New coronavirus in/from China

[vtsnowedin]

Drugs for childhood diseases are life saving. those for senior citizens are life extending or quality of life improving but a rose by any other name will smell as sweet.
Perhaps after Brexit and this wake up call the US and UK can get together and produce all the really important drugs between them domestically, half on each side of the pond, and be sure of our supplies at a reasonable cost.
That is a lot to hope for I know but one can hope.

[leroy]

Life saving drug? I can guarantee these do not work. All the recipients will die in the end. From a scientist, I am disappointed in your lack of correct use of words. It is expect of the medical industry of course.

ACE Inhibitors, Beta Blockers, Anti Psychotics are, just off the top if my head, pretty lifesaving.. Not sure about us 'earning' coronavirus either - people can be immunocompromised or get diseases through sheer bad luck.

[fuzzy]

I think this disease has run long enough that we can start to see limiting values. Do people die faster than survivors are declared virus free? Divide one time by the other. Some real time stats are beginning to look very ugly:

In total 7,711 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus have been reported in China as of Jan 29, with 170 deaths and 124 recovered.

So 57% don't have to work anymore and 42% get back on the treadmill. That's marburg/rabies odds..Thats why they are nailing cities in.

OK so the sick will die first, so recovery rates could improve, but medicine will be a total bottleneck and will collapse fairly soon.

I think you should refresh your supplies today. Just sayin.

detailed real time news:

https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml

[edited my maths]

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

In total 7,711 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus have been reported in China as of Jan 29, with 170 deaths and 124 recovered.

So 57% don't have to work anymore and 42% get back on the treadmill. That's marburg/rabies odds..Thats why they are nailing cities in.

]

But your sample is limited to the serious cases that got admitted to hospital, and became an official statistic. Not the other possibly 90% of mild cases. We've assumed further back in the thread that it takes 7 days from admission to death. But the clinical course for recovery is probably a bit longer. And 'recovered' might be a bit hazy, as they will certainly be wanting that bed for a more serious case. Those 'recovered are largely going to be among the 282 confirmed cases as at 21 Jan, only 9 days.

The death rate curve appears to be reducing, going by the WHO sitreps.

3 6 17 25 41 56 80 106 132

It's no longer doubling or worse. That suggests to me that the control measure(lockdown) is beginning to work.

People with immunity become very useful for helping the overstretched hospitals, as we saw with the ebola outbreak.

[fuzzy]

Some confirmed stats here:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/N ... oronavirus

and some silent human transmission:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200130_37/

[fuzzy]

In total 7,711 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus have been reported in China as of Jan 29, with 170 deaths and 124 recovered.

So 57% don't have to work anymore and 42% get back on the treadmill. That's marburg/rabies odds..Thats why they are nailing cities in.

]

But your sample is limited to the serious cases that got admitted to hospital, and became an official statistic. Not the other possibly 90% of mild cases. We've assumed further back in the thread that it takes 7 days from admission to death. But the clinical course for recovery is probably a bit longer. And 'recovered' might be a bit hazy, as they will certainly be wanting that bed for a more serious case. Those 'recovered are largely going to be among the 282 confirmed cases as at 21 Jan, only 9 days.

The death rate curve appears to be reducing, going by the WHO sitreps.

3 6 17 25 41 56 80 106 132

It's no longer doubling or worse. That suggests to me that the control measure(lockdown) is beginning to work.

People with immunity become very useful for helping the overstretched hospitals, as we saw with the ebola outbreak.

My thoughts are based on the known conclusions of a or b. It has run long enough for both groups to be well populated. No doubt the mortality will be a different value. I agree they will be discharging recovered as quick as possible. If you consider an exponential growth in patients while medical resources are a 'constant' [soon to be diminishing in critical bottlenecks], that is still optimistic:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... -call-sick

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51276656

he world is quiet, and the silence is horrifying. I live alone, so I can only tell there are other human beings around from the occasional noises in the corridor.

I have a lot of time to think about how to survive. I don't have any resources or connections.

One of my goals is not to fall sick, so I have to make myself exercise. Food is crucial to survival too, so I have to know whether there is enough supply.

The government hasn't said how long the lockdown will last, nor how we can carry on functioning. People are saying it might last until May.

It is amazing how the unthinkable becomes real. Having locked down Wuhan, it is very hard to see how the Chinese authorities can unlock it unless the infection is under control, and that could take months. The economic damage is unimaginable. In fact, the whole thing is unimaginable. We are talking about a city of 11 million people being sealed off from the outside world for 4 months. Nobody in, nobody out. And it is highly likely that something similar is going to happen in other Chinese cities. Are these all going to be locked down for several months too? I am struggling to believe this can happen. It is the economic equivalent of a nuclear war.

[adam2]

My concerns include the consequences of this virus spreading to places with little rule of law and almost no health services.
Parts of the Middle east and Africa come to mind.
In some places, a death from this virus might not even be noticed amid a high death rate from poverty, war, and "normal" illness, nor would there be any monitoring of potential contacts of the victim.

Infected persons could then reach Europe via the usual illegal migration routes.
There are no health checks on those arriving in small boats on the coasts of southern Europe, nor on the same people later hiding in trucks bound for the UK.

[PS_RalphW]

Hotel in York onlockdown after Chinese national taken to hospital

[Little John]

My wife lives in York from Monday to Friday at her sisters cos she is a health care assistant at York hospital and this fellah has been taken to the hospital.

f***ing twatting hell.

[clv101]

My wife lives in York from Monday to Friday at her sisters cos she is a health care assistant at York hospital and this fellah has been taken to the hospital.

f***ing twatting hell.

Wow, shit just got real! Good luck.

[clv101]

The economic damage is unimaginable. In fact, the whole thing is unimaginable. We are talking about a city of 11 million people being sealed off from the outside world for 4 months. Nobody in, nobody out. And it is highly likely that something similar is going to happen in other Chinese cities. Are these all going to be locked down for several months too? I am struggling to believe this can happen. It is the economic equivalent of a nuclear war.

Yes, there is an argument that the damage associated with attempted containment panic/fear is actually greater than the damage of the virus spreading unchecked. We could be looking at both a global pandemic and a financial disaster triggered by China.

[UndercoverElephant]

My wife lives in York from Monday to Friday at her sisters cos she is a health care assistant at York hospital and this fellah has been taken to the hospital.

Completely unrelated fact: I went to that hospital - to the A&E department - on the morning it opened in 1977, when I was 9. I had shut my thumb in the hinge of one of the old slam-door train doors while travelling to visit family friends in York, and I had to get a hole drilled in the nail. The whole thing was sparkling brand new, and almost deserted.

[Little John]

My wife lives in York from Monday to Friday at her sisters cos she is a health care assistant at York hospital and this fellah has been taken to the hospital.

Completely unrelated fact: I went to that hospital - to the A&E department - on the morning it opened in 1977, when I was 9. I had shut my thumb in the hinge of one of the old slam-door train doors while travelling to visit family friends in York, and I had to get a hole drilled in the nail. The whole thing was sparkling brand new, and almost deserted.

it's absolutely overrun nowadays.

[Little John]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTFYjva ... VChDJ9McQs

Italian ship on lockdown

Either this is all massive overreaction or there is shit they are not telling us about this virus. Either in terms of the death rate or in terms of how f***ed you are left if you don't die from it.