New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

This gets to the root cause of why a pandemic in Western countries will be so much worse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOzfRRN ... ture=share

Hmmm .. I think that we can do without that sort of video.

why?

I am not religious myself, as I suspect the author is. But, I share his view on the spiritual emptiness in the West and how it will be our undoing

[mikepepler]

Some comments the CMO, Chris Whitty:

Ministers will within a fortnight advise anyone with a fever or a mild respiratory tract infection to stay at home for seven days, Whitty revealed. He said the government was not issuing this advice at present, because the chances of someone with a fever now having coronavirus are very low, he said. But he said that would change very quickly. Soon the number of infections would rise “really quite fast�, he said.

Whitty said from tomorrow the government would start screening everyone arriving at hospital with a respiratory illness. Until now people were screened only if they were in intensive care and had coronavirus-type symptoms, he said.

The second point makes me wonder if we'll see a surge in confirmed cases soon.

On a related point, if there are now 5 dead, and the CFR really is 1%, as we're often told, then there's plenty of unidentified cases out there. But I think we'd be lucky if it really was only 500 cases in fact!

[PS_RalphW]

5 is far too small a number to draw such a conclusion. However, the conclusion is almost certainly correct

[mikepepler]

5 is far too small a number to draw such a conclusion. However, the conclusion is almost certainly correct

Yeah, just speculating at the moment.

Interestingly, when Italy had 6 deaths, it had 229 confirmed cases - so not huge difference from here. They went from 6 deaths to over 100 in 9 days. I wonder how long it will be here?

[Vortex2]

then there's plenty of unidentified cases out there.

I'm assuming (#total cases / #confirmed cases)= 8.3

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

then there's plenty of unidentified cases out there.

I'm assuming (#total cases / #confirmed cases)= 8.3

So you're not fully confident to go two decimal places, eh...

[Vortex2]

I've found a better solver which gives an improved R*R of 0.99

This version gives the slightly bigger figure for total cases for the next few days as reported by HMG as follows:

Reported on the 10th onwards:
353
475
638
858

[Vortex2]

then there's plenty of unidentified cases out there.

I'm assuming (#total cases / #confirmed cases)= 8.3

So you're not fully confident to go two decimal places, eh...

The data is too wobbly for that!

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

My turn for dodgy stats.

Today's Top of the Hotspots! Remember the time lag may be x 8.2 for probable current cases out on the mean streets, blissfully unaware.

Edit... I thought Torbay was in Devon... Double counted, or double trouble?

Hertfordshire 13
Devon 12
Brighton and Hove 8
Hampshire 8
Kensington and Chelsea 8
Torbay 7
Surrey 6
Barnet 5
Cumbria 5
Ealing 5
Essex 5
Leeds 5
Liverpool 5
Manchester 5
Nottinghamshire 5
Oxfordshire 5
Southwark 5

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

I've found a better solver which gives an improved R*R of 0.99

This version gives the slightly bigger figure for total cases for the next few days as reported by HMG as follows:

Reported on the 10th onwards:
353
475
638
858

Just for 'fun'... How does that look by 31 March?

[Vortex2]

I've found a better solver which gives an improved R*R of 0.99

This version gives the slightly bigger figure for total cases for the next few days as reported by HMG as follows:

Reported on the 10th onwards:
353
475
638
858

Just for 'fun'... How does that look by 31 March?

About 100k.


HMG reported, days from today:
1 353 10th March .....
2 475
3 638
4 858
5 1,153
6 1,549
7 2,082
8 2,799
9 3,762
10 5,057
11 6,797
12 9,136
13 12,280
14 16,506
15 22,186
16 29,821
17 40,084
18 53,877
19 72,418
20 97,339
21 130,835
22 175,859
23 236,376
24 317,720
25 427,055
26 574,015
27 771,548
28 1,037,057
29 1,393,934
30 1,873,622
31 2,518,382
32 3,385,020
33 4,549,891
34 6,115,622
35 8,220,160
36 11,048,923
37 14,851,134
38 19,961,781
39 26,831,129
40 36,064,392
41 48,475,051
42 65,156,529



Real count of infected, including missed cases

10% by 26 days from now. Adjust for 7+ days of incubation time.
Allows another say 3 days for HMG reporting delays.
That makes the 10% mark at 16 days from now.
To be on the safe side make that say 10 days from now before lock-down to avoid contact with the virus.

So be under cover by 19th March


1 2,931 ... 10th March ...
2 3,940
3 5,295
4 7,118
5 9,567
6 12,859
7 17,284
8 23,232
9 31,227
10 41,973
11 56,417
12 75,831
13 101,926
14 137,002
15 184,147
16 247,517
17 332,694
18 447,182
19 601,068
20 807,911
21 1,085,933
22 1,459,630
23 1,961,925
24 2,637,072
25 3,544,555
26 4,764,325
27 6,403,848
28 8,607,573
29 11,569,654
30 15,551,062
31 20,902,571
32 28,095,669
33 37,764,091
34 50,759,660
35 68,227,329

[clv101]

Things happening fast now. Israel putting anyone entering country into 2 weeks quarantine, Madrid closed all schools/university for two weeks.

[Vortex2]

Things happening fast now. Israel putting anyone entering country into 2 weeks quarantine, Madrid closed all schools/university for two weeks.

Maybe my 19th March lock-down date is a bit too far out ..... (:

[clv101]

Lockdown extended too all of Italy. Two Oxford university students positive... Surely we are only days away from similar.

[Little John]

Well, on the 1st of March, there were 36 cases in the UK. As of today, the official number is 319. That's an increase of around 50% per day from the 1st to today (the 9th). Projecting forwards on that basis give an infection total, by the 31st of March, of:

2,386,703

At that rate, in the absence of quarantining, 3/4 of the population would be infected by April the 7th.

See table and chart of known numbers below: