New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Feb 2020, 07:58

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51482994

Some 242 deaths from the new coronavirus were recorded in the Chinese province of Hubei on Wednesday - the deadliest day of the outbreak.

There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with the virus.

Hubei has started using a broader definition to diagnose people - which accounts for most of the rise in cases.

China sacked two top officials in Hubei province hours after the new figures were revealed.

Until Wednesday's increases, the number of people diagnosed in Hubei - where the outbreak emerged - was stabilising.

But the new cases and deaths in the province have pushed the national death toll above 1,350 - with almost 60,000 infections in total.

China has been accused of suppressing the full extent of the outbreak in the past; these latest figures will raise fresh questions about the true mortality rate of the virus, says the BBC's Nick Beake in Hong Kong.

Meanwhile, the Communist Party secretary in Hubei, Jiang Chaoliang, has been replaced by the Shanghai party chief, Ying Yong, according to state media. The party chief of the capital city, Wuhan, has also been relieved of his duties.

This looks is close to admission that it is out of control, and this is the week China is supposed to be getting back to normal. The CCP is absolutely f***ed. It cannot send people back to work, and it cannot not send them back to work.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 13 Feb 2020, 08:05

1) By the time it properly takes off here, it will have done the same elsewhere around the world and it will become rapidly pointless to implement quarantine measures

2) Healthcare system, both here and elsewhere will become rapidly overwhelmed leading to people being left at home to recover or die. All of which will require units in each area to pick up the dead.

3) economic supply chains of all kinds are going to be affected from mildly to severely

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 13 Feb 2020, 08:57

Transcript of BBC R4 interview yesterday with Prof Neil Ferguson, Director of MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/ ... with_prof/

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 13 Feb 2020, 10:39

Little John wrote:1) By the time it properly takes off here, it will have done the same elsewhere around the world and it will become rapidly pointless to implement quarantine measures

Agree.

Little John wrote: 2) Healthcare system, both here and elsewhere will become rapidly overwhelmed leading to people being left at home to recover or die. All of which will require units in each area to pick up the dead.

I think the 1930's TB nurse for the area will make a comeback in modern form. Agree there will be accelerated cremations.
I also think there is as we speak a plan for the pandemic. It will involve information sharing, containment and spread information, and remedial measures. There will be a lot of channel 4 whaling about how terrible the government, NHS, inequality, hotspots of infections are.

Little John wrote: 3) economic supply chains of all kinds are going to be affected from mildly to severely

This will be the bigee if the pandemic happens. At the moment, we have fiat currency IOU's being printed daily. The lower grade IOU's will default first, then a cascade of defaults will quickly pile up. The result will be private pensions will effectively become worthless, coupled with massive inflation of actual necessaries stuff, with concomitant massive pay rise for those with actual in demand skills.

It's going to be interesting.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Feb 2020, 11:01

If large numbers of old and sick people die early because of this then pension funds should see huge returns from not needing to pay pensions to dead people. It should cause cause the economy to be more profitable after any financial reset.

The decades after the black death were a boom time for the poor because they became a scarce resource. I am not sure they will be so lucky this time

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 13 Feb 2020, 11:20

PS_RalphW wrote:If large numbers of old and sick people die early because of this then pension funds should see huge returns from not needing to pay pensions to dead people. It should cause cause the economy to be more profitable after any financial reset.

Don't equate pensioners with being old! My wife 50, has just started to receive her pension (she worked for a large chemical company for twenty years) Her mother is 90 and in good health. I don't see the pension fund paying out 1.4k a month index linked for the next 45 possibly 50 years.

Also, the IOU'S will make the real economy crash. Your mattress manufacturer, brick maker, car plant are indebted up to the eyeballs via corporate bonds. Once the consumer switches their credit card off they are gone. Toast.

