Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:And the latest Official Figures - from Doc Tedros himself - exceed 101% of cases.
“More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover, 14% have severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath, 5% have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure, and 2% of cases are fatal,� Tedros said in Geneva. “The risk of death increases the older you are.�
It seems that 40%-60% worldwide will be infected at some point.
20% need ICU and most of these I assume have viral pneumonia.
Now one medical analysis I read said that this pneumonia leads to long term illness due to the lung damage.
So say 50% infected of which 20% get pneumonia => 10% of the world's population will suffer long term ill health.
Ready for that?
UPDATE: Just seen this good civilised video which covers this too.
Experts have raised concerns over the handling of the MS Westerdam’s passengers as they departed the ship on Friday, and warned that hundreds of people who may have been exposed to the Covid-19 virus have now scattered around the world.
As passengers disembarked, they were greeted with hugs and handshakes from the country’s prime minister, Hun Sen, an ally of China who has downplayed the threat posed by the virus.
Christina Kerby, a passenger on the ship, told Agence France-Presse on Monday she was surprised to be allowed on a tour of the Cambodian capital before being given the all-clear from the virus.
It's like a plot from a pandemic movie, with bungling officials aiding the spread of the disease...
Little John wrote:Well that's excellent news since it means the death rate will fall
Mounting evidence suggests that this disease is extremely infectious, but if you are in reasonable health and under the age of 60 your odds are pretty good. There's almost certainly still going to be a pandemic, and plenty of economic chaos, but overall death toll from the initial waves will be in the millions rather than hundreds of millions. Might still turn into an endemic class of viruses like flu though, and likely to remain a potent threat if civilisation is collapsing for unrelated reasons.
Working through the WHO figures on COVID-19, which are:
- 80% have mild disease and recover
- 14% have severe disease (pneumonia)
- 5% have critical disease (sepsis, shock, multi-organ failure)
- 2% die
Assume we have a UK population of 67m, and that 60% of people catch the disease (this is a figure given by epidemiologists). That means about 40m people in the UK catch it. The above % figures from the WHO then lead to this:
- 5.6 million people will have severe disease, including pneumonia
- 2 million people will have critical disease (sepsis, shock, multi-organ failure)
- 800,000 will die
How might our cash-strapped NHS cope with an additional 8 million people needing hospital treatment over the coming year?
- There aren't enough beds (127,000 in England)
- In 2012, there were just 69,606 patients who needed mechanical ventilation over the course of the year (not all at once)
- In 2018 there were just 5 ECMO machines in the UK
Once the morticians run out of capacity they will turn to an Army excavator. It can dig a mass grave at the rate of three bodies a minute with a bulldozer filling in behind just as fast. They can just put a cycle counter on the cherry picker plucking the body bags off the flatbed and dropping them into the trench to keep a tally.
I think the 80% mild disease is still an underestimate. Many people with mild symptoms may not realise they have the disease or may choose not to seek medical treatment, or may be being ignored by overwhelmed medical services.
I suspect that when this goes pandemic the death rate of those sick enough to need hospital treatment will rise sharply as services are overwhelmed. When thousands are being infected daily, if you are in the 5% (but probably less) who need icu treatment will have little chance of survival.
This is going to be a severe shock to the global economy, but it is not going to have a big direct impact on population levels.
Videos showing body bags in the street may be mis interpreted. If you have a population of millions on total lock down, people are going to die in their homes in significant numbers, not just from coronavirus. The old and the sick will be highly vulnerable. It would still be censured by China for showing the true brutality of total lock down, even if (and it is a big if) the procedure was effective at containment.
PS_RalphW wrote:I think the 80% mild disease is still an underestimate. Many people with mild symptoms may not realise they have the disease or may choose not to seek medical treatment, or may be being ignored by overwhelmed medical services.
I suspect that when this goes pandemic the death rate of those sick enough to need hospital treatment will rise sharply as services are overwhelmed. When thousands are being infected daily, if you are in the 5% (but probably less) who need icu treatment will have little chance of survival.
This is going to be a severe shock to the global economy, but it is not going to have a big direct impact on population levels.
Videos showing body bags in the street may be mis interpreted. If you have a population of millions on total lock down, people are going to die in their homes in significant numbers, not just from coronavirus. The old and the sick will be highly vulnerable. It would still be censured by China for showing the true brutality of total lock down, even if (and it is a big if) the procedure was effective at containment.
Excellent point. with a population of over a billion and a death rate (2019)of 7.261/1000 normal in China is about 20,000 per day. What we should be looking for is the total increase over that base rate.
The quarentined cruise ship in Japan has reached 450 cases, or 15% of the occupants from 1 known index case. This is a great experiment in bottle but it shows how deeply unhealthy cruise liners are as an environment, and how difficult or more likely incompetent the management of the quarentine.
It is now reported that the UK is to send a rescue flight for our nationals, so far 4 of whom have caught the virus.
Interestingly, feedback on the BBC comments page has been deeply negative, basically saying "they are rich bastards if they can afford a cruise, let them pay for their own flights and claim it on insurance"
Which I think shows very limited understanding of the situation the passengers are in (which is a lot better than the situation of the crew)
Even now, not all on board have been tested? Of those tested, some 25% are positive. The crew cannot self-isolate, and presumably are also preparing the food...
Incompetent quarantine, or unethical field trial allowed to run its course for the info gained?
