New coronavirus in/from China

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:54

Daughter (learning difficulties) had a mini breakdown this evening after being taunted that her cold was covid19 by classmates on social media. I am really concerned that she will be the unwilling vector bringing the virus into our house, and my wife is at raised risk. If my wife gets it bad, daughter will be suicidal. I really hope schools are shut before Easter.

Snail · Post by **Snail** » 14 Mar 2020, 00:24

People can be cruel.

I'll be flabbergasted if schools aren't closed very soon.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Mar 2020, 00:33

Italy's CFR tops 7%

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 14 Mar 2020, 03:55

Snail wrote:People can be cruel.

I'll be flabbergasted if schools aren't closed very soon.

The government is stuck with the dilemma that if they close schools they will lose a lot of staff in the NHS, emergency services, care homes a nd civil service. So more people will die through lack of care. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 04:20

Little John wrote:Italy's CFR tops 7%

Is that an official number or an informal calc like we've been doing?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 07:12

Marina quotes Daniel Defoe's reports from Merrie England.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nic-buying

Having read an account by Samuel Pepys who one day chastised his good lady, put up some shelves, then attended a hanging drawing and quartering (reserved for errant nobility) with his chum, you'd hope that numbers attending public executions would have been properly controlled back then.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 14 Mar 2020, 07:53

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Little John wrote:Italy's CFR tops 7%
Is that an official number or an informal calc like we've been doing?

total cases = 17,660
total deaths = 1,266
CFR therefore = 7.16%

Source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

My guess is that the above deaths are part of the 10% or so of people infected who need ICU and who are not now, in Italy, receiving it.

This number is telling us what the CFR is going to be in any country if its health service can't cope.

It's going to be around 10%

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 08:22

Graun have finally let the commentariat rip. They do seem a bit cheesed off.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... gments#top

Incredible that the leaders of our National Religion moved first. Recall Bill Shankly once joked the footy was more important than life or death.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 08:40

Little John wrote:
It's going to be around 10%

In the shocking absence of any response, that would be 4-5 million Brits before the 'Herd Immunity' possibly works.

In other news, as Bolsonaro and his official were in sustained close contact with an obese 73 yo child, could we soon see the swearing in of President Pence to welcome the Rapture? We know the R0 is very high. And the CFR at that age is 8%. And the excellent Joe Rogan interview with Michael Osterholm confirmed obesity (and hypertension?) is a definite comorbidity. So consider the CFR as 80> = 14%.

And a further thought. Trump in denial and thinking of only and always himself, does the Mucus Trooper thing, and takes down half the cabinet with him. Then too late for the Section 25 intervention.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 08:54

Little John wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Little John wrote:Italy's CFR tops 7%
Is that an official number or an informal calc like we've been doing?
total cases = 17,660
total deaths = 1,266
CFR therefore = 7.16%

This number is telling us what the CFR is going to be in any country if its health service can't cope.

You need to allow for the 10-day diiference between infection detected and death.

The dead were infected 10 days earlier, when numbers were smaller so the CFR will be higher.

boisdevie · Post by **boisdevie** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:06

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Snail wrote:People can be cruel.

I'll be flabbergasted if schools aren't closed very soon.
The government is stuck with the dilemma that if they close schools they will lose a lot of staff in the NHS, emergency services, care homes a nd civil service. So more people will die through lack of care. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

They will also lose part of the 'just in time' logistics network that keeps our complicated system working.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:17

boisdevie wrote:
They will also lose part of the 'just in time' logistics network that keeps our complicated system working.

And the telephone sanitisers.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:30

The 7% in Italy is 7% of those tested. If the UK is anything to go by the real number of cases is at least 10 times higher. So the crude cfr without time lags and other errors is still probably 1% at the moment. That still equates to 10s of millions world wide, putting it in Spanish flu area. The final tally could well be higher.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:43

If the UK is anything to go by the real number of cases is at least 10 times higher.

China found 6 x more hidden cases than reported cases.

I calculated 8.3 x more

I heard the value of 8 quoted elsewhere in an interview.

And 10 x seems to be a general anecdotal value.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 14 Mar 2020, 09:49

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote: Is that an official number or an informal calc like we've been doing?
total cases = 17,660
total deaths = 1,266
CFR therefore = 7.16%

This number is telling us what the CFR is going to be in any country if its health service can't cope.
You need to allow for the 10-day diiference between infection detected and death.

The dead were infected 10 days earlier, when numbers were smaller so the CFR will be higher.

UPDATE : The median time to death is 18 days.