New coronavirus in/from China

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 16:45

adam2 wrote:It seems to me that one or more of the following must be true.

1) That the situation in china is far worse than is being admitted to, hence the apparent over reaction to the reported situation, which might actually
be a reasonable response to the ACTUAL situation.

It is presumably this, though "worse" could mean several different things. My guess is that the disease is highly infectious but slow to incubate and progress, taking 3-4 weeks before it makes a significant proportion of people ill enough to require intensive care. That is a recipe for bringing down any healthcare system in the world, which in China represents a direct threat to the communist party's perceived right to rule.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 17:53

fuzzy wrote:We have a few days holiday in darkest Wales in April. It's a frustratingly long time away. Probably just medium risk, but it might well be the last holiday for a long time, if the hotel is still operating by then.

Possible heavy discounts on York hotels soon.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 17:59

adam2 wrote:
1) That the situation in china is far worse than is being admitted to, hence the apparent over reaction to the reported situation, which might actually
be a reasonable response to the ACTUAL situation.

Subset of the above proposition -

Tin foil hat ON.

An unauthorised secret clinical trail conducted on captive Enemies of the People, with alarming results.

Tin foil hat OFF.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 18:16

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... than-10000

Unfortunately, in an ironic twist of fate, it turned out that the City Mayor himself was found to be the 'Super Spreader', due to the top-down hierarchy which insisted on having Pointless Meetings to praise the progress and wisdom of the leaders.Â Â It began (and ended) with the regular personal visits of the Neighbourhood Committee sub-officials overseeing every household - including the infected ones.Â

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 19:17

My humble spreadsheet forecast death toll by 15 Feb = 6800.

Now doubling every four days, not two. Whatever. Doublings are a scary notion. The following four weeks? Beware the Ides of March.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 01 Feb 2020, 19:38

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 19:50

Feeling lucky?

https://www.planespotters.net/photo/812 ... -737-8-max

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:00

https://new.reddit.com/r/coronavirus_ecstasy/

coronavirus_E C S T A S Y is a meet up of anti-humans and pro-viruses, who see great delight upon the coronavirus blessing. It's posts will include memes, updates about the coronavirus, and links towards the most chaotic of events

Post by **clv101** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:05

I've been reading some of the SARs academic literature. There are some particularly shocking bits:

This paper for example on the 2003 Hong Kong outbreak:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/

From 11 March up to 6 June, a total of 1750 cases had been identified, and during the same period 286 people died of the disease.

So a fatality rate of 16%.

Goes on to detail how an outbreak was associated with guy having diarrhoea, visiting a block of flats, the toilets U-bends typically not being full of water and the virus spreading from bathroom to bathroom, via the shared soil stacks. Key point - SARS was in the stools, person to person contact not required.

Then, the real kicker, this paper about the 2003 Taiwan outbreak:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322921/

Which includes this incredible paragraph:

In our study, the gap between mean time from admission to reclassification as probable SARS case-patient was 12.56 days; and the mean time from admission to a caseâ€™s being ruled out as a SARS case was 2.11 days. When first admitted with symptoms, a patient is treated with an antimicrobial drug. When the symptoms subsequently subside, the patient status is usually downgraded and the patient is removed from the category of suspected SARS case-patients after a few days of observation. Moreover, anyone who is symptomatic, had contact with this person, but shows no lingering symptoms will also be subsequently quickly downgraded. Hence, a mean estimate of 2.11 days from admission to being ruled out as a case seems reasonable. On the other hand, if the antimicrobial treatment does not yield marked improvement, a person is kept under observation for >7 days, when either lung x-rays or other tests (antibody test or polymerase chain reaction) will determine if the patientâ€™s case should be reclassified as probable SARS. The mean of 12.56 days suggests some delay, either in the cross-checking of diagnostic test results or in the reporting procedure. Confusion regarding case definition and diagnostic procedure (13) might also contribute to the delay. The mean time from classification of a case as probable to death is 24.31 days, implying a mean admission to death time of 36.87 days.

The mean time from classification of a case as probable to death is 24.31 days, implying a mean admission to death time of 36.87 days.

Code: Select all

Interval for&#58;                                                      Taiwan  Hong Kong
Admission to designation as a probable case-patient to death       36.87   35.9 days
Admission to designation as a probable case-patient to discharge	23.94   23.5 days

If I'm reading this right, SARs took 5 weeks to kill people, and people (who recovered) were discharged in a little over three weeks.

Where are we with this new coronavirus?

259 deaths but only 243 patient discharges. Seeing as with SARs discharges happened faster than deaths it's alarming that the death rate is outpacing the discharge rate.

Also - there were only 45 cases on the 16th Jan, only two weeks ago, where have all these deaths come from?!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:10

A couple of days old. Nurse claims the infection is much worse than being reported:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd6GsuXiw80

Post by **clv101** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:10

Also see this chart from Hong Kong SARs:

link

Note the approximate 3-4 week lag between the case curve and death curve rising.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:17

clv101 wrote:...Where are we with this new coronavirus?

259 deaths but only 243 patient discharges. Seeing as with SARs discharges happened faster than deaths it's alarming that the death rate is outpacing the discharge rate.

Also - there were only 45 cases on the 16th Jan, only two weeks ago, where have all these deaths come from?!

That's what's been bothering me ever since the numbers started coming in

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:27

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

There have been several cases of infected people displaying no symptoms, but itâ€™s still unclear whether such asymptomatic or mild cases are common, and whether or how infectious they are. â€œWeâ€™re possibly looking at a virus thatâ€™s going to be with us for a long time, possibly forever,â€� says Mackay.

So we're potentially talking about a new endemic disease, like flu but quite a lot worse. There are world-changing possibilities here, especially if it mutates quite rapidly too.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:30

clv101 wrote: Also - there were only 45 cases on the 16th Jan, only two weeks ago, where have all these deaths come from?!

Presumably there were far more than 45 cases on 16th Jan.

Post by **mikepepler** » 01 Feb 2020, 20:57

clv101 wrote:The mean time from classification of a case as probable to death is 24.31 days, implying a mean admission to death time of 36.87 days.

This is going to seriously clog up hospitals, with the result that people will who may have recovered will die from lack of treatment, as will people needing life-saving treatment for unrelated illness or accident.

There's also this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZV3GG

For China to be asking other countries to help it out does not bode well for when other countries also have high numbers of cases and need supplies too. Especially as I saw an image earlier of a box of disposable face masks with 'Made in Wuhan' printed on it...