New coronavirus in/from China

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 31 Jan 2020, 01:34

Deaths now at 213, has overtaken SARS. No update on the suspected York case, UK official risk has gone from low to medium.

Reports from the original city is that the hospitals are overwhelmed, do I suspect triage is going on and only the most severe cases are hospitalised, and this exaggerates the death rate. That said, it is a clear indication that the disease is out of control, and will Inevitably spread worldwide, with hospital services becoming overwhelmed everywhere.

We will only see the true death rate in the rear view mirror.

Catch it early and avoid the rush

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 31 Jan 2020, 01:38

If someone gets pneumonia and the hospitals are overrun, then the only thing that can help is oxygen. Medical grade oxygen is not available to the public. But, welding grade is and is 99% guaranteed pure due to them having to clean the cylinders to ensure no other flammable material is in there. It's a running joke among welders that a cure for a hangover is the oxygen cylinder.

Welding oxygen is pretty cheap.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 07:56

It may be worthwhile tracking the number of cases confirmed on the various repatriation flights. These serving as random population samples. If the 3 confirmed from 206 on the first flight to Japan is repeated on other flights, then it's likely that 1.5% of the population is infected. If we say the 11m population of Wuhan was reduced by 5 million for the new year holiday, then that's roughly 100000 cases. Set against the near term (declared) mortality numbers - (already losing momentum) at say 250, then that's a death rate of 0.0025%.

Which seems incredibly low. Would someone please check my maths / logic...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 31 Jan 2020, 08:18

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:It may be worthwhile tracking the number of cases confirmed on the various repatriation flights. These serving as random population samples. If the 3 confirmed from 206 on the first flight to Japan is repeated on other flights, then it's likely that 1.5% of the population is infected. If we say the 11m population of Wuhan was reduced by 5 million for the new year holiday, then that's roughly 100000 cases. Set against the near term (declared) mortality numbers - (already losing momentum) at say 250, then that's a death rate of 0.0025%.

Which seems incredibly low. Would someone please check my maths / logic...

That's a good point. However, there may be cultural differences in this sub population that make their exposure to the virus different and so not provide the basis for a valid comparison.

Also, I have just checked the latest numbers for Hubei, the epicenter of this virus. The mortality rate does not look to be losing momentum to me.

Latest figures:

5806 - infected

Which breaks down as:

213 - dead
187 - recovered
5406 - not yet determined

In percentage terms:

3.6% - dead
3.2% - recovered
93.1% - not yet determined

As ever, these numbers need adjusting based on the unknown number of people infected but not presented to the medical services

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:19

By saying the mortality is losing momentum - to explain - the earlier days were more than doubling, and although absolute numbers are rising - the doublings are taking longer.

From 21 Jan - WHO sitrep cumulative total -

3 6 17 25 41 56 80 106 132 170 and likely 230 today

Of course, it could be that deaths outside of hospital monitoring trasnlated into WHO data aren't being recorded. The fear culture of the hierarchy still in operation there.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:23

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:By saying the mortality is losing momentum - to explain - the earlier days were more than doubling, and although absolute numbers are rising - the doublings are taking longer.

From 21 Jan - WHO sitrep cumulative total -

3 6 17 25 41 56 80 106 132 170 and likely 230 today

Of course, it could be that deaths outside of hospital monitoring trasnlated into WHO data aren't being recorded. The fear culture of the hierarchy still in operation there.

Is it that the death rate, as a proportion of the infection rate, is losing momentum or that the infection rate, including concomitant deaths, is losing momentum?

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:29

From the Guardian rolling news -

Bangladesh is preparing a flight to repatriate more than 340 Bangladeshi citizens in Wuhan, the New Age reports.

According to the paper, a wide-body aircraft is to leave Dhaka for Wuhan on Friday evening, after Chinese authorities allotted it a slot to operate a special flight for Bangladeshis stuck in the locked-down city.

Zahid Maleque, the health minister, said on Thursday that Bangladesh was â€œfully preparedâ€� to tackle coronavirus, that all passengers arriving in the country from China were being screened, and that so far none had been detected with coronavirus.

An isolation unit has been prepared at Kurmitola General Hospital, Maleque said.

I don't read that as intending to place all 340 in quarantine. If the Japanese flight unwell percentage is repeated, but not detected, then that could move one or two untraceable individuals into a country which is very poorly resourced to cope with any outbreak.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:33

Little John wrote:Is it that the death rate, as a proportion of the infection rate, is losing momentum or that the infection rate, including concomitant deaths, is losing momentum?

No, as the infection rate is likely utter cobblers, I'm focusing on the 'official' death rate trend alone. For a while, you can see it was doubling inside two days, initially worse. It's no longer doing that. For whatever reason. Unreported deaths outside hospital, or control measures kicking in.

Post by **adam2** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:38

First two confirmed cases in the UK, according to various media reports.

Post by **clv101** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:39

England now has two cases.

Oh, and it's Brexit day!!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:47

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51325192

No more details are being released about their idenitity or where they are being treated.

...or where they live, or where they've been or who they caught it from.

This is bullshit. Presumably they are trying to limit panic by refusing to release information about where in the UK this has happened. As a result, people everywhere will behave as if it has happened in their own home town. Completely counter-productive.

Post by **adam2** » 31 Jan 2020, 09:56

My cynical suspicion is that the cases might be Chinese, hence the secrecy so as to avoid people having anti-Chinese thoughts.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 10:00

Probably this case -

https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/181982 ... ork-hotel/

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 31 Jan 2020, 10:02

adam2 wrote:My cynical suspicion is that the cases might be Chinese, hence the secrecy so as to avoid people having anti-Chinese thoughts.

You must learn this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DqvweTYTI0

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 31 Jan 2020, 10:02

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Probably this case -

https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/181982 ... ork-hotel/

Aye, straight to the f***ing hospital where our lass is at work right this minute