New coronavirus in/from China

[Vortex2]

They say 10-20x more cases than positive tests. Or 5-10,000 cases.

So according to my model that means a 3 day lag : infection => reported case.

Seems a bit short to me.

[leroy]

What does collapse of NHS mean? Running out of gloves, aprons and masks? Hand gel and soap? That would be bad news but other countries don't seem to have. I wonder what the national stocks of PPE are like? I'm sure that doctors and nurses will show up if not unwell.. this is doing my head in waiting for the storm to hit.

In all seriousness if the stress of all this is really getting to you, it might be a good idea to take a step back and stop looking at the news or listening to the radio or even following this thread for a while. I realise this is much easier said than done and some of us on here don't have much of a choice other than to be involved.

I'm OK thanks CE, just not looking forward to watching all those people die and doing many, many last offices in the coming weeks. I don't like them at the best of times.

[Vortex2]

The measures are too weak

What measures? Not sure I heard any ... just Boris wiffle-waffle.

[clv101]

There is *some* logic to delaying mass lockdown. Locking down, closing schools etc, a month ago when on a dozen cases would have been too early.

Science says peak is 10-14 weeks away, with 90% infected +/- 9 weeks either side.

They don't believe they can sustain a lockdown for more then a few weeks - so want to wait until closer to peak. - otherwise peak comes after lockdown has broken down resulting in peak being higher - increasing death rate.

[Vortex2]

What does collapse of NHS mean? Running out of gloves, aprons and masks? Hand gel and soap? That would be bad news but other countries don't seem to have. I wonder what the national stocks of PPE are like? I'm sure that doctors and nurses will show up if not unwell.. this is doing my head in waiting for the storm to hit.

In all seriousness if the stress of all this is really getting to you, it might be a good idea to take a step back and stop looking at the news or listening to the radio or even following this thread for a while. I realise this is much easier said than done and some of us on here don't have much of a choice other than to be involved.

I'm OK thanks CE, just not looking forward to watching all those people die and doing many, many last offices in the coming weeks. I don't like them at the best of times.

Coming weeks? Nah, we have months according to the experts.

[stumuz1]

There is *some* logic to delaying mass lockdown. Locking down, closing schools etc, a month ago when on a dozen cases would have been too early.

Science says peak is 10-14 weeks away, with 90% infected +/- 9 weeks either side.

They don't believe they can sustain a lockdown for more then a few weeks - so want to wait until closer to peak. - otherwise peak comes after lockdown has broken down resulting in peak being higher - increasing death rate.

Agree.

You can lock people down for 14 days, after that forget it.

[Vortex2]

There is *some* logic to delaying mass lockdown. Locking down, closing schools etc, a month ago when on a dozen cases would have been too early.

Science says peak is 10-14 weeks away, with 90% infected +/- 9 weeks either side.

They don't believe they can sustain a lockdown for more then a few weeks - so want to wait until closer to peak. - otherwise peak comes after lockdown has broken down resulting in peak being higher - increasing death rate.

Hmm ... my model suggests 6 weeks at the latest.

So we are 15 days or so behind Italy ... then add 6 weeks ..... so imagine Italy in around 4 weeks time .... that could be us ....

Using the HMG data ... imagine Italy in 10 weeks time ....

However you cut the cake I can't imagine the current 'measures' will push the asteroid impact out to 10-14 weeks away.

[Vortex2]

There is *some* logic to delaying mass lockdown. Locking down, closing schools etc, a month ago when on a dozen cases would have been too early.

Science says peak is 10-14 weeks away, with 90% infected +/- 9 weeks either side.

They don't believe they can sustain a lockdown for more then a few weeks - so want to wait until closer to peak. - otherwise peak comes after lockdown has broken down resulting in peak being higher - increasing death rate.

Agree.

You can lock people down for 14 days, after that forget it.

.. so why are other countries locking down like mad?

Do they imagine that people will give up after 14 days?

[Potemkin Villager]

What does collapse of NHS mean? Running out of gloves, aprons and masks? Hand gel and soap? That would be bad news but other countries don't seem to have. I wonder what the national stocks of PPE are like? I'm sure that doctors and nurses will show up if not unwell.. this is doing my head in waiting for the storm to hit.

In all seriousness if the stress of all this is really getting to you, it might be a good idea to take a step back and stop looking at the news or listening to the radio or even following this thread for a while. I realise this is much easier said than done and some of us on here don't have much of a choice other than to be involved.

