New coronavirus in/from China

[Potemkin Villager]

Considering the comfort blanket of total surveillance supposedly covering GB it seems very strange how a few thousand folk who flew in from the infected area before the balloon went up still seem unaccounted for. Has big brother been asleep on the job?

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Bravo, Wiley.

From the Guardian rolling news page -

The academic pubilsher Wiley has compiled 54 research articles relating to the coronavirus, listed them on a single page, and has made them free to read for the next few months, as the world battles to contain the outbreak.

Here is Wiley’s announcement:

Wiley has identified 54 articles related to the coronavirus and is providing free access to this research to support outbreak relief efforts in China and other countries. These important pieces of literature will remain free until April 2020, with the window of time extended as needed. Newly published articles related to coronavirus will immediately be free to access during this time period, and will be posted to the coronavirus research page.

Access to 54 medical and scientific articles includes research from the Journal of Medical Virology, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, Zoonoses and Public Health and many more.

https://secure.wiley.com/Coronavirus2020

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Considering the comfort blanket of total surveillance supposedly covering GB it seems very strange how a few thousand folk who flew in from the infected area before the balloon went up still seem unaccounted for. Has big brother been asleep on the job?

Only tracking the dodgy ones who are XR members.

[clv101]

Taiwan too now has their first domestic case. I think it changed gear today. It's not just China and those travelling from China anymore.

[adam2]

Does anybody else here think it's a batshit crazy notion to repatriate people worldwide from the epicentre? And hope that they self-quarantine - and their immediate families too?

Yes.
It could be done safely, but I have no faith in TPTB taking proper precautions.

Firstly I have faith whatsoever in the repatriated people actually effectively self isolating them selves.
"I had to see my baby"
"It does not apply to me as I am so healthy"
"I had to nip to the shops for fags/booze/microchips/lotto tickets"
"I have not been convicted of any crime, so should not be imprisoned"
"Against my human rights"

And so on.

Secondly I have no faith in any repatriation flights actually being confined to UK citizens.
"racist"
"segregation"
"prosecute the officials for discrimination"

Non UK citizens who had a good reason to visit the UK would have to be admitted no doubt.
"I have paid thousands for a university course, they have got to let me complete it"
"I have got to see my family"
"I think that my family are in the UK"
"really I am a UK citizen but I have lost my documents"

It would in practice be a free for all and open to anyone wanting to escape from China who could purchase whatever proof was needed.

If I was in charge, I would hire or requisition a holiday camp or similar that has self contained chalets or caravans, NOT a hotel with shared common areas.
I would require that persons repatriated to the UK should spend at least two weeks isolated in such accommodation.

Supplies of food and other essentials could be easily delivered to the doorstep of such facilities by staff wearing protective equipment.
I would provide unlimited internet, cable TV and phone calls to whose in isolation.
No visitors apart from essential staff or healthcare workers.

[mikepepler]

Taiwan too now has their first domestic case. I think it changed gear today. It's not just China and those travelling from China anymore.

So with that on top of Germany and Japan, shouldn't the WHO be declaring a global emergency soon? I thought transmission in multiple countries was the prerequisite for that?

[woodburner]

Global emergency for how many deaths? There are bigger things to worry about.

Getting things in perspective might be an idea.

[clv101]

Taiwan too now has their first domestic case. I think it changed gear today. It's not just China and those travelling from China anymore.

So with that on top of Germany and Japan, shouldn't the WHO be declaring a global emergency soon? I thought transmission in multiple countries was the prerequisite for that?

Yes, I expect the Global Public Heath Emergency to be declared within 48 hours now.

[mikepepler]

Global emergency for how many deaths? There are bigger things to worry about.

Getting things in perspective might be an idea.

True, I'm just saying that their reason for not declaring an emergency yet was that there was only transmission in China.

[UndercoverElephant]

First person-to-person case outside China. Japanese bus driver has tested positive.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

we just need more data

Absolutely...

Wiki Sez...

Concerns of underreporting
There are concerns on whether adequate medical personnel and equipment are available in regions affected by the outbreak for hospitals to correctly identify coronavirus cases instead of mis-diagnosing suspected cases as "severe pneumonia". Many of those experiencing symptoms may decide to self-quarantine at home instead of going to a hospital due to long wait-times and cramped conditions.

Estimates
Based on cases reported and assuming a 10-day delay between infection and detection, researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimated that the number of actual infections may be 10 times higher than those confirmed at the time of reporting. Imperial College estimated 4,000 cases with 440 confirmed by 21 January 2020, Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections by 26 January, increasing to 26,200 infections by 27 January (with a confidence of 95% within the interval 19,200-34,800).

[/quote]

So 80 deaths as of 27 Jan resulting from the suspected 4000 infected a week ago gives a death rate of 2% - if the decline is typically that rapid.

[mikepepler]

we just need more data

Absolutely...

Wiki Sez...

Concerns of underreporting
There are concerns on whether adequate medical personnel and equipment are available in regions affected by the outbreak for hospitals to correctly identify coronavirus cases instead of mis-diagnosing suspected cases as "severe pneumonia". Many of those experiencing symptoms may decide to self-quarantine at home instead of going to a hospital due to long wait-times and cramped conditions.

Estimates
Based on cases reported and assuming a 10-day delay between infection and detection, researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimated that the number of actual infections may be 10 times higher than those confirmed at the time of reporting. Imperial College estimated 4,000 cases with 440 confirmed by 21 January 2020, Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections by 26 January, increasing to 26,200 infections by 27 January (with a confidence of 95% within the interval 19,200-34,800).

So 80 deaths as of 27 Jan resulting from the suspected 4000 infected a week ago gives a death rate of 2% - if the decline is typically that rapid.[/quote]This report indicates a significant lack of capacity in China:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... break-much

"The corpse of Chen Min was wrapped in a yellow body bag with tape when it was delivered to the funeral home by workers in hazmat suits. The staff disinfected the van they travelled in and disposed of protective gear.

Despite being pressured into a quick cremation by authorities, the grieving family did not know if the 65-year-old had died from the novel coronavirus sweeping China. And they still don't."

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Also from the same Wiki page on nCoV, there are welcome signs of a new open culture in Chinese politics. But there's still room for a little improvement, as far as punishments go.

One day later, the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, the most powerful political organ in China overseeing legal enforcements and the police, wrote "self-deception will only make the epidemic worse and turn a natural disaster that was controllable into a man-made disaster at great cost," and "only openness can minimise panic to the greatest extent." The commission then added, "anyone who deliberately delays and hides the reporting of cases out of self-interest will be nailed on a pillar of shame for eternity."

[Little John]

Interesting info from the Lancet

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 9/fulltext

[Little John]

And this:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-ne ... ts/5701662