New coronavirus in/from China

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Feb 2020, 14:11

Vortex2 wrote:
The population fatality rate seem to be around 1% and yet the confirmed case fatality rate is much higher at around 30%.

Need to get my head around this ..

Most people are mild infections, or not recorded. Actual hospital cases are severe. So the official CFR can be crazy high, but diluted by the others.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Feb 2020, 14:17

adam2 wrote: It will not become hugely newsworthy until a so called celebrity catches it.

All my favourite slebs are ageing rock stars, most already with one foot in the grave. Only Keef is immortal.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 21 Feb 2020, 14:24

South Korea - Guardian quote -

As of Friday more than 400 members of the church were showing symptoms of the disease, Reuters reports, though tests were still ongoing, Daegu mayor, Kwon Young-jin, said at a briefing.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 16:39

The population fatality rate seem to be around 1% and yet the confirmed case fatality rate is much higher at around 30%.

Further thoughts - if this data is correct:

* You have a small chance of being infected

* If infected you have a 30% of death

So .. you need to DEFINITELY avoid being infected otherwise you have a significant chance of dying.

This also suggests that families should NOT live together as one member being unlucky to become infected will act as a death sentence for one third of the family, as cross infection will be impossible to avoid.

The Big Question : will one third of all those infected on those cruise ships die?

If not, why not?

FWIW The paper mentioned above also clashes with this :

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/heal ... index.html

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Feb 2020, 17:47

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51591091

Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says

Just declare the pandemic already.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Feb 2020, 18:13

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1230 ... 82176?s=21

UPDATE: All 6 of the new coronavirus cases in Italy are in serious condition - ANSA

....and that is game over. The only explanation is that there is no known connection back to previous cases, and these people were only diagnosed when they started to get quite ill. Give it three weeks and there will be cases all over Italy.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Feb 2020, 19:42

Top story on BBC website is the WHO's "narrowing window" comment. Looks like this is going mainstream next week.

Now is the time to "rush to completion" any remaining preparations as NOAA say in their hurricane warnings.

Hmm, and tomorrow we have ~30 visitors coming!

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 19:48

Community Disease Containment Toolbox

Useful set of docs.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/practice/comm ... nt-toolbox

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 19:51

reddit

Main reddit sub:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/

Usual reddit quality but with a few good posts.

A decent technical sub:

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/

Also a twitter like live feed:

https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/

Mega lists of related reddit subs:

https://www.reddit.com/search?q=coronav ... =sr%2Cuser

https://www.reddit.com/search?q=covid&type=sr%2Cuser

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 20:05

CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19
February 21, 2020

A call-in for journalists only.

A recording is here:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020 ... id-19.html

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 20:21

Oh, poo!

Poo can be a transmission vector .. just stay at home!

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id ... 662660e89d

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 20:28

A model of virus peak timing in the UK

According to this (non peer reviewed) model, an infection peak in the UK would take around 4 months from kick-off.

Results:
We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days. Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78 days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the total attack rate.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Feb 2020, 21:03

Vortex2 wrote:A model of virus peak timing in the UK

According to this (non peer reviewed) model, an infection peak in the UK would take around 4 months from kick-off.

Results:
We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days. Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78 days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the total attack rate.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Useless (my bold). There will be controls.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 21 Feb 2020, 21:04

clv101 wrote:Top story on BBC website is the WHO's "narrowing window" comment. Looks like this is going mainstream next week.

Now is the time to "rush to completion" any remaining preparations as NOAA say in their hurricane warnings.

Just taken delivery of a new chest freezer.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 21 Feb 2020, 21:15

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:A model of virus peak timing in the UK

According to this (non peer reviewed) model, an infection peak in the UK would take around 4 months from kick-off.

Results:
We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days. Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78 days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the total attack rate.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
Useless (my bold). There will be controls.

True - but we are looking at say December at the latest for a peak.