New coronavirus in/from China

[stumuz1]

Just in case you were enjoying your Friday night, more apocalyptic musings from Ambrose of the Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ronavirus/

[clv101]

This is interesting: https://twitter.com/nard_info/status/12 ... 49601?s=20

The raw case fatality rate (deaths/cases) - which a lot of folk have been using to generate the false answer of around 2% not talking account the lag, the time to death - has been calculated for different regions.

Wuhan, which is a couple weeks ahead of other areas now has a CFR of 4.1%. Wuhan has 75% of deaths but only 37% of cases!

[UndercoverElephant]

10mins of proper news:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCY ... e=youtu.be

[PS_RalphW]

Wuhan, which is a couple weeks ahead of other areas now has a CFR of 4.1%. Wuhan has 75% of deaths but only 37% of cases!

Wuhan is overwhelmed. Only the most obviously ill are getting into hospital to be tested. Minor or moderate cases are turned away from the hospitals and emergency centres. That makes the over reporting of severe cases inevitable relative to minor cases.

Far more people are infected, but the death rate is less than 4%

Further efforts at containment are now pointless within China. The country needs to close its borders entirely if it wants to avoid a pandemic but release internal quarentine.

Almost certainly even that would be too late. The zero cases in Africa and Indonesia are proof that the virus has spread to those areas and is in the wild, because statistically, the movement of known numbers of untested Chinese nationals to those areas make it statistically impossible for there to be no virus cases among them.

When this finally arrives in the UK it will appear where no one will be looking to find it.

[PS_RalphW]

5 members of British family including child test positive in France, infected by the British national case in Brighton.

[UndercoverElephant]

5 members of British family including child test positive in France, infected by the British national case in Brighton.

Details here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51425702

Although that article is quite hard to follow, and has the odour of a cover-up (or at least telling people not to panic when it looks like there is pretty good reason to worry). If this thing has been on the loose in Brighton for the last week then it won't be contained.

[Little John]

It is telling that BBC report included the sentence "What should I do if I suspect I have the virus?"

The authorities know full well it is all only a matter of time

I have just contacted son number 2. The contract he is on is at a college in Brighton. It is at a college in Brighton where one of the cases is from. I need to find out if it is the same college as he has been at.

I wish I was f***ing joking. But, I'm not.

[adam2]

Meanwhile, I am assured by my former neighbours that "anti corona pills" are available in the market in Peckham.
A bargain at only £25 a pack, or £50 for "extra strong"

Presumably someone must be taken in by this rubbish.

[mikepepler]

Details here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51425702

Although that article is quite hard to follow, and has the odour of a cover-up (or at least telling people not to panic when it looks like there is pretty good reason to worry). If this thing has been on the loose in Brighton for the last week then it won't be contained.

Indeed. The timeline given in this article reads like this:
- man visits Singapore 20-23 Jan, catches the virus while there.
- man visits France 24-28 Jan, unaware that he has the virus and infects five people.
- man returns to the UK 28 Jan, but we have no info about how he travelled and who he might have interacted with on the way.
- Man self-quarantines (but when? and why? Presumably he felt ill) and is tested. But we don't know if this was on the 28th or later, and what he did in between.
- Man's positive test comes on 6 Feb, and his contacts (including the people in France are tested.

So I assume he's spread it to people he interacted with while travelling to the UK, maybe more people in the UK, and maybe more in France as well. And much of this while he was showing no symptoms.

I reckon we have 1-2 weeks before we see cases popping up all over the UK. The trouble is, some people will ignore symptoms because they haven't been to an at-risk country (like those in France who were infected by this man), and others would rather assume it's a cold or flue than get tested to find out it's coronavirus.

[mikepepler]

Some interesting videos from this doctor, who trains nurses. Some good common sense stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcF6CZ8f8j8

[UndercoverElephant]

Details here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51425702

Although that article is quite hard to follow, and has the odour of a cover-up (or at least telling people not to panic when it looks like there is pretty good reason to worry). If this thing has been on the loose in Brighton for the last week then it won't be contained.

Indeed. The timeline given in this article reads like this:
- man visits Singapore 20-23 Jan, catches the virus while there.
- man visits France 24-28 Jan, unaware that he has the virus and infects five people.
- man returns to the UK 28 Jan, but we have no info about how he travelled and who he might have interacted with on the way.
- Man self-quarantines (but when? and why? Presumably he felt ill) and is tested. But we don't know if this was on the 28th or later, and what he did in between.
- Man's positive test comes on 6 Feb, and his contacts (including the people in France are tested.

