New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

Hello all. Aeons since I last posted on powerswitch although I do call in from time to time to keep up to date.

I work in the construction industry and it's all looking very wobbly out there. Contracts being postponed, contractors getting jittery. I forecast lots of pain going forward. We'll be ok (small husband and wife consultancy with no employees and no debt) but many won't.

Most pertinent question - do i go to London tomorrow for a meeting (using the tube)? I think I know the answer to this

Welcome back.
I would postpone or cancel the London meeting. Unless very important, in which case cycle, walk, or take a taxi. None of which eliminate the risk, but seem much lower risk than the crowded and ill ventilated underground.

[fuzzy]

I am at work this Friday and Sunday night - and 56. We are quite rural although we meet city folks at work in passing. Even the old school scum who run the UK will have to do something soon, next week, so not too risky this week. London will be a real hot zone though.

Maybe take CJ Peters 'Virus Hunters' for some light reading.

[raspberry-blower]

Can't you do a conference call thingy or does it have to be a face to face meeting? I am presuming the answer will be the latter.

Interesting to hear what you are saying about the construction industry. Are any of the wobbling companies large corporations? I can think of a couple of companies that may not ride this one out.

[Little John]

My youngest son is working on contract right now in the centre of London

He has to work

[Little John]

just found a good site for data

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14

[vtsnowedin]

if you want to be certain of not getting infected. I would say no. Out of interest, how old are you?

Slightly the wrong side of 50! Fit and healthy. I'm almost thinking it's better to get it over and done with. Of course, I would regret that if I was at death's door in 2 weeks time....

We have precisely the same dilemma. I sympathize.

I am 56, I work in the care sector with very vulnerable people with mental handicaps. This is further compounded by the fact that my specific client group are all elderly with huge numbers of comorbidities and they require personal hygiene services daily. I cannot wear the kind of protective clothing that would provide adequate protection due to their incapacity to understand and the extreme distress such measures would cause them.

But, I have to work.

My word John, you are in a pickle. May you have the best of luck going forward.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

do i go to London tomorrow for a meeting (using the tube)? I think I know the answer to this

Adding up all the Official London numbers as of yesterday, declared this morning = 100 exactly

So, with the time lag from infected to becoming Official Statistic, call that 1000

And another 1000 for those symptomatic community spreaders but not qualifying for testing, eg no travel history - told to self isolate (guessing here, are there stats?)

And their family members who share the same house, but aren't quarantined

And a 25% increase for the time of your meeting.

And another 10% by the time of the return journey - At that point, about 4400 Londoners to avoid, and any surface they've touched over the past 9 days that's not been cleaned.

How pointless is your meeting, and what do you stand to gain from it vs the risks? I certainly wouldn't venture out to buy a lottery ticket now.

[UndercoverElephant]

Football matches to be played behind closed doors in Scotland: https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5 ... -death-uk/

The UK government is going to cave very soon.

[Vortex2]

The UK government is going to cave very soon.

The 'statement' was ready yesterday evening .. but I bet they are toughening it up as we speak!

[mikepepler]

Most pertinent question - do i go to London tomorrow for a meeting (using the tube)? I think I know the answer to this

I've stopped going to London for work now, but over the past few weeks I tried cycling instead of Tube, and it was actually safer than cycling in the rural town I live in, as the traffic is so slow. I registered to use the TFL bikes, put the app on my phone, and cleaned the handlebars with gel before using the bikes. All worked pretty well.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

just found a good site for data

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14

That's the (inevitably outsourced) trusted partner provider of HM. Govt numbers. About as reliable as unemployment stats, ie, a vaguely useful starting point.

Are there current / cumulative numbers for hospital admissions / discharges, or symptomatic unconfirmed individuals told to self-isolate? Knowing both of those numbers, their locations, and the ratio between them might be fairly handy.

And more precise geography than County level might be good too. Constituency would be particularly good, as these are broadly weighted to population. 650 seats, 67m people, so about 100k each.

There is an easy way that could be done - an online Parliamentary petition. Only signed if clearly been symptomatic, but not hospitalised. That'll automatically register the unseen cases, and very easily analysed by constituency.

[Initiation]

As of 9am 12 March 2020, a total of 29,764 people have been tested:

29,174 negative
590 positive

[Vortex2]

As of 9am 12 March 2020, a total of 29,764 people have been tested:

29,174 negative
590 positive

590 positive : My model yesterday suggested 551 for today.

Still a good exponential fit with R*R = 0.99

(These daily figures wander around a bit 'tho)

[UndercoverElephant]

There is talk now about closures of air space and the entire aviation industry being threatened not only with bankruptcy but a permanent reduction in air travel. "The end of corporate air travel".

[raspberry-blower]

Interesting article at Wolf Street - one of the regular commentators lives in Italy.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/11/i-liv ... -lockdown/