New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 15:47

Little John wrote:By the end of April, there are going to be 7 million people requiring intensive care beds.

.. so in reality by tomorrow teatime the hospitals will be overloaded ....

January 2020 : Critical Care Beds

There were 4,123 adult critical care beds open and 3,423 occupied, giving an occupancy rate of 83.0%.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Mar 2020, 15:52

Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:By the end of April, there are going to be 7 million people requiring intensive care beds.
.. so in reality by tomorrow teatime the hospitals will be overloaded ....

January 2020 : Critical Care Beds

There were 4,123 adult critical care beds open and 3,423 occupied, giving an occupancy rate of 83.0%.

we haven't got long to wait, that's for sure

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:04

I have a nephew who has been nicknamed 'the petri dish' because whenever there is a visit from or to we generally end up with some kind of sniffle. Just heard that his Tiger mother has arranged for him to be baby sat by the ancient Grandparents on Saturday evening. The Grandparents don't want to do this for the obvious reason but feel browbeaten by petri dishes Tiger mother.
FFS what is wrong with some people!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:09

FTSE now close to 10% drop in one day. This is by far the most dramatic stock market collapse since the war. Previous one-day record was 12.2% in 1987, but this drop comes after several days of large falls.

And still the UK government holds out. This is also like Black Wednesday (1992) though: they will cave eventually, because the onslaught of bad news is just going to keep coming.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:11

PSA : High temperatures don't necessarily mean fever ... I have found that my temperature fluctuates wildly whilst my wife is rock solid stable.

It turns out that some minor damage in my brain stem has messed up my internal thermo regulation.

Apparently quite common - but could cause a spell in isolation if you get checked whilst around and about!

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:17

Little John wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Little John wrote:By the end of April, there are going to be 7 million people requiring intensive care beds.
.. so in reality by tomorrow teatime the hospitals will be overloaded ....

January 2020 : Critical Care Beds

There were 4,123 adult critical care beds open and 3,423 occupied, giving an occupancy rate of 83.0%.
we haven't got long to wait, that's for sure

I can't quite believe it, but we approach the bed availability limit in about 2 weeks.

Finding a further 70k beds would give us another 2 weeks.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:23

Can't keep up with this. Shut-downs now announced in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, and looks like Justin Trudeau has got it. Wife caught it in the UK.

Europe is going into lockdown. What is going to happen in America?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:29

Is a bank failure / lockup possible?

With all this economic mess, is there any chance that the banks will grind to a halt?

If so, should i get some cash out?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:31

Italian deaths now 1492 ! (via Facebook .. can't find confirmation yet)

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:Can't keep up with this. Shut-downs now announced in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, and looks like Justin Trudeau has got it. Wife caught it in the UK.

Europe is going into lockdown. What is going to happen in America?

Health care - even testing - is expensive in the US.

Most /many will simply get ill huddled in a dark corner.

The American Dream

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:39

So...statement imminent from Boris, and he is going to stick to his guns. The blowback response is going to be brutal. He will cave before next week.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:45

HMG reported case count
(Their data possibly delayed by a few days)

590 positive today. (My model yesterday suggested 551)

My updated model suggests 692 for tomorrow.

Note: Whatever model you use, it would seem that total mayhem will reign in 20 - 30 days time.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:50

Vortex2 wrote:Is a bank failure / lockup possible?

Very, especially an extended bank holiday.

Vortex2 wrote:
With all this economic mess, is there any chance that the banks will grind to a halt?

Barclays is now down to 98p. It is basically valued at just over one years profit. At 99p in 2008, the gov' was forced to bail out the banks at eye watering amounts to the public. Do we think the Gov' will bail out again? I don't think they have the fiscal headspace.

Vortex2 wrote:If so, should i get some cash out?

Yes.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:51

Not that it really matters, but whilst I calculated an 8.3 ratio between reported & true cases, the Chinese data now suggests that they had a 6.2 ratio or so IIRC.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 12 Mar 2020, 16:55

UndercoverElephant wrote:So...statement imminent from Boris, and he is going to stick to his guns. The blowback response is going to be brutal. He will cave before next week.

I don't think it's got anything to do with caving. More to do with the optimum time to do the 14 day anthropological window which the populace will obey.

You can pass as many emergency laws you like, if joe public gets fed up with them, they will not be obeyed.