New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

I know, but to those who "don't do numbers" one percent sounds a lot less scary than half a million.

A death rate of 1.22083% would sound even less, since many of those who don't understand numbers think that percentages with lots of numbers after the decimal point represent smaller amounts.
(That is why dodgy money lenders charge interest rates like 38.7094%, since some people think that must be a low rate)

[Little John]

A lot of people cant "do numbers" and are reassured by statements that only "one in a hundred" will die.
An alternative statement that "half a million could die" might sound MUCH worse.

still one in a hundred

... and 11 in 100 severely ill with possible long-term after-effects ... assuming that they can get medical treatment ...

So maybe every family will have one or two members who become severely ill.

Maybe so. But, restating 1 in a 100 dead as half a million at the national level does not change the nature of the number.

[clv101]

Worrying development from Iran. First they say two cases, then hours later they announce those two have died!

That they are dead means they must have been infected / contagious for the last couple of weeks, and if there have been two COVID19 deaths, probably well over 100 cases.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/202 ... s-now.html

What’s good for containment has been lousy for business. With classes canceled at a coding-and-robotics school in Hangzhou, employees will lose 30% to 50% of their wages. The Lionsgate Entertainment World theme park in Zhuhai is closed, and workers have been told to use up their paid vacation time and get ready for unpaid leave. “A week of unpaid leave is very painful,� said Jason Lam, 32, who was furloughed from his job as a chef in a high-end restaurant in Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui neighborhood. “I don’t have enough income to cover my spending this month.�

Across China, companies are telling workers that there’s no money for them -- or that they shouldn’t have to pay full salaries to quarantined employees who don’t come to work.

[UndercoverElephant]

Just been announced that Iranian city Qom, population 1.2 million, closes all schools and universities from tomorrow.

[adam2]

Just been announced that Iranian city Qom, population 1.2 million, closes all schools and universities from tomorrow.

The oil price has increased significantly over the last few days, though it remains at below pre plague levels.
Initially, the markets seemed to only consider reduced oil demand caused by transport shutdowns and reduced industrial activity.
It seems that the markets are now also considering that coronavirus infections could reduce oil supply.

[Vortex2]

The coronavirus is maybe at around 3% - possibly higher in you include cases where medical treatment wasn't available.

However the death-rate can be understated if you use deaths/infected cases.

The number of infected at the time the dead people were infected might have been a lot lower ... maybe 24 days in the past.

This will distort the figures if exponential infection growth is happening.

3% of today's infected could be 10% of the infected count 24 days ago.

See the following for a less amateur explanation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/novel_coronavi ... lity_rate/

[Vortex2]

Panic over - China has sorted it all out.

TBH I was a bit worried for a moment ... now what shall I do with all that protective kit I bought?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/autho ... 542i6.html

[clv101]

The coronavirus is maybe at around 3% - possibly higher in you include cases where medical treatment wasn't available.

However the death-rate can be understated if you use deaths/infected cases.

The number of infected at the time the dead people were infected might have been a lot lower ... maybe 24 days in the past.

This will distort the figures if exponential infection growth is happening.

3% of today's infected could be 10% of the infected count 24 days ago.

See the following for a less amateur explanation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/novel_coronavi ... lity_rate/

Or three weeks ago on this thread:

It's worth pointing out we can't divide 80 by 3000 to give ~3%. The deaths are delayed, so are related to the (far lower) case count a week or so ago. Of the people sick enough to present at hospital to be tested, the mortality rate is probably closer to 10%.

[Vortex2]

Or three weeks ago on this thread:

clv101 wrote:
It's worth pointing out we can't divide 80 by 3000 to give ~3%. The deaths are delayed, so are related to the (far lower) case count a week or so ago. Of the people sick enough to present at hospital to be tested, the mortality rate is probably closer to 10%.

Well done - but I wasn't here then so I hadn't seen that.

Anyway, that explains much of the fuss.

Throw in lack of medical care and that might explain the scary Chinese video leaks etc.

The police and populace are scared and react accordingly.

[PS_RalphW]

There is a story in the guardian about a Chinese film director and three members of his family dieing and his wife very ill after they self quarantined. It is not clear if they died at home, but with that level of cross infection, those videos of body bags in the streets do not seem quite so obviously fake news.

[woodburner]

Or three weeks ago on this thread:

clv101 wrote:
It's worth pointing out we can't divide 80 by 3000 to give ~3%. The deaths are delayed, so are related to the (far lower) case count a week or so ago. Of the people sick enough to present at hospital to be tested, the mortality rate is probably closer to 10%.

Well done - but I wasn't here then so I hadn't seen that.

Anyway, that explains much of the fuss.

Throw in lack of medical care and that might explain the scary Chinese video leaks etc.

The police and populace are scared and react accordingly.

It seems the way of life in urban China is everyone rushes to the hospitals, presumably expecting some miracle cure. For vaccines they are given on scheduled days, so everyone goes on the same day, queuing from very early in the morning, then there is a near stampede to get to the needle first. For corona virus, they rushed to the hospitals to get diagnosed, so that meant loads of people hanging around in close proximity. Hardly surprising the rate of spreading was high. Anyway, there are now many thousands of recovered cases.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Anyway, there are now many thousands of recovered cases.

Actually, that may not be good news. There is a phenomenon called Antibody Dependent Enhancement. (ADE) More here at Chris Martenson's latest report.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXelEi4tqAo

[PS_RalphW]

Another change in the way cases are counted has seen a big fall in the total cases count, but that is because a large number of previously suspected cases have been removed after testing negative.

South Korea has introduced a stay at home order in City with 2.5 million people as extra 30 cases diagnosed, looks like virus has broken out there.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Most of those cases relate to a cult gathering - Shincheonji Church of Jesus, The Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony. Photos indicate they like to meet Nuremburg Rally fashion - tens of thousands in stadiums - did that just happen?






The city lockdown may cramp their style.