Agree 100% c_e

[Lord Beria3]

My private subscription forecasting on the virus suggests that the uk death rate will start to rocket next week to over 100 deaths by end of March.

5 to 8k will be infected.

And it will exponentially explode higher in April.

[Lord Beria3]

I'm self isolating from next week.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

They say 10-20x more cases than positive tests. Or 5-10,000 cases.

At least we are working this stuff out for ourselves ahead of time, though. Who knows - that might have already saved some, with the earlier - apparently reasonable - hesitation about when it was best to lock down or scrub meetings / events. iIt keeps us ahead of the pack and independent of belated govt advice.

This afternoon, I spent an hour or so cleaning my empty glass cider bottle collection, usually used for homebrew, and have now established my initial potable water supply, adding the drop of thin bleach per Adam2's recommendation. It's covering a low(?) probability / high impact event. Would feel really silly not having covered that fundamental, when it's essentially free. I'll add more to that over the week, in between transferring demijohn wine to bottles and thawed and processed fruit.

Got two demi's of sickly sweet undrinkable pear wine from last year, friend's tree. Gonna try LJ's freezing method to maybe turn it into a rather spiffing liqueur - if Mrs Mustard agrees. She's the vintner. I'm the bottle washer. I know my place.

[Little John]

They say 10-20x more cases than positive tests. Or 5-10,000 cases.

At least we are working this stuff out for ourselves ahead of time, though. Who knows - that might have already saved some, with the earlier - apparently reasonable - hesitation about when it was best to lock down or scrub meetings / events. iIt keeps us ahead of the pack and independent of belated govt advice.

This afternoon, I spent an hour or so cleaning my empty glass cider bottle collection, usually used for homebrew, and have now established my initial potable water supply, adding the drop of thin bleach per Adam2's recommendation. It's covering a low(?) probability / high impact event. Would feel really silly not having covered that fundamental, when it's essentially free. I'll add more to that over the week, in between transferring demijohn wine to bottles and thawed and processed fruit.

Got two demi's of sickly sweet undrinkable pear wine from last year, friend's tree. Gonna try LJ's freezing method to maybe turn it into a rather spiffing liqueur - if Mrs Mustard agrees. She's the vintner. I'm the bottle washer. I know my place.

In particular, pear and apple wine taste like nothing you have ever tasted before if you freeze fractionate them. Really...they taste unbelievably good.

If the initial wine is in the 12-14% ABV region, go for a 50% volume melt out. The resulting liqueur will be around 24-28% ABV. This has the added bonus of rendering it very stable and impervious to spoilage in the same way sherry is.

I make what is colloquially called "apple jack" all the time from supermarket apple juice.

5 litres of apple juice from Aldi = £2.70
1 teaspoon of wine yeast = 10p
1 teaspoon of yeast nutrient = 10p
couple of camden tablets = 10p
.65 kg of sugar = 45p

once fermented, put into a couple of 2 litre PET bottles and follow the instructions I posted earlier aiming to melt out 50% of each

Makes, after wastage, easily 2 litres of 25% ABV apple jack. Not too shabby for about £3.50

[Vortex2]

Italy deaths : correction: 1016

[Vortex2]

They say 10-20x more cases than positive tests. Or 5-10,000 cases.

At least we are working this stuff out for ourselves ahead of time, though. Who knows - that might have already saved some, with the earlier - apparently reasonable - hesitation about when it was best to lock down or scrub meetings / events. iIt keeps us ahead of the pack and independent of belated govt advice.

This afternoon, I spent an hour or so cleaning my empty glass cider bottle collection, usually used for homebrew, and have now established my initial potable water supply, adding the drop of thin bleach per Adam2's recommendation. It's covering a low(?) probability / high impact event. Would feel really silly not having covered that fundamental, when it's essentially free. I'll add more to that over the week, in between transferring demijohn wine to bottles and thawed and processed fruit.

Got two demi's of sickly sweet undrinkable pear wine from last year, friend's tree. Gonna try LJ's freezing method to maybe turn it into a rather spiffing liqueur - if Mrs Mustard agrees. She's the vintner. I'm the bottle washer. I know my place.

I'm more doing techie things ... I'm building a rack to hold some of my computers, so I can work from home without trailing wires everywhere.