New coronavirus in/from China

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 09 Mar 2020, 20:53

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:My turn for dodgy stats.

Today's Top of the Hotspots! Remember the time lag may be x 8.2 for probable current cases out on the mean streets, blissfully unaware.

Edit... I thought Torbay was in Devon... Double counted, or double trouble?

Hertfordshire 13
Devon 12
Brighton and Hove 8
Hampshire 8
Kensington and Chelsea 8
Torbay 7
Surrey 6
Barnet 5
Cumbria 5
Ealing 5
Essex 5
Leeds 5
Liverpool 5
Manchester 5
Nottinghamshire 5
Oxfordshire 5
Southwark 5

Don't you discriminate against Wales! We have 6!!

Imperialist.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:03

Hospital bed overload will occur at ...

There are around 100k general and acute beds in the NHS as of today.

Assume say 70% can be made available, we have 70k beds ready for coronavirus.

Assume 18% of the infected require a bed, we reach overload at 388k infected.

This hospital overload will occur roughly in 18 - 25 days time according to my unadjusted data.

(In reality we need to adjust +/- a few days to also allow for slow reporting by HMG, and for delays caused by incubation. We also need to allow for extra beds being magically created in GP surgeries etc as we speak)

Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...

Post by **clv101** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:09

Vortex2 wrote: Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...

No? I always thought one of main advantages following all this 'collapse' stuff, was that when it happens it'll eaiser to get your head around.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:21

Vortex2 wrote:
Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...

At least one of two things is going to happen. The first is a total lockdown, and the second is the NHS being completed overwhelmed. I can see no timeline from here where neither of those things happen, and it is looking increasingly likely that both will.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:32

clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...
No? I always thought one of main advantages following all this 'collapse' stuff, was that when it happens it'll eaiser to get your head around.

Oh, we're totally ready for it ... but it feels a bit like being in a film or something.

(I was diagnosed with something nasty some years ago - that was the same ... I felt like I was observing other people in a film ..)

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:38

As there is a real risk of this happening, we will all know someone who is infected and someone who maybe will need respiratory help.

Taking as an axiom that the NHS will be full, is there a DIY remedy, medicine, relieve that we can make, acquire, use to help respiratory difficulty?

Mrs Stumuz has had a steamer when she has had a cold or flu in the past. It just needs hot water and breathe in the steam.

Any other remedies come to mind?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:40

clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...
No? I always thought one of main advantages following all this 'collapse' stuff, was that when it happens it'll eaiser to get your head around.

I am struggling to understand what is going on though. I was tending towards the view that the UK government wants to let the virus run, because it knows it can't stop it. But China has stopped it (for now at least, if you believed their stats), and Italy is now heading towards a proper lockdown. The thing is...if you are going to use lockdowns to try to stop this virus, then you have to do it quickly and comprehensively. There is absolutely no point in doing it half-heartedly. So WTF is the UK government doing? The longer it delays bringing in proper containment/delay measures, the bigger the outbreak will be when they try to stop it.

My gut instinct now is telling me the whole country will be locked down within two weeks.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:45

stumuz1 wrote:As there is a real risk of this happening, we will all know someone who is infected and someone who maybe will need respiratory help.

Taking as an axiom that the NHS will be full, is there a DIY remedy, medicine, relieve that we can make, acquire, use to help respiratory difficulty?

Mrs Stumuz has had a steamer when she has had a cold or flu in the part. It just needs hot water and breathe in the steam.

Any other remedies come to mind?

Vicks vapour rub. I think that was on the recommendation of Dr Campbell.

Also Vit D tab daily.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:48

Italy has announced whole country lock down tonight. However, this is European Liberal lock down, where we ask people nicely to stay in their homes, unless they really really must travel 200 miles to visit their granny.

Post by **mikepepler** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:50

Egypt under some level of lockdown as well now:

Egypt has placed a nationwide suspension on â€œany large gatherings of citizens, or those that involve the movement of citizens between governorates,â€� its prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, has announced.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 21:54

stumuz1 wrote:As there is a real risk of this happening, we will all know someone who is infected and someone who maybe will need respiratory help.

Taking as an axiom that the NHS will be full, is there a DIY remedy, medicine, relieve that we can make, acquire, use to help respiratory difficulty?

Mrs Stumuz has had a steamer when she has had a cold or flu in the past. It just needs hot water and breathe in the steam.

Any other remedies come to mind?

My key factors:

Not sure about steamers ... check carefully on that before using!

* Vitamin D daily ... 25ug ... NOT more.

* Thermometer to detect fever, and to determine when you start taking meds. (I have bought an expensive non-contact thermometer to make checking simpler, and also to allow checking of visitors)

* Meds to be paracetamol & ibuprofen interleaved, above a trigger temperature.

* O2 sensor used on finger : to detect poor blood O2 levels, so 999 can be called.

* I would buy an O2 enricher ... but I can't afford one.

* Know EXACTLY where to drive a dying family member to if the wotsit hits the fan. You don't want to rush to a closed hospital! (Have a 'hospital bag' ready to go. Also ensure you all write wills)

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 22:02

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: Note: I still can't get my head around this actually being likely to happen ...
No? I always thought one of main advantages following all this 'collapse' stuff, was that when it happens it'll eaiser to get your head around.
I am struggling to understand what is going on though. I was tending towards the view that the UK government wants to let the virus run, because it knows it can't stop it. But China has stopped it (for now at least, if you believed their stats), and Italy is now heading towards a proper lockdown. The thing is...if you are going to use lockdowns to try to stop this virus, then you have to do it quickly and comprehensively. There is absolutely no point in doing it half-heartedly. So WTF is the UK government doing? The longer it delays bringing in proper containment/delay measures, the bigger the outbreak will be when they try to stop it.

My gut instinct now is telling me the whole country will be locked down within two weeks.

My data suggests that two weeks will be almost too late. By that time around 1 million will have been infected.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 22:09

We need to note that ...
this scenario is being played out in countries from Iceland to Madagascar ... we simply aren't hearing about it.

Initiation · Post by **Initiation** » 09 Mar 2020, 23:03

Vortex2 wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:As there is a real risk of this happening, we will all know someone who is infected and someone who maybe will need respiratory help.

Taking as an axiom that the NHS will be full, is there a DIY remedy, medicine, relieve that we can make, acquire, use to help respiratory difficulty?

Mrs Stumuz has had a steamer when she has had a cold or flu in the past. It just needs hot water and breathe in the steam.

Any other remedies come to mind?
My key factors:

Not sure about steamers ... check carefully on that before using!

* Vitamin D daily ... 25ug ... NOT more.

* Thermometer to detect fever, and to determine when you start taking meds. (I have bought an expensive non-contact thermometer to make checking simpler, and also to allow checking of visitors)

* Meds to be paracetamol & ibuprofen interleaved, above a trigger temperature.

* O2 sensor used on finger : to detect poor blood O2 levels, so 999 can be called.

* I would buy an O2 enricher ... but I can't afford one.

* Know EXACTLY where to drive a dying family member to if the wotsit hits the fan. You don't want to rush to a closed hospital! (Have a 'hospital bag' ready to go. Also ensure you all write wills)

I previously read some medical articles about caffeine having a similar effect on opening up the lungs to more common drugs such as theophylline. If you search online you can find various articles. Now whether that would help in the event of pneumonia not sure. I presume the best way to take it would be via combined paracetamol and caffeine tablets.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Mar 2020, 23:58

So...anybody want to offer a prediction about what is actually going to happen over the next 6 months?

It feels like a slow-motion car crash.