New coronavirus in/from China

[UndercoverElephant]

OK, today's 15 minute video from John Campbell really hits the nail on the head:

https://new.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... ust_awful/

The virus is now known to be at its most infectious 3-5 days after initial infection, at a point where they may be no symptoms at all. It is fully airborne. It cannot be contained, and we've almost reached the point when this is admitted.

The numbers are scary. Of the identified cases, the overwhelming majority are still ill.

Total recorded cases ever: 76,787
Current cases: 55,839
Severe: 11, 663
Critical: 2000
Deaths: 2248
Recovered: 18,864

How many of the 55,839 who are still ill are going to eventually recover? It seems that some people shake the disease off in 2-3 weeks, but many don't. And we simply do not yet know what happens to those who don't.

All the authorities can do in response is try to slow it down and pray that somebody comes up with a vaccine. But that is going to take years, isn't it?

The potential economic consequences of this are truly mind-boggling.

[UndercoverElephant]

True - but we are looking at say December at the latest for a peak.

I don't think we have any idea when it will peak. Nothing like enough information.

[clv101]

Just taken delivery of a new chest freezer.

Don't have much faith in the morgue service?

[Vortex2]

True - but we are looking at say December at the latest for a peak.

I don't think we have any idea when it will peak. Nothing like enough information.

Using a 5% daily growth model rather than the more aggressive 10% mentioned in an earlier post, December is the data when there is nobody left to infect.

Otherwise August is the data when we run out of people to infect.

Anyway, whatever model you use it seems that the peak is reached during the coming few months.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Just taken delivery of a new chest freezer.

Don't have much faith in the morgue service?

At least that's a vote of confidence for continuous electricity supply.

[UndercoverElephant]

True - but we are looking at say December at the latest for a peak.

I don't think we have any idea when it will peak. Nothing like enough information.

Using a 5% daily growth model rather than the more aggressive 10% mentioned in an earlier post, December is the data when there is nobody left to infect.

Otherwise August is the data when we run out of people to infect.

Anyway, whatever model you use it seems that the peak is reached during the coming few months.

What if attempts to suppress it are quite successful, but ultimately fail? It is possible to slow down the spread without killing it off, which means it would take much longer to run out of people to infect.

[Vortex2]

I don't think we have any idea when it will peak. Nothing like enough information.

Using a 5% daily growth model rather than the more aggressive 10% mentioned in an earlier post, December is the data when there is nobody left to infect.

Otherwise August is the data when we run out of people to infect.

Anyway, whatever model you use it seems that the peak is reached during the coming few months.

What if attempts to suppress it are quite successful, but ultimately fail? It is possible to slow down the spread without killing it off, which means it would take much longer to run out of people to infect.

Firstly, I can now confirm that the 10% daily increase is almost bang on according to recent data I have seen, which means that we run out of human fuel in August.

Secondly, I'm sure that drugs etc could slow progress to push that date out. This means that vaccines or novel therapies may arrive just in time. At the minimum, slowing the pace will reduce the loading on ICU beds.

To be frank, I hope I wake up in a minute ... this nightmare isn't funny any more.

[Vortex2]

Dr John Campbell

This UK doctor is one of the best reporters of the situation. His latest video is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0xEbNh8x8U

OOPS ... just seen that he has been cited a bit earlier ...

He estimates a horrific CFR of 0.2 - 0.4 which ties in with the Imperial College model .... and even if you don't die your health may be shot..

Rule One - don't get ill and don't let anyone you know or love get ill.

His very last comment is the scary one.

(His videos over the last few days are also excellent)

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Looks like a jolly fine time for that Mr Branson, owner of an airline and train company, to launch a cruise line.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... in-voyages

And won't someone also please spare a thought for Mr Trump, owner of hotels, golf courses, resorts, and conference centres.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

There's a graph geek analyst guy- Babycat - doing very good work over here. Well worth following if you like to be informed and concerned at the same time.

https://www.avianflutalk.com/exponentia ... age16.html

Also the daily youtubes from Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity, mainly for news snippets and overall summaries.

Vortex2, Agree Doc Campbell does good down to earth reports.

I've noticed the Guardian don't do live blog reports over the weekend. And while numbers double every week, now in several countries, it's actually dropping down the news agenda. That might be because it's not a proper pandemic yet.

[adam2]

Just taken delivery of a new chest freezer.

Don't have much faith in the morgue service?

At least that's a vote of confidence for continuous electricity supply.

Unwise, IMHO, to count on a continuous electricity supply. In the SHORT term, electricity should be available, but as the weeks go past the risks of failures and breakdowns increases.
Imported fuel and spares may not be available. Staff shortages seem likely.
Local vigilantes may block roads in an attempt to keep the infection out (as has already happened overseas) This might prevent power station workers from getting to work, or hamper deliveries, or prevent repairs to the distribution network.
Mainland Europe may suffer similar problems and therefore cease exports of electricity to the UK.
We are reliant on imported gas for much of our electricity, will these imports still be available ?

My additional preps are largely WRT utility failure.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... ultClick=1

Asymptomatic woman infected 5 people who went on to develop COVID-19 pneumonia. The woman, in her 20's, initially tested negative, but a later retest returned positive. She never displayed any symptoms and all CT scans were normal. Incubation period for patient one is recorded as 19 days.

This is an academic report, which we must presume to be accurate. If so, there is absolutely no way this virus is ever going to be contained. It is also very hard to see how anybody can avoid catching it unless they completely isolate themselves from the rest of civilisation.

It also means that a hell of a lot of people who currently think they're clear - in Brighton, for example - are incubating the virus and will eventually develop disease, or will spread it liberally and may never even know they had it.

I can see no justification for the WHO not declaring a pandemic.

[Vortex2]

There's a graph geek analyst guy- Babycat - doing very good work over here. Well worth following if you like to be informed and concerned at the same time.

https://www.avianflutalk.com/exponentia ... age16.html

I'm now getting quite confused.

The CFR is being quoted as anything from 3% to 40%

We have heard very little about what state the 'serious' but recovered cases are in.

The infectivity is clearly very high, as seen in that Korean church.

Currently I am assuming:

* Most of us will be exposed to the virus sometime this year.

* 60% will become infected.

* Of those about 18% will be seriously ill, requiring a stay in hospital.

* Of the seriously ill, X% will have long-term health issues and Y% will die.

* Few of the afflicted will be under, say, 35.

* Public health measures won't affect the overall outcome ... but could help pace the spread so that ICUs etc aren't swamped.

* A delay in the spread also allows time for novel medications to be tried and maybe a vaccine to be developed.

* The whole affair will cause economic mayhem and may also cause firms to find non-Chinese second sources for products.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

I can see no justification for the WHO not declaring a pandemic.

While the WHO should only take a strict clinical view, and therefore should have declared it, what good would that actually do? The good solid reason that I can see is to delay panic buying and stripped supermarket shelves.

It would happen here fast - police presence at supermarkets was in the Op Yellowhammer Hard Brexit planning, after all. Remember the 2011 Nike Trainer and Flatscreen riots..?

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

The CFR is being quoted as anything from 3% to 40%

I read that as the Case FR (admitted for treatment) being 40%, esp if no hospital equipment is available. The Infected FR (whole population) could be 1-3%. Same territory as Spanish Flu. But the risks to individuals will depend on their age and comorbidity, and may be much very higher still, eg a diabetic 70 year old male smoker with hypertension.