PS_RalphW wrote: The decades after the black death were a boom time for the poor because they became a scarce resource. I am not sure they will be so lucky this time

After the black death labour was scarce. Human labour was a source of energy. We now have fossil fuels.

This time will see possibly 10's of millions with no job. With all that entails.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 13 Feb 2020, 11:21

Or.....

Each world government will print like crazy?

Post by **mikepepler** » 13 Feb 2020, 13:37

North London GP surgery closed due to coronavirus

A notice on the website of Ritchie Street Health Centre, in Islington, says:

"Practice is closed until 14/02/2020 due to the coronavirus. Any patients that have the symptoms should call 111 and not come to the practice."

London announced its first case of coronavirus today, after a woman presented at Lewisham hospital in south London with symptoms. It is unclear whether the new case is connected with the closure of the Gp surgery.

from https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:02

4 new cases in Japan in the last 48 hours, none of which have any known connection to previous cases. Japanese have been testing everybody with relevant symptoms, not just known contacts. The clear implication is that there are numerous undetected cases in and H-to-H transmission in Japan. And that means there are almost certainly undetected cases in other places, including the UK. 2 of the new Japanese cases are taxi drivers.

I think we can call this as a pandemic now. It will not be contained, anywhere. And we still don't have any idea what the death rate is. Not a clue.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200213_42/

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:11

Also now being reported that multiple locations in China are bringing in new lockdown rules. Huanggang (pop 6m) has now prohibited people from leaving their houses. Anyone who goes out, at all, will be arrested. Authorities say they will provide everything needed.

That is f***ed up. It is completely unsustainable. Not even in China can this be made to work.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:25

Haemophiliac toddler with a lung condition now suspected case in Worthing:

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1823237 ... cted-case/

Mrs Elephant is already terrified about this. It's too close for comfort. She's been given permission from work to work from home "until we know what we are dealing with." We are now going to minimise contact with the outside world. My best friend's husband works in Brighton. She's been looking after our daughter on Tuesday mornings, but I think that is going to have to stop now.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:26

mikepepler wrote:
North London GP surgery closed due to coronavirus

A notice on the website of Ritchie Street Health Centre, in Islington, says:

"Practice is closed until 14/02/2020 due to the coronavirus. Any patients that have the symptoms should call 111 and not come to the practice."

London announced its first case of coronavirus today, after a woman presented at Lewisham hospital in south London with symptoms. It is unclear whether the new case is connected with the closure of the Gp surgery.
from https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news

Surgery closure doesn't seem connected. Because -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -uber-taxi

Post by **mikepepler** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:36

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
mikepepler wrote:
North London GP surgery closed due to coronavirus

A notice on the website of Ritchie Street Health Centre, in Islington, says:

"Practice is closed until 14/02/2020 due to the coronavirus. Any patients that have the symptoms should call 111 and not come to the practice."

London announced its first case of coronavirus today, after a woman presented at Lewisham hospital in south London with symptoms. It is unclear whether the new case is connected with the closure of the Gp surgery.
from https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news
Surgery closure doesn't seem connected. Because -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -uber-taxi

So there's another possible chain of infection then....

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:41

It's also breaking out in Singapore. For the time being, their stats would be more reliable than anything from China.

On 30 Jan, they declared 10 cases. 6 Feb, 28, today 58. With 7 in ICU.

Technophobe, posting at
http://www.avianflutalk.com/singapore-r ... 40964.html

said

7 in intensive care? Usually 1/4 of those in intensive care die.

That gives a CFR of 1.5/58 X 100 = 2% That is actually good news - assuming no more enter the ICU.

But he's overlooking the time lag. Those severe cases could be from anywhere among from the 10, to 28. So perhaps 4% - But working in the opposite direction as far as CFR calculation goes, are the undetected, spreading the disease across a packed-out island.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 13 Feb 2020, 14:55

US government says they think there are 100,000 unreported cases in China and their CDC people have not been allowed to ground zero of the outbreak to learn critical information about the virus.