keep everything afloat? If so, can this lead anywhere but hyperinflation?

Yes. Much pondering over this (from a 'victim' point of view) going on in this particular corner.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 14 Mar 2020, 13:31

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think it is now clear that much of the global economy is going to be shut down. Our existing financial/economic system was already in serious trouble before this virus turned up. It was basically broken in 2008, and has been held together since then with extremely low interest rates and printing electronic money. That isn't going to work this time.

The list of businesses and individuals now heading for bankruptcy is unimaginably huge. Airlines, football clubs, most businesses in the hospitality, leisure and entertainment sector and every other business which involves avoidable human-to-human contact.

What do you think is actually going to happen? Are western governments just going to issue unimaginably large amounts of fiat money to keep everything afloat? If so, can this lead anywhere but hyperinflation?

I'm a bit more optimistic. On this forum we are mainly white(i assume) more mature (40-60+) and male, except for Tess when she visits.

We range from complete doomer to optimistic prepper.

There are oodles of people who will just shrug a financial crises off. Young couples just starting out will just get on with life.

Do not underestimate the desire for life in people.

Now we are entering a new paradigm, there will be new ways of doing things, new ideas, new inventions, the job/activity/calling/profession that a baby born today will do.....has not even been thought of yet.

It's going to be great.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 13:37

Just been listening to Maajid Nawaz on LBC .. I'm not happy.

That guy has always liked the sound of his own voice, which is fine for an entertainment channel.

However today he was trying to defend the UK's coronavirus policy ... whilst "having no personal opinion".

He dumped a GP caller who was very nervous about the new 'policy' .. she pointed out that ICUs would be full within 2 weeks ... and he ignored her in favour of his own quasi-intellectual verbal gymnastics.

Disgraceful.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 13:39

stumuz1 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:I think it is now clear that much of the global economy is going to be shut down. Our existing financial/economic system was already in serious trouble before this virus turned up. It was basically broken in 2008, and has been held together since then with extremely low interest rates and printing electronic money. That isn't going to work this time.

The list of businesses and individuals now heading for bankruptcy is unimaginably huge. Airlines, football clubs, most businesses in the hospitality, leisure and entertainment sector and every other business which involves avoidable human-to-human contact.

What do you think is actually going to happen? Are western governments just going to issue unimaginably large amounts of fiat money to keep everything afloat? If so, can this lead anywhere but hyperinflation?
I'm a bit more optimistic. On this forum we are mainly white(i assume) more mature (40-60+) and male, except for Tess when she visits.

We range from complete doomer to optimistic prepper.

There are oodles of people who will just shrug a financial crises off. Young couples just starting out will just get on with life.

Do not underestimate the desire for life in people.

Now we are entering a new paradigm, there will be new ways of doing things, new ideas, new inventions, the job/activity/calling/profession that a baby born today will do.....has not even been thought of yet.

It's going to be great.

The transition will be a bit unpleasant 'tho.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 13:45

Vortex2 wrote:Testing saves lives ..

https://www.euractiv.com/section/health ... d-tactics/

UPDATE:

Wot? The UK is now giving up testing!!!

Testing is what enabled other countries to control the virus.

I suspect that, after this is all over the, CMO and colleagues plus the PM will be sitting as the accused in a mass murder trial.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 14:14

Dr Campbell - 14th March

Unadjusted CFR globally: 3.7%

He has revised his yesterday's limp acceptance of the UK 'policy' back to supporting the WHO lock-down model.

https://youtu.be/Etlyvt9n_QE

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 14:40

1140 UK cases 14th March - as advised today by HMG

I predicted 961 .... hmmm ..