New coronavirus in/from China

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Jan 2020, 11:27

People will get the opportunity to check out how long their preparations will actually let them stay at home without contacting anyone outside their home. What do you run out of first and how do you get more without risking exposure. Have FedX leave it on the walk and spray the box down with disinfectant?
Most working age adults will still have to go to work but I can see most schools closing and the children being taught on line or by a parent. In the retirement communities I can see golf foursome becoming a singles game with fifty feet between players the accepted polite distance.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 28 Jan 2020, 11:38

vtsnowedin wrote: What do you run out of first and how do you get more without risking exposure. Have FedX leave it on the walk and spray the box down with disinfectant?

Yes, especially if it comes from China. Assuming the FedX guy is well enoiugh to deliver it - and hasn't got kids..

vtsnowedin wrote: Most working age adults will still have to go to work but I can see most schools closing and the children being taught on line or by a parent. In the retirement communities I can see golf foursome becoming a singles game with fifty feet between players the accepted polite distance.

That's a big workforce absence due to childcare problem, unless all children are pressganged into becoming caddies for their retired grandparents. Handling the infected golf balls, recently delivered from China.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jan 2020, 11:42

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Does anybody else here think it's a batshit crazy notion to repatriate people worldwide from the epicentre? And hope that they self-quarantine - and their immediate families too?

Yes! At the very least I'd expect the government to rent a Travel Lodge for a few weeks and put everyone up there for monitoring.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 28 Jan 2020, 11:51

clv101 wrote:
Yes! At the very least I'd expect the government to rent a Travel Lodge for a few weeks and put everyone up there for monitoring.

The Directors of Premier Inn would be strongly in favour of that.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:03

The new German case (edit, make that two cases) is interesting. Chinese person flew to Germany, delivered a training course then flew home. Then the German man (men?) became infected, and once back in China, the Chinese person was confirmed.

Proves human to human transmission, including from a person sill healthy enough to travel and work (asymptomatic). Also, if someone in a training course can become infected - surely the folk sitting near on the plane home will also be.

Japan has also reported a local case.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:21

https://twitter.com/avatorl/status/1222 ... 96128?s=09

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:36

Given we now know the asymptomatic gestation period is 14 days and assuming once symptoms have shown it will take, for argument's sake, around another 7 days to die, the number of deaths reported right now, will be related to the number of confirmed cases from three weeks ago. Therefore, we need to know the following information:

1) The number of confirmed cases of infection from a date around 3 weeks in the past.

2) The number of deaths reported right now

Obviously, this assumes the number of deaths reported right now will be related to the number of confirmed cases from three weeks ago. However, that assumption may need to be adjusted based on new information coming in on how long it takes to die following the showing of symptoms. But, it will be no less than 2 weeks from infection to death (due to gestation period) and probably not more than three weeks.

Obviously, there is not enough data in yet. But, worst case scenario, the number of deaths currently standing at around 100 could be based on the infection count from 3 weeks ago.

Which would be... erm.... apocalyptic....

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:46

Little John wrote:
The number of deaths reported right now, will be related to the number of confirmed cases from three weeks ago.

Not confirmed but actual cases, which is unknown. People are infectious long before hospitalisation, - which itself depends on symptoms severe enough to be admitted, then testing (if kit available) and only then being officially confirmed. Which makes it slightly better from a mortality percentage viewpoint.

Post by **mikepepler** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:48

clv101 wrote:
Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Does anybody else here think it's a batshit crazy notion to repatriate people worldwide from the epicentre? And hope that they self-quarantine - and their immediate families too?
Yes! At the very least I'd expect the government to rent a Travel Lodge for a few weeks and put everyone up there for monitoring.

But surely anyone working there would also be at risk, and have to say there 24/7 too?

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Jan 2020, 12:53

There are now two suspected cases in quarantine in hospital sixty miles from my home. So much for being a long way from China.

Post by **mikepepler** » 28 Jan 2020, 13:13

Info here on quarantine plans: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... uhan-amid/

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 28 Jan 2020, 13:16

[quote="Little John"]Given we now know the asymptomatic gestation period is 14 days /quote]

Chinaâ€™s Health Commission says that the main transmission is through â€œrespiratory dropletsâ€� (coughing) and then touch.
Incubation is generally 3-7 days, maximum 14 days, the commission says

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jan 2020, 13:19

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:
Little John wrote:Given we now know the asymptomatic gestation period is 14 days /quote]

Chinaâ€™s Health Commission says that the main transmission is through â€œrespiratory dropletsâ€� (coughing) and then touch.
Incubation is generally 3-7 days, maximum 14 days, the commission says
ah okay. So that improve things significantly. So, based on an average gestation of, say 7 days plus assumed time to die of, say, 7 days following showing of symptoms. That puts deaths on any given date based on recorded cases from two week previous.

Based on the very incomplete data already in, that would put it at around 20% mortality. Which is Spanish Flu territory.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 28 Jan 2020, 13:27

Again... not recorded but actual infections, (hopefully) most undetected. . Recorded is just the tip of the rapidly growing iceberg. So it's a long way off from 20% mortality from all infections.

Going by the WHO sitrep numbers -
Recorded on 21 Jan - 282
Deaths by 27 Jan - 80 giving anyone unlucky enough to become an official statistic a 26% probability of death. But if there were say nine times more infected but coping, then the mortality rate is something like 2.5%.

Which is still Spanish Flu territory.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jan 2020, 13:44

we just need more data