New coronavirus in/from China

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 21:17

clv101 wrote:The case data is remarkably smooth so far (almost looks like an undergrad has made up their data!).

From Wikipedia:

Date Cases
16/01/2020 45
17/01/2020 62
18/01/2020 121
19/01/2020 198
20/01/2020 291
21/01/2020 440
22/01/2020 571
23/01/2020 830
24/01/2020 1287
25/01/2020 1975
26/01/2020 2744

Sticking that in Excel gives the exponential function: y=33.1e^0.4094x
Taking us to 23,000 cases by Fri 31st. Seems unlikely?

Well, today is the 31st. 9720 confirmed. With the test kits available. And sadly, 213 deaths. Suggesting it's slowing down - or unrecorded.

Post by **clv101** » 31 Jan 2020, 22:32

Continuing that series looks like this:

Date Cases
16/01/2020 45
17/01/2020 62
18/01/2020 121
19/01/2020 198
20/01/2020 291
21/01/2020 440
22/01/2020 571
23/01/2020 830
24/01/2020 1287
25/01/2020 1975
26/01/2020 2744
27/01/2020 4515
28/01/2020 5974
29/01/2020 7711
30/01/2020 9692

Don't have 31st yet. The last fours days have been slower than the previous exponential growth. The exponential curve lands at 18k by 31st, but that's strongly influenced by earlier data.

Interestingly the last four days, 27th-30th had added 1771, 1459, 1737 and 1981 new cases respectively. I think there's a good chance there's increasing rates of under reporting. How come on the 27th we added 1771 new cases from a base of only 2744 but on the 30th we only added 1981 cases from a base of 7711 (nearly three times as large)?

I think there probably are limits to daily testing, or maybe the propensity to test has lessened.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 22:56

clv101 wrote:
I think there probably are limits to daily testing, or maybe the propensity to test has lessened.

Reported shortages of test kits. This is why i think tracking death trends in isolation is more reliable.

So far, relatively few.

Post by **clv101** » 31 Jan 2020, 23:19

Data for 31st is in: 11,145 so +1,453. That's the ~same number of new cases as we added on the 28th, from a base half the size.

Maybe containment is working? I think it's more likely the proportion of undiagnosed cases has increased.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 01 Feb 2020, 06:10

Containment might work in China eventually, but it would only take one undiagnosed case in a country without containment to set off a new hotspot in the local population. If all the victims are locals and most of them are mild cases, it could spread rapidly, especially if it was a country with very few doctors, say in parts of Africa. The ebola outbreak has still not been ended in Congo.

Secondary local transmission has already occured in Germany with a German child of an existing victim. If that child had been attending school, we may have a new hotspot. That in a wealthy country with monitoring and containment.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 06:32

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... ong-130565

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 08:13

clv101 wrote:I think it's more likely the proportion of undiagnosed cases has increased.

Yes. We are well past the point where the Chinese system can even keep track of how many cases there are. They certainly cannot trace all the contacts or offer treatment to anyone but the most severely affected. The Chinese statistics are increasingly meaningless from this point onwards.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 08:44

The 'official' death rate has stabilised. The Boeing 737 Max killed far more.

But China has closed down - probably more have died unseen for want of transport / care from non-virus causes.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 01 Feb 2020, 14:09

From twitter: "Huanggang, a city of 6 million people near Wuhan, bans people from leaving their home in effort to stop coronavirus; 1 person per family can leave every other day to buy basic needs."

Post by **clv101** » 01 Feb 2020, 14:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:From twitter: "Huanggang, a city of 6 million people near Wuhan, bans people from leaving their home in effort to stop coronavirus; 1 person per family can leave every other day to buy basic needs."

It's hard to square statements like that, if true, with the official data of only a couple hundred deaths and a stabilised rate of infection. I could well be wrong, but I suspect the official data is increasingly underestimating the reality on the ground.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 15:04

Strongly agree. Something not adding up, alright.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 15:07

The shutdown in Hubei is now extended to 13 Feb. Something will give before then. No incoming supplies, or people having no means of paying for food as they are allowed out occasionally.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 01 Feb 2020, 15:25

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... than-10000

Post by **adam2** » 01 Feb 2020, 15:28

It seems to me that one or more of the following must be true.

1) That the situation in china is far worse than is being admitted to, hence the apparent over reaction to the reported situation, which might actually
be a reasonable response to the ACTUAL situation.

2) That the virus has in fact been circulating for months or even years within china, and that efforts to develop an effective vaccine or other treatment have failed. The Chinese authorities therefore know that it is effectively untreatable.

3) That the virus was developed as a bio weapon and escaped from a secure research facility. A specifically developed virus might be designed to be more dangerous than a natural virus.
It might for example be DESIGNED to mutate quickly and frequently so as to frustrate efforts to develop treatment.
Or might be able to lie dormant and "hide" for years like anthrax spores do.
Those who designed it would know the risks and therefore take draconian action against spread.

4) That this outbreak is actually a bio terrorism attack "give us loads of money and release our brothers from prison, or will spread a nasty disease"
Demands not met, threat carried out.

5) LGM or other tin foil hat theories.

The above in order of probability, IMHO.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 01 Feb 2020, 15:46

We have a few days holiday in darkest Wales in April. It's a frustratingly long time away. Probably just medium risk, but it might well be the last holiday for a long time, if the hotel is still operating by then.