New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Mar 2020, 21:15

Rumour circulating that the government are going to ask Sky and BT to show Premier League games without subscription when the games are being played behind closed doors. Some games may even be shown on the BBC.

Bread and circuses....

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 21:26

To keep the plebs (or is it proles?) cross-contaminating within the Public Houses? Genius if true, but I can hear the vested interests squealing already.

Still, if Iran can ban Friday Prayers, then, When Saturday Comes...

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Mar 2020, 21:58

3rd UK death, similar profile to first two.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 22:08

Just a reminder ... the asteroid is getting nearer

The 100k reported mark will be in about 20 days. People will start getting twitchy.

The 1M reported mark will be in about 28 days. Definitely after this time the public will be rather upset.

This chart shows the number of ALL cases ... reported+unreported .. over the next month or so.

https://i.ibb.co/pjMLrX5/All-reported-u ... 3-2020.png

I would reckon the 10% reported+unreported mark is when you should get off the streets to avoid infection and lock-down.

This is around 27 days from today 8 March.

However we need to allow for people being infectious before symptoms show - which will be about 7 days earlier.

This makes lock-down day around 28th March.

In fact allow say 3 days delay in the reported data ... which makes lock-down day at 25th March or earlier.

(Ideally we should be a few days earlier to allow for errors in the data, local variations etc .. so we have just under two weeks to finish preparing)

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 22:12

Talking of asteroids ...

If we ever have a major asteroid approach, say 3 months out, and unavoidable I would drown myself in drink.

Waiting for a nasty event just a few weeks away is bad enough.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 22:47

Anyone have an accurate figure of how many hospital beds with oxygen will be available when the main wave arrives?

We can use this data to work out when the NHS falls over.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Mar 2020, 23:27

Intensive care is around 2000 I think, maybe stretch a bit by cancelling non-emercency surgery and using some operating theatres. If you're just talking about a bed with O2 supply, I'd expect 10s of thousands.

But remember, the vast majority these beds and the medical staff are already fully occupied!

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Mar 2020, 07:31

VTSnowedin - hope you're feeling better?

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/ ... ton-county

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 07:35

Economic slump beating the asteroid arrival

The 30% overnight oil price reduction, trade fairs cancellations, sporting event cutbacks, flight numberers being slashed, share price drops ... the economy is falling apart faster than we are!

Small firms and families will start going bankrupt soon, the financial courts will be unable to cope - or may be closed, bigger firms supplying small firms will be stressed, pension monthly payouts will drop, insolvency practitioners and bailiff firms will be overworked, closed or blocked during the emergency. Tax returns will plummet.

One-man bands might survive if lucky .. but small firms with a handful or employees might be killed by having to pay Statutory Sick Pay for several weeks, without any business coming in.

When all this is over we will have an economy where all the 'living dead' firms have been winnowed out ... even if useful to the economy.

The rich will be richer, the poor will be bust.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 09 Mar 2020, 07:39

Markets fall sharply and oil price collapses as Saudi Arabia and Russia fall out. This is getting politically dangerous. SA is going to become very unstable as the money dries up.

China increasingly looks to have the virus under control, and looks to come out of this with even more authoritarian and digital control over the population

So far, spread to Africa and the southern hemisphere is slight, apart from air conditioned Australia, so maybe the virus will slow in summer.

Europe And US not looking good

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 09 Mar 2020, 07:40

PS_RalphW wrote:Markets fall sharply and oil price collapses as Saudi Arabia and Russia fall out. This is getting politically dangerous. SA is going to become very unstable as the money dries up.

China increasingly looks to have the virus under control, and looks to come out of this with even more authoritarian and digital control over the population

So far, spread to Africa and the southern hemisphere is slight, apart from air conditioned Australia, so maybe the virus will slow in summer.

Europe And US not looking good

What wlll this do to the poor souls in Venezuela?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 09 Mar 2020, 07:51

Vortex2 wrote: What wlll this do to the poor souls in Venezuela?

Make them flee in even larger numbers to Colombia and Brazil?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Mar 2020, 09:57

FTSE down 8.5% on open, has recovered slightly since then. Dow Jones futures 5% down.

eatyourveg · Post by **eatyourveg** » 09 Mar 2020, 10:05

My financial future down too, by 100%

Post by **mikepepler** » 09 Mar 2020, 10:52

UndercoverElephant wrote:FTSE down 8.5% on open, has recovered slightly since then. Dow Jones futures 5% down.

Apparently 5% drop is the limit on the futures, so it could be more.