New coronavirus in/from China

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 04 Feb 2020, 18:14

clv101 wrote:This is the 'big one', billion+ likely to be infected and the economic consequences significant, far larger impact than 2008 crash.

Let's hope so

Post by **clv101** » 04 Feb 2020, 19:05

There was a business report on the Worldservice today, talked about the car factories in South Korea shutting down for lack of parts from China, OPEC are worried about China's crashing oil imports (China's biggest refinery has cut production 12%), iron and copper mining companies in Brazil are expecting falls in demand, the America tourism industry seems highly dependent on Chinese tourists. Then there's all the local companies in China, missing workforce, unable to produce anything, bills to pay...

These direct impacts are significant, but they could well be the (not so little) straw that breaks the back of the global economy.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 04 Feb 2020, 20:21

I think the most important info in the WHO sitrep is not the infected/death ie 17500/~400 but the severe ill at 2300. Thats about 13%. If that percentage need ICU treatment, then medicine is going to crash everywhere:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... f7347413_2

new one - severe is up:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 88fe8ad6_2

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 04 Feb 2020, 21:32

That's the top and bottom of it. I want to see how many of those who are severely ill with it either go on to full recovery, partial recovery or die. It's also worth pondering what the survival rate of those who are being reported as "severe", who currently will be part of the cohort presented to and being treated by the medical system, would be if they were out in the world on their own without medical assistance. Because, if this thing gets fully out and beyond the resources of the worlds medical systems to cope, most people who end up getting this virus will, indeed, be on their own in terms of medical care.

Post by **clv101** » 04 Feb 2020, 22:24

Lots of interested data in this page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... _territory

I trust the data from other places more than I do China. Germany is particularly interesting how one Chinese visitor manages to infect so many.

Post by **clv101** » 04 Feb 2020, 22:33

Little John wrote:It's also worth pondering what the survival rate of those who are being reported as "severe", who currently will be part of the cohort presented to and being treated by the medical system, would be if they were out in the world on their own without medical assistance. Because, if this thing gets fully out and beyond the resources of the worlds medical systems to cope, most people who end up getting this virus will, indeed, be on their own in terms of medical care.

Yes, that's a good point. With the SARs in 2003, in Hong Kong, it took 5 weeks to die - partly because every death spent a couple of weeks in ICU on a ventilator. That level of medical support obviously won't be available to any more than a few hundred cases in any given territory. The death rate in a 1,000 case outbreak could be lower than a 100,000 case outbreak even if the the 100,000 symptoms aren't as bad.

This has the hallmarks of relatively mild, but mass exposure, compared with something like MERS or Ebola which are very serious, but relatively small exposure.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 Feb 2020, 22:50

clv101 wrote:This is the 'big one', billion+ likely to be infected and the economic consequences significant, far larger impact than 2008 crash.

Looking more and more likely all the time, yes. You can't quarantine several entire cities until May, and within 2-3 weeks it will become obvious that there's no point in even trying, because the thing you are trying to contain has already escaped.

There's no precedent to compare it to. "Spanish Flu" will be what people compare it to, but this virus isn't flu and 2020 isn't 1918.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 Feb 2020, 23:02

Latest official stats out of Hubei Province:

Hubei province: 3156 new cases and 65 new deaths.

125 discharged 1809 severe condition 711 critical condition

new confirmed cases: 1967 in Wuhan, 104 in Huangshi, 27 in Shiyan, 103 in Xiangyang, 44 in Yichang, 100 in Jingzhou City, 22 in Jingmen City, 50 in Ezhou City, 342 in Xiaogan City, 223 in Huanggang City, 36 in Xianning City, 65 in Suizhou City, 15 in Enshi Prefecture, 37 in Xiantao City, 11 in Tianmen City and 10 in Qianjiang City

I don't see how this genie can be put back in its bottle. Those numbers are too big, and the true number of infections must be much higher.

Also being reported that there are 10 cases suspected among 3700 people now quarantined on a cruise ship in Japan.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 04 Feb 2020, 23:20

I sat next to a coughing Chinese lady on the tube this evening. Normally I wouldn't have given it a second thought.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 05 Feb 2020, 08:24

As of 2020-02-05 08:08:40 UTC, there are 24567 total confirmed cases in the world, with 493 fatalities.

Mainland China has 24337 total confirmed cases, with 491 fatalities.

Additionally, China has 3219 serious cases, 892 recoveries, and 23260 suspected cases.

Other nearby regions have 39 total confirmed cases, with 1 fatalities.

Internationally, there are 191 total confirmed cases, with 1 fatalities.

Furthermore, 24 countries are reporting coronavirus cases, including China.

24337 confirmed cases, only 892 recoveries. And we know this virus may take 6 weeks to kill people.

That means the vast majority of the confirmed cases are still ill, and we have no idea how many of them are getting better and how many are still deteriorating.

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 09:16

kenneal - lagger wrote:I sat next to a coughing Chinese lady on the tube this evening. Normally I wouldn't have given it a second thought.

I've been using rental bikes in London since last week, to avoid the tube...

Post by **mikepepler** » 05 Feb 2020, 09:23

UndercoverElephant wrote:
As of 2020-02-05 08:08:40 UTC, there are 24567 total confirmed cases in the world, with 493 fatalities.

Mainland China has 24337 total confirmed cases, with 491 fatalities.

Additionally, China has 3219 serious cases, 892 recoveries, and 23260 suspected cases.

Other nearby regions have 39 total confirmed cases, with 1 fatalities.

Internationally, there are 191 total confirmed cases, with 1 fatalities.

Furthermore, 24 countries are reporting coronavirus cases, including China.
24337 confirmed cases, only 892 recoveries. And we know this virus may take 6 weeks to kill people.

That means the vast majority of the confirmed cases are still ill, and we have no idea how many of them are getting better and how many are still deteriorating.

This may overtake SARS in total deaths by the weekend, so media outlets will no longer be able to say "don't worry, it's not as bad as SARS" any more. As has been pointed out earlier, it's the sheer number of people that need hospital treatment that's worrying, but doesn't seem to figure in the news reports very much./

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 05 Feb 2020, 09:32

It's the very fact it is not figuring in those reports that is worrying. It is now getting to the point that avoiding talking about that is clearly becoming an unambiguous editorial decision.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 05 Feb 2020, 09:55

What doesn't feature in the news at all is the doubling time (about 4 days) and the implications of that exponential growth.

The Singapore and a Malaysian case were spread at an unidentified international conference held at the Grand Hyatt. In the most densely populated place on earth.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 05 Feb 2020, 10:15

Also, the increasing withdrawal of flights to China.

Considering the eye watering western investments in China, advising against travel is a HUGE decision, and one TPTB would give anything to avoid.