So I assume he's spread it to people he interacted with while travelling to the UK, maybe more people in the UK, and maybe more in France as well. And much of this while he was showing no symptoms.

I reckon we have 1-2 weeks before we see cases popping up all over the UK. The trouble is, some people will ignore symptoms because they haven't been to an at-risk country (like those in France who were infected by this man), and others would rather assume it's a cold or flue than get tested to find out it's coronavirus.

Sounds about right.

Brighton is also just about the worst place for this to have happened. Quite a high population density, and a lot of people using public transport because it is intentionally anti-car. This time of year there are plentiful buses rammed full of people. They are already perfect breeding grounds for colds and flu. Then on top of that you've got two universities and a ridiculous amount of socialising going on, even in February. There could easily be hundreds of people incubating that virus in Brighton right now.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Done a rough attempt at getting the true fatality rate based on this.

http://www.avianflutalk.com/china-burni ... 40618.html

Of the 127 bodies received by the crematorium on Monday, eight were diagnosed with the virus, while 48 were suspected of having the illness, based on their death certificates, the official said.

The funeral home one of seven government-run funeral parlors with crematoriums in Wuhan City: three are in the downtown area, while the other four service suburban areas, according to the city’s Civil Affairs Bureau.

So, on Monday 4th... The official cumulative death toll stood at 362, and 57 had supposedly died that day.

Assuming the undertakers to be roughly of equal capacity and the workload distributed evenly - then the other six received 49 officially certified cases - also 8 each. So that tallies, bar one body. If all others received 8 certified and 48 suspect cases, then the true death toll that day was 392. If the cumulative total was equally understated, 2896 was the true figure then. If the spread the previous week had reached 1% of the circa 8m population - (8m being conservative on the 5m already left Wuhan from normal 11m population) - the 1% figure is based on the prevalence in the repatriated flights - then the true number of cases a week ago was 80k, (in line with the Lancet paper estimate of 75k) . This gives a fatality rate of 3.62%. Could be more, but couldn't factor in the especially busy crem, (mentioned in the linked report) and this is all rough estimation anyway. But certainly more credible than Chinese official data, parroted by the WHO - who want field study access and continued funding from one of their main benefactors. Calling them out for dodgy stats would serve no purpose.

[clv101]

I reckon the fatality rate will end up being around 5% give or take.

I'm reading The Pandemic Century by Mark Honigsbaum this week.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Brighton is also just about the worst place for this to have happened.

Better quarantine the place sharpish. And for good measure, Hartlepool as well. Just in case. Right old den of iniquity.

[mikepepler]

Indeed. The timeline given in this article reads like this:
- man visits Singapore 20-23 Jan, catches the virus while there.
- man visits France 24-28 Jan, unaware that he has the virus and infects five people.
- man returns to the UK 28 Jan, but we have no info about how he travelled and who he might have interacted with on the way.
- Man self-quarantines (but when? and why? Presumably he felt ill) and is tested. But we don't know if this was on the 28th or later, and what he did in between.
- Man's positive test comes on 6 Feb, and his contacts (including the people in France are tested.

So I assume he's spread it to people he interacted with while travelling to the UK, maybe more people in the UK, and maybe more in France as well. And much of this while he was showing no symptoms.

I reckon we have 1-2 weeks before we see cases popping up all over the UK. The trouble is, some people will ignore symptoms because they haven't been to an at-risk country (like those in France who were infected by this man), and others would rather assume it's a cold or flue than get tested to find out it's coronavirus.

Sounds about right.

Brighton is also just about the worst place for this to have happened. Quite a high population density, and a lot of people using public transport because it is intentionally anti-car. This time of year there are plentiful buses rammed full of people. They are already perfect breeding grounds for colds and flu. Then on top of that you've got two universities and a ridiculous amount of socialising going on, even in February. There could easily be hundreds of people incubating that virus in Brighton right now.

Well, here we go, some more information.

After getting back to Brighton on 28 Jan, having unknowingly infected the people in France, this guy clearly spent a while spreading it around locally without knowing, because on Sat 1 Feb he spent an evening in the pub:
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18221558.amp/

Several staff members at a pub have been advised to "self-isolate" after a man with coronavirus visited their workplace.

A reported five employees who were working on the night the man was at The Grenadier in Hangleton Way, Hove, have been told to stay at home.

A source told The Argus the infected man visited between 7pm and 9pm last Saturday.

It really is well and truly out in the UK now, I guess we'll be seeing more cases within a week.