New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **clv101** » 07 Mar 2020, 22:57

Vortex2 wrote:
This is doing my head in.
The massive pulse of cases which will appear in roughly 30 days time is doing my head in ... I simply can't imagine what to expect.

Indeed, there simply isn't any spare capacity (especially the required specialist doctors) to treat hundreds of additional intensive care patients. Cancelling all non-emergency, helps a bit but not much.

Post by **clv101** » 07 Mar 2020, 23:01

I've been asking everyone I meet over the last week, just casually, "so what to you make of the coronavirus thing". Pretty much everyone has been unconcerned or thinks it's media hype, need a new 'fear' now we can't scaremonger about Brexit anymore etc. A lot of folk are in for a rude awakening in the coming fortnight.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 07 Mar 2020, 23:07

clv101 wrote:I've been asking everyone I meet over the last week, just casually, "so what to you make of the coronavirus thing". Pretty much everyone has been unconcerned or thinks it's media hype, need a new 'fear' now we can't scaremonger about Brexit anymore etc. A lot of folk are in for a rude awakening in the coming fortnight.

A family member has gone from "Hah ha" to "Aw heck" ... she is married to a senior govt guy who received a briefing a couple of days ago ...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Mar 2020, 23:54

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51787238

Italy is set to lock down at least 10 million people in the region of Lombardy and 11 provinces in the north and the east of the country.

The mandatory quarantine will last until early April.

The dramatic escalation in the country's efforts to contain the new deadly coronavirus will close gyms, pools, museums and ski resorts.

Italy is Europe's worst hit-country and reported a steep rise in virus infections on Saturday.

The new measures could take effect as early as Sunday and will last until 3 April.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Mar 2020, 23:58

So to summarize:

1) The CFR (case fatality rate) in Wuhan is 3.4%. In Italy it's 4.25%. So, we can reasonably assume it is going to be at least 3.4% here.

2) All of the stochastic models I have seen predict a 70% or thereabouts infection rate overall in the UK.

3) The current rate of increase of infection in the UK, based on the data for the last 7 days is an increase of approximately 25% per day. Given the number of people known to be infected currently stands at around 200, this means that, in the absence of Wuhan style quarantining, 55 million will be infected by early May. It's called the exponential growth curve and most people do not understand it.

4) Given that 70% of 70 million (the current thereabouts population of the UK) is around 49 million, 3.4% of 49 million is around a million and a half.

By mid May, at least half of the country will be sick and hundreds of thousands will be dead and dying. Possibly over a million. Though, most of the dead and dying will be over 60 since 80% of the reported Covid deaths, thus far, are in the over 60s. This means that the 3.4% CFR rate is misleading since it is based on an average across a whole population. In reality, it is likely to be quite a bit lower for the under 50s and significantly higher for the over 60s.

In terms of how the NHS is going to cope with the above - it wont.

By the end of the summer, 3/4 of this country will have been infected. No matter what preparations are made, the NHS will collapse under the strain.

If anyone wants to contest those numbers, feel free. I will be more than happy to be wrong

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 08 Mar 2020, 00:08

Little John wrote:So to summarize:

1) The CFR (case fatality rate) in Wuhan is 3.4%. In Italy it's 4.25%. So, we can reasonably assume it is going to be at least 3.4% here.

2) All of the stochastic models I have seen predict a 70% or thereabouts infection rate overall in the UK.

3) The current rate of increase of infection in the UK, based on the data for the last 7 days is an increase of approximately 25% per day. Given the number of people known to be infected currently stands at around 200, this means that, in the absence of Wuhan style quarantining, 55 million will be infected by early May. It's called the exponential growth curve and most people do not understand it.

4) Given that 70% of 70 million (the current thereabouts population of the UK) is around 49 million, 3.4% of 49 million is around a million and a half.

By mid May, at least half of the country will be sick and hundreds of thousands will be dead and dying. Possibly over a million. Though, most of the dead and dying will be over 60 since 80% of the reported Covid deaths, thus far, are in the over 60s. This means that the 3.4% CFR rate is misleading since it is based on an average across a whole population. In reality, it is likely to be quite a bit lower for the under 50s and significantly higher for the over 60s.

In terms of how the NHS is going to cope with the above - it wont.

