From today (tomorrow's report) we can expect the numbers to be in lockstep with hospital admissions, until that limited capacity is reached. Meanwhile, the community spread and mild cases won't be recorded. So the true figure will increasingly diverge, even more so in the absence of effective containment measures, and soon be unknowable.
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
I predict 909 for tomorrow's HMG report ( 14th March)
R*R = 0.99
Note: Different curve fitters yield slightly different results ... but we still essentially have an exponential growth tightly matched to the data. My current curve was disturbed by a couple of dodgy values a few days ago but is now locking into the current trend better, although it may read a tad too low for the next couple of days.
We are still looking at 42 or 43 days for 100% infection, as reported by HMG.
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:From today (tomorrow's report) we can expect the numbers to be in lockstep with hospital admissions, until that limited capacity is reached. Meanwhile, the community spread and mild cases won't be recorded. So the true figure will increasingly diverge, even more so in the absence of effective containment measures, and soon be unknowable.
Note: Different curve fitters yield slightly different results ... but we still essentially have an exponential growth tightly matched to the data. My current curve was disturbed by a couple of dodgy values a few days ago but is now locking into the current trend better, although it may read a tad too low for the next couple of days.
We are still looking at 42 or 43 days for 100% infection, as reported by HMG.
UPDATE : My other regression calculator gives 961 for tomorrow. If that works out closer I will switch to that algorithm.
Bedrock Barney wrote:
Snap! I think we are now down £50,000 for the year ahead. Bizarrely, we are quite pleased as we had too much work in any case.
As long as it stops there......
I think that this mess will prompt a career change .. if my wife & I survive ...
I am already embarking on Plan B. Not as if there's a choice. Online courses, great things.
Same here : Today I set up a new computer rack at home : now have three notebooks and one AI PC and various other computers here. This evening I am bringing my main email server home from the office. Not so sure about scanners and printers ... they are quite bulky. I will be developing a high tech software/hardware product in the idle hours of isolation.
Vortex2 wrote:
I think that this mess will prompt a career change .. if my wife & I survive ...
I am already embarking on Plan B. Not as if there's a choice. Online courses, great things.
Same here : Today I set up a new computer rack at home : now have three notebooks and one AI PC and various other computers here. This evening I am bringing my main email server home from the office. Not so sure about scanners and printers ... they are quite bulky. I will be developing a high tech software/hardware product in the idle hours of isolation.
Yes, this whole thing will forcibly persuade you, I, and plenty of others to make substantial life changes, and hopefully society in general too. I do think though that there is a very high probability that those with lots of cash are going to make a real killing out of all this. Effing vultures will be eyeing up potential future bargains right now. Rubbing their greedy grubby little hands as the majority struggle.
"Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". Douglas Bader.
eatyourveg wrote:
I am already embarking on Plan B. Not as if there's a choice. Online courses, great things.
Same here : Today I set up a new computer rack at home : now have three notebooks and one AI PC and various other computers here. This evening I am bringing my main email server home from the office. Not so sure about scanners and printers ... they are quite bulky. I will be developing a high tech software/hardware product in the idle hours of isolation.
Yes, this whole thing will forcibly persuade you, I, and plenty of others to make substantial life changes, and hopefully society in general too. I do think though that there is a very high probability that those with lots of cash are going to make a real killing out of all this. Effing vultures will be eyeing up potential future bargains right now. Rubbing their greedy grubby little hands as the majority struggle.
If/when I survive this I will be tempted to go into the (new) politics that will emerge. One task will be to expose the carpet baggers.
eatyourveg wrote:
Ha ha peanuts, I'm in for more like £40k but still smiling, in a maniacal lost it sort of way.
Snap! I think we are now down £50,000 for the year ahead. Bizarrely, we are quite pleased as we had too much work in any case.
As long as it stops there......
I think that this mess will prompt a career change .. if my wife & I survive ...
We'd like to survive as well. We had a relatively solid retirement plan which involved working like mad for another 4 years. This might now stretch out a bit......
We demand that reality be altered because we don't like it [� oilslick ]
Bedrock Barney wrote:
Snap! I think we are now down £50,000 for the year ahead. Bizarrely, we are quite pleased as we had too much work in any case.
As long as it stops there......
I think that this mess will prompt a career change .. if my wife & I survive ...
We'd like to survive as well. We had a relatively solid retirement plan which involved working like mad for another 4 years. This might now stretch out a bit......
Even if the bug disappears quite soon with few casualties, the world will not be the same again.
Globalization will be a dirty word - unless it can be rebuilt with product second sources and increased buffer stocks.
Automation may get a boost - machines can't get sick.
Politics will change - respect for the top 1% will be reduced.