New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **clv101** » 13 Mar 2020, 19:40

vtsnowedin wrote:My wife has just cancelled the annual Rabies clinic next week. We are both coughing almost continuously. She called her doctor to see about a test. Doctor will not be in office for two weeks. Imagine that. secretary said to call state health department. Called the State health department and they said you have to see your doctor and get referred first. Look back at step two.
Looks like Knee surgery is now a no go and we are both staying home for at least another two weeks from today.

Sorry to hear this, really hoping you've only a nasty cold.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 13 Mar 2020, 19:42

Vortex2 wrote:
REVISED DATA

Corrected data, assuming 6 day HMG reporting delay, 8.3 scaling from reported -> unreported, close contact during the meeting and totally independent attendees.

The results for London could well be MUCH scarier whilst the results for a quiet rural area could be much milder.

First Weds (next week) : 95% chance of being OK
Second Weds : 72% chance of being OK
Third Weds : 4% chance of being OK

That last figure shows that a shopping run where you encounter 25 people in 2 weeks time might be VERY unwise.

>>> You should be in a hard lockdown in 10 -14 days at the latest! <<<

20 of 25 Attendees are Rather Concerned -

I've passed the numbers to two social groups, both approx that size. One is average age 70+ and it looks like they've decided to stop monthly meeting, and just need affirmation. The other is not quite as old membership, but still waiting for some kind of direction on weekly meets.

Quite why we are having any kind of hesitation about continued chitchat benefit vs deadly infection risk

is utterly utterly doing my head in. Chris Martenson absolutely nailed it this morning - psych 'adjustment reaction'...

Anyway V2 - thanks - your rapid numbercrunching may well have saved several lives.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 13 Mar 2020, 19:46

Yes good luck VT

My sister in law is a nurse who lives in the north of France who, foolishly or bravely, travelled to England a few days ago to see her 88 year old mother. She reports that social distancing was no problem on the Eurostar train from Lille to St Pancras as there appeared to be only 10 passengers or so! She is worried and conflicted as to wether she should have gone or not but Jean is getting more confused, really needed one of her daughters to come to her and it was her turn.

In all this one persons statistic is somebody else's potential personal tragedy. It is my wife's turn next and she is none to keen to travel to England just at the moment......

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 22:06

https://new.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/ ... right_now/

It is absolute hell being a teacher right now.....

As you can imagine the kids are bouncing off the walls and we're still expected to have them sat in silence studying plate tectonics or whatever. Half of them are licking light switches 'so we catch it and school shuts' and the other half are needing reassurance. No bugger is washing their hands and no extra site cleaning is taking place. Due to the time of year half of them have got colds which results in mass panic when Barry of 9G does a projectile sneeze and now we're fending off parents who are ringing up and emailing every five minutes because some knobber on Facebook has posted that their cousin's friend heard that Mr Bellend who teaches maths has been on a cruise to Peru with Tom Hanks. I have aged ten years in the past week. Edit: I forgot. OFSTED are still doing inspections.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 22:16

stumuz1 wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:One good thing to come out of all this is that the Buy-To-Let landlords might regret their life choices.
That was the idea in 2008.

You bailed the Buy-To-Let landlords, via tax payer bank bailouts.

They thank you very much.

BTW, i would love to see the BTLer's trashed, it should have happened 12 years ago.

That's how capitalism works.
US Fed to print 4.5 TRILLION DOLLARS IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!!

Chware teg as we say in ancient British.

Can anybody explain to me how printing electronic money can succeed where printing fiat notes has always ultimately failed?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 13 Mar 2020, 22:34

A RE-EVALUATION OF THE NHS OVERLOAD TIMETABLE

From the link mentioned earlier: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -hospitals

* 1-in-7 of the infected will need hospital support.

* 1-in-5 of those will need ICU support.

* So 1-in-35 of the infected will need an ICU bed.

* We have 4100 ICU or critical care beds available - at best this number could be tripled in emergency to reach say 12000.

So at best the NHS ICU beds can support 35*12000 infected patients at any one time i.e. 420000.

Using the HMG case count data - which in fact is delayed by a few days - this NHS limit will be reached, according to my calculations, in about 23 days time.

No doubt this estimate is very rough - but with the power of the exponential curve it won't be far out.

This means that we are about two to three weeks behind Italy, as many have surmised.

Ten days after reaching saturation, the NHS will have 16 x as many ICU patients ... with no bed to go to. That's 200,000 sick people dying in corridors or at home ... with many 1000s more to follow in the following days.

We need to observe Italy as they blow past their limits to see what happens to death rates ..

I certainly hope that this is all a bad dream .... it's almost inconceivable that all this will happen in the next month or two.

I still can't understand the HMG claim that we have several weeks before any peak ... perhaps I have missed something ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 22:48

Anyone watching Newsnight?

Shit just hit fan.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 13 Mar 2020, 22:53

UndercoverElephant wrote:Anyone watching Newsnight?

Shit just hit fan.

Don't have TV ... please do tell!

UPDATE: ... pacing up and down here ... spill the beans ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:03

Vortex2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Anyone watching Newsnight?

Shit just hit fan.
Don't have TV ... please do tell!

UPDATE: ... pacing up and down here ... spill the beans ...

The UK shuts down next weekend.

And America has an NHS.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:04

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Anyone watching Newsnight?

Shit just hit fan.
Don't have TV ... please do tell!

UPDATE: ... pacing up and down here ... spill the beans ...
America has an NHS.

And the UK shuts down next week.

wot???

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:07

Vortex2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: Don't have TV ... please do tell!

UPDATE: ... pacing up and down here ... spill the beans ...
America has an NHS.

And the UK shuts down next week.
wot???

UK parliament to pass laws next week banning mass gatherings - everything basically. US has declared national emergency and the federal government is going to deploy the private health system...somehow.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:12

UK parliament to pass laws next week banning mass gatherings - everything basically.

Just football matches ... or other stuff too?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:35

Vortex2 wrote:
UK parliament to pass laws next week banning mass gatherings - everything basically.
Just football matches ... or other stuff too?

Most stuff.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:38

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:My wife has just cancelled the annual Rabies clinic next week. We are both coughing almost continuously. She called her doctor to see about a test. Doctor will not be in office for two weeks. Imagine that. secretary said to call state health department. Called the State health department and they said you have to see your doctor and get referred first. Look back at step two.
Looks like Knee surgery is now a no go and we are both staying home for at least another two weeks from today.
Sorry to hear this, really hoping you've only a nasty cold.

Her main concern is the high number of senor citizens in our small town. About 300 out of a total of 1150. She does not want to have even one of these bring their doggy in for this new tag only to get a cold as bad as this or worse. Today the senior center announced they were suspending sit down senior meals at the church and would provide those needed door to door in disposable containers. next town over cancelled their Rabies clinic as well. National emergency now declared and local governments are looking at what they can do and get it done.

Post by **clv101** » 13 Mar 2020, 23:40

UndercoverElephant wrote:Anyone watching Newsnight?

Shit just hit fan.

Events, dear boy, events. Johnson's (and Trump) lost control, playing catch up, the country is shutting down around him. Now forced to bring government policy inline with reality.

The Eton/Oxbridge/PPE bufoons thought they could wing it, control it. But they can't, reality's come to slap them down.