By the end of the summer, 3/4 of this country will have been infected. No matter what preparations are made, the NHS will collapse under the strain.

If anyone wants to contest those numbers, feel free. I will be more than happy to be wrong

Sadly I think you have it about right.
And also truth be known there is nothing any government can do that would change the final outcome.
keep calm and carry on.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Mar 2020, 05:57

I only work 1 day a week, at a school. I could lose that job without long term impact on my finances, if schools are not shut down first anyway. My elder daughter has offered to stay away from home to avoid infecting us. My younger daughter is a recluse and will happily stay home once schools are shut. My main problem with lock down is getting my wife to accept it.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 06:27

My main problem with lock down is getting my wife to accept it.

Quote LJ's summary.

leroy · Post by **leroy** » 08 Mar 2020, 06:35

What would you do if you were a NHS clinical worker? I nurse in a ward with significant numbers of isolation rooms which could be used for infected patients (currently for those who are immunosuppressed) and have my 70+ yo mother at home who is paralysed and prone to illness. Would you stop going into work?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:03

Have you been issued with full PPE?

leroy · Post by **leroy** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:11

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Have you been issued with full PPE?

I've been on annual leave for a week but haven't heard anything about that. Do you mean full headgear and everything? We often wear gloves, aprons and surgical masks for barrier patients.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:28

leroy wrote:What would you do if you were a NHS clinical worker? I nurse in a ward with significant numbers of isolation rooms which could be used for infected patients (currently for those who are immunosuppressed) and have my 70+ yo mother at home who is paralysed and prone to illness. Would you stop going into work?

My wife is an NHS worker. I am a care worker.

We are going to work.

If I take seriously ill she will care for me above all other concerns. I will do the same.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:30

Little John wrote:So to summarize:

1) The CFR (case fatality rate) in Wuhan is 3.4%. In Italy it's 4.25%. So, we can reasonably assume it is going to be at least 3.4% here.

2) All of the stochastic models I have seen predict a 70% or thereabouts infection rate overall in the UK.

3) The current rate of increase of infection in the UK, based on the data for the last 7 days is an increase of approximately 25% per day. Given the number of people known to be infected currently stands at around 200, this means that, in the absence of Wuhan style quarantining, 55 million will be infected by early May. It's called the exponential growth curve and most people do not understand it.

4) Given that 70% of 70 million (the current thereabouts population of the UK) is around 49 million, 3.4% of 49 million is around a million and a half.

By mid May, at least half of the country will be sick and hundreds of thousands will be dead and dying. Possibly over a million. Though, most of the dead and dying will be over 60 since 80% of the reported Covid deaths, thus far, are in the over 60s. This means that the 3.4% CFR rate is misleading since it is based on an average across a whole population. In reality, it is likely to be quite a bit lower for the under 50s and significantly higher for the over 60s.

In terms of how the NHS is going to cope with the above - it wont.

By the end of the summer, 3/4 of this country will have been infected. No matter what preparations are made, the NHS will collapse under the strain.

If anyone wants to contest those numbers, feel free. I will be more than happy to be wrong

Even with a CFR of 0.6% (the Korean figure) and an infection rate of 30% (the lowest figure I have seen) ... life won't be rosy.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:39

Chris Martenson reaching the same conclusions as we have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 08 Mar 2020, 07:40

The Elephant In The Room

OK, so for several weeks we will have the police ill and overworked, only 50000 soldiers nowadays, most older senior people ill, dying or hiding and the NHS collapsing under the load.

We also have no stuff from China arriving.

The factories in China and the UK will still be closed or running at limited capacity.

Most air and other travel will be effectively dead.

Now consider that most schools, colleges and universities will be closed ... and that most young people will NOT be ill.

Based on the UK's recent history I suspect that we will see organised gangs of youngsters looting shops, shopping centres and homes whilst they have the chance.

(It was very serious last time .. but severely unreported. The news mentioned a few looting incidents but many towns were affected, with no reporting taking place, Also gangs were looting house after house in the richer parts of London, again going unreported)

This will be the icing on the cake.

The world will look a different place when the smoke clears ... and the biggest long term loser will be China.

ALSO: ... and of course if you had hoped to pop out to a supermarket to top up with food during the main surge, maybe you will simply find a looted mess ..