Sticking that in Excel gives the exponential function: y=33.1e^0.4094x
Taking us to 23,000 cases by Fri 31st. Seems unlikely?
I have seen a number of similar calculations, with different underlying mathematics. They are all heading in the same direction. But this is surely misleading, because the numbers so far relate to how the virus spreads when most people weren't making that much effort to avoid catching it.
I think the question is not so much whether it continues to grow exponentially, but whether it continues to grow at all. Either the measures the Chinese authorities are now taking will be enough to put some sort of lid on it, or they aren't. If they aren't then this is going to be a global pandemic.
We personally can't do anything to change its virulence, we can't do anything about how deadly it is and we can't do anything about how well or badly it is contained by the authorities. So, the only things I am interested in how bad it is and how virulent it is. On that basis, I will know what, if anything, I can do personally to mitigate my chances of getting it or, indeed, if there is any need to be especially concerned about getting it.
A question I have not seen discussed as of yet? There are reports that some of the victims were healthy young adults. How many of these were smokers? Could that be the difference between living and dying?
vtsnowedin wrote:A question I have not seen discussed as of yet? There are reports that some of the victims were healthy young adults. How many of these were smokers? Could that be the difference between living and dying?
It would certainly be a risk factor, as smoking accelerates the natural loss of lung capacity, and already kills half its participants. If you've already got severe COPD, a common cold can kill. That risk increases over time.
UndercoverElephant wrote:
I think the question is not so much whether it continues to grow exponentially, but whether it continues to grow at all. Either the measures the Chinese authorities are now taking will be enough to put some sort of lid on it, or they aren't. If they aren't then this is going to be a global pandemic.
Exactly. We may see it tail off in areas subject to strict control measures as the virus finds fewer hosts. But already there are cases overseas. The Australian Govt claimed without evidence that there's been no human to human transmission with a case of a student recently arrived in Sydney. Who went from the airport after hours sat crammed on a plane, who then made her way to her flat. Presumably on public transport. She'll be right, no worries mate.
The only way to beat this is to stop movement before it arrives, or hunker down as much as possible once near. That decision is easier for authoritarian Govts to directly order, and some lucky individuals like me, with the freedom to plan and act for themselves. I don't imagine HM Govt banning public gatherings / transport until it's way too late and people are already doing that to the point where the reduced gathering doesn't generate enough revenue. Because preserving the economy is more important than proactive management of this, when only a few cases are visible. They can't see the spread of the disease.
I agree with VT about the smoking factor - Chinese are heavy smokers.
I would say go through the preps anyway. Surgical/painters masks might do little, but if you are going to get ncov, you need to cut down other infections as your body is busy. You need supplies already so you are not fighting at an empty store. You need to wear a mask if every airhead is doing it - to be invisible. The risk in a breakdown is theft, property damage and violent confrontation. It doesn't matter how gung-ho you are, a stab wound is not clever when medicine has gone. Being rural we are surrounded by farm shops. Get some sheep farmers iodine liquid as a last resort.
vtsnowedin wrote:A question I have not seen discussed as of yet? There are reports that some of the victims were healthy young adults. How many of these were smokers? Could that be the difference between living and dying?
Very few were under the age of 50. And it is not clear whether smoking makes people more vulnerable - there are competing claims, and not enough evidence.
adam2 wrote:Reported death toll now at over 100, with confirmed cases at over 4,500, according to BBC news.
The 4545 number for the 27th is EXACTLY on the exponential trend line. Spooky.
Could it be they are just reporting the exponential trend line for lack of better evidence. ?? It gets people and governments taking action so would serve a purpose higher then dithering around waiting for exact figures.
If this breaks out globally, then all sorts of businesses will fail. Starting with anything reliant on discretionary gatherings of people. Airlines, public transport, the high street. For essentials, there will be more online ordering and concentrated bulk shopping rather than regular top-ups. Routine healthcare appointments - check-ups and monitoring - doctors and dentists, will stop. Vital production and supply chains will be impacted by staff shortages from caring or other absenteeism.
Unemployment and recession to follow, with tax take down at the same time the health service needs extra billions. Unrest and civil contingencies act invoked, with only limited military assistance available - the MOD contracted out medical services a long time back, and the Forces themselves are a fraction of the size they were even recently.
Yet at the same time, organisations would do well to strongly discourage presenteeism, especially in it's worst form - the idiot gung-ho Mucus Trooper Manager who still turns up when unwell. Non-immediate staff should be stood down or work from home where possible. In advance of the pandemic arrival. Can't see that happening.
Hard times for everyone if it's the real thing. We ain't ready, it'll be mismanaged from day 1 and that will continue. Beans, must buy loads of beans. And custard.
"Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". Douglas Bader.
eatyourveg wrote:Hard times for everyone if it's the real thing. We ain't ready, it'll be mismanaged from day 1 and that will continue. Beans, must buy loads of beans. And custard.
Why, got me two shrink-wrapped packs of 4 tins of beans from Aldi yesterday.
Blinking Flip! I clean forgot about the custard. Gonna need that for the Custard Last Stand.
Does anybody else here think it's a batshit crazy notion to repatriate people worldwide from the epicentre? And hope that they self-quarantine - and their immediate families too?
