New coronavirus in/from China

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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard II »

Little John wrote:It's out now. All efforts to contain it will become progressively more pointless. At what point that becomes acknowledged as a fact on the ground is not yet clear. but, it will be pretty soon I reckon.

The next question for individuals is what are they going to do to protect themselves from getting it or, indeed, if there is any point in trying to do so. If, as seems to be the case, this virus is more or less the same as the common cold in term of virulence, then it seems to me that it is, as mentioned, impossible to contain and it is likely to be circulating for years. So, I am wondering if there is much point worrying about contracting it. Instead, an individual's best option might be to make sure they are stocked up on essential foods in case of food supply chains being interrupted due to a lot of people being ill at one. Also, have a supply of anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen) and oxygen on hand in case you need it when you get ill.

Other than that, get on with living.
Agree with all that.

I guess PowerSwitchers generally are the types who are the keenest to anticipate and mitigate aggro from whatever cause. Like fuel shortages.
Quietly planning and stockpiling where possible.

Last year, for me, it was the prospect of Hard Brexit. (Which has just resurfaced). And now this. The degree and fine-tuning of preps are driven by one's own vulnerability (Me and Mrs Mustard are both diabetic) and freedom to prepare.

Got the ibuprofen and paracetamol. Surface and hand wioes, kleenex, bleach. And a digital thermometer, face masks (albeit the builder's type) and other than that, restored the provisions to where they stood for Hard Brexit shortages. So that's maybe £100 spent, but not wasted - it'll all get used.

What we're all essentially trying to do now is monitor the spread and severity to justify further progressive responses. Sensible hygiene measures. Avoiding big crowds, doing brief supply runs while possible, then avoiding non-essential public and finally, family gatherings. Coping with lock-downs. And planning particular care for high risk environments like GP surgeries, pharmacies and hospitals. As each wave passes, reassess the situation.

And then get on with living - because your foresight meant you avoided the panic rush.

8)
Little John

Post by Little John »

My, missus (who works in York hospital and lives in York at her sister's Monday to Friday) and me were discussing what she should do this weekend. In the end, we decided she is going back to York today and basically, F--k it. If she gets it she gets it and I will go and pick her up and look after we will take our chances. And vice versa.

Who knows, maybe she, along with half of York, has already got it, and given it to me.... :lol:
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:It's out now. All efforts to contain it will become progressively more pointless. At what point that becomes acknowledged as a fact on the ground is not yet clear. but, it will be pretty soon I reckon.

The next question for individuals is what are they going to do to protect themselves from getting it or, indeed, if there is any point in trying to do so. If, as seems to be the case, this virus is more or less the same as the common cold in term of virulence, then it seems to me that it is, as mentioned, impossible to contain and it is likely to be circulating for years. So, I am wondering if there is much point worrying about contracting it. Instead, an individual's best option might be to make sure they are stocked up on essential foods in case of food supply chains being interrupted due to a lot of people being ill at one. Also, have a supply of anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen) and oxygen on hand in case you need it when you get ill.

Other than that, get on with living.
Yes, it is very likely this is now going to turn into a new disease, like flu. No point in trying to avoid catching it. You will inevitably catch it sooner or later. Although presumably it will be dealt with like flu, once a vaccine is available.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Reports that China is introducing enforced quarantine fir suspected cases in quarantine zones using empty hotels and other facilities
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Mean Mr Mustard II
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard II »

PS_RalphW wrote:Reports that China is introducing enforced quarantine fir suspected cases in quarantine zones using empty hotels and other facilities
That'll be maybe 100000 now, not all symptomatic yet. Too late.

There's already 8 suspected and 18 confirmed among the 3000+ just flown out on the repatriation flights.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Apparently there's a joke going around on Twitter regarding the British evacuees transported in four coaches by the Horseman coach company from Brize Norton to hospital.

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that.
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

Think there were seven coaches.

If I'm reading this right, 36 (maybe ~30%) people on the second rescue plane to France had symptoms: https://www.laprovence.com/actu/en-dire ... stres.html
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

Got the ibuprofen and paracetamol. Surface and hand wioes, kleenex, bleach. And a digital thermometer, face masks (albeit the builder's type)
Well I suppose you could argue that lot might be usable for something, but for dealing with a virus, you need to change the approach.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

UndercoverElephant wrote: Yes, it is very likely this is now going to turn into a new disease, like flu. No point in trying to avoid catching it. You will inevitably catch it sooner or later. Although presumably it will be dealt with like flu, once a vaccine is available.
Change the thinking. With the acceptance you will inevitably catch it, indicates you are not doing what is needed to avoid getting it. You earn diseases because of failing to adequately maintain the system.

Anti inflammatories, hand wipes, builders masks and an anal thermometer won’t do it.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/heal ... china.html
The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found.

“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,� said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.�
So what we have is an outbreak of a new disease that is rather like flu, but somewhat worse, to which nobody has any immunity, we have no vaccines and the scientists are starting from almost a blank slate.

I think we can safely say the pandemic which looks unavoidable is going to cause considerably more deaths than SARS, MERS or swine flu, and vastly more economic damage. Two big questions now are (1) can western nations contain it and (2) will it die down over the northern hemisphere summer like colds and flu do. If the answer to both is no then the death toll could easily run into millions, even tens of millions.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 03 Feb 2020, 02:01, edited 1 time in total.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

woodburner wrote:. You earn diseases because of failing to adequately maintain the system.
That is a bit too new-agey for me.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Millions may die, but most will be the old and the sick. Global population growth will not be stopped, the birth rate will be unaffected. Few economically active people will be lost. Far more damage will be done to the economy by attempts to control the virus.
Millions sick at the same time will cause problems with our just in time logistics, but I do not think this is the big one which will tip industrial civilisation over the edge.

Personally it will be devastating for the victims of course
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Post by clv101 »

PS_RalphW wrote:...but I do not think this is the big one which will tip industrial civilisation over the edge.
That all depends how close we are to the edge. The straw that broke the camel's back?
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:...but I do not think this is the big one which will tip industrial civilisation over the edge.
That all depends how close we are to the edge. The straw that broke the camel's back?
It feels like we're pretty close to the edge of something, but I don't think it is the end of industrial civilisation. On the other hand, I'm not sure exactly what it is. Something to do with economics/money/ideology/culture/politics.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Latest reports from the Chinese provincial governments confirm another 2829 cases and 57 deaths, bringing the total in the country to 17205 cases and 361 deaths - Feb. 3, 2020. In addition, a total of 475 patients have recovered and been discharged, and a further 21558 individuals are suspected of infection. At present, 189,583 close contacts have been tracked. Of the 1,055 medical observations released on the day, a total of 152,700 people are receiving medical observations.

Source: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/s7860/202002/ ... 9a51.shtml
So that is 21558 new "suspected cases" in 24 hours, right? (google translation)
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