New coronavirus in/from China

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Jan 2020, 16:33

What with this virus and the Philippine volcano threatening to pop its cork we could be in for an interesting spring/summer/winter.

We've got a big fallen beech tree that we are cutting up at the moment togther with a standing dead one that it has knocked into an adjoining tree and will need to be pulled down so we should be OK for fuel next winter. Just got to make sure that the polytunnels and garden are filled with veggies and we will be OK for food stocks as well.

I've also got a couple of beef animals which we could home kill if necessary. If I killed one of those at the end of the summer we would have plenty of tallow for candles as well. Just got to time the diesel delivery for the genny right and we wouldn't even need the candles.

As the Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times!"

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 26 Jan 2020, 18:13

If this is like measles, a cough or sneeze will disperse droplets into the air.

Those droplets hang around so if you walk through them TWO HOURS LATER you have a 90% chance of becoming infected.

You might need more than a 50p mask to protect yourself!

Post by **clv101** » 26 Jan 2020, 19:10

Official advice to NHS:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... imary-care

Amounts to "If you think you have a case, slowly back out of the room, close the door, telephone the patient and ask them not to touch anything."

NHS doesn't even seem prepared for winter, that can be predicted to happen yearly. There are no beds/nurses/rooms anyway since the NHS is on its knees in this pretty average winter.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 26 Jan 2020, 19:15

I am pretty sure that the NHS will collapse from a million people with a a cold or the flu attending AandE two days after the first human to human transmission case in the UK.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 26 Jan 2020, 20:57

'An unwell patient with a relevant travel history should be identified when they book in at reception'

Notice how the NHS doesn't give a toss for the little people. How many receptionists will still be at their desk??

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 27 Jan 2020, 00:18

Whilst the death rate from this virus currently seems low, its ease of transmission is very high and resistant to most control measures. It seems increasing a matter of when, not if, everybody on the planet is exposed to it. This makes me increasing concerned for my wife, who is precisely the demographic most likely to die of the infection. I have started sneezing today. Three days ago I was on a public bus in Cambridge. The local paper reports that there are Chinese students in town just returned a few days ago from the affected area of China.
There is a small but finite probability that I am already infected.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Jan 2020, 06:14

Death toll now reported as "over 80" various media state.
Persons infected at about 3,000.
Chinese year holiday extended by a few days to postpone the great post holiday return home.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Jan 2020, 08:19

PS_RalphW wrote:Whilst the death rate from this virus currently seems low, its ease of transmission is very high and resistant to most control measures. It seems increasing a matter of when, not if, everybody on the planet is exposed to it. This makes me increasing concerned for my wife, who is precisely the demographic most likely to die of the infection. I have started sneezing today. Three days ago I was on a public bus in Cambridge. The local paper reports that there are Chinese students in town just returned a few days ago from the affected area of China.
There is a small but finite probability that I am already infected.

The problem is nobody knows what the probabilities involved actually are. We don't have enough information. We don't, for example, know how quickly this particular virus mutates. We could be only one mutation away from something which is just as easily transmitted, but significantly more deadly.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Jan 2020, 08:21

adam2 wrote: Chinese year holiday extended by a few days to postpone the great post holiday return home.

Can't help wondering whether this might actually make the problem worse. A bunch of people newly infected over the holiday will now have three extra days for their personal virus load to multiply before they go home.

Post by **clv101** » 27 Jan 2020, 08:59

adam2 wrote:Death toll now reported as "over 80" various media state.
Persons infected at about 3,000.
Chinese year holiday extended by a few days to postpone the great post holiday return home.

It's worth pointing out we can't divide 80 by 3000 to give ~3%. The deaths are delayed, so are related to the (far lower) case count a week or so ago. Of the people sick enough to present at hospital to be tested, the mortality rate is probably closer to 10%.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Jan 2020, 10:19

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... toms-show/

There is often the question of whether individuals who may be infected with the virus but never show any symptoms (asymptomatic or subclinical cases) may also be contagious to others. The report from Zhejiang suggests this may be the case, but further confirmation is required.

If true, this virus is absolutely unstoppable.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 27 Jan 2020, 17:53

Hi All

I have returned... Now that we live in 'Interesting Times'...

Among several other things today, got two large bottles of antibacterial spray, and much to my surprise, B&Q still had latex gloves and builder's masks aplenty. Perhaps those will help when it gets here. Certainly for preventing surface fomite to hand to mouth infection. Airborne viruses, less so ..

Existing Hard Brexit stockpiles replenished for battening down - or in case of supply disruption / panic buying induced shortages. Also got a digital thermometer from Boots to self monitor if needs be.

The weak point if it gets nasty will be needing to go to the pharmacists. Full of nasties. Opening door handle with kleenex, straight into dog poop bag, tied up and binned. Signing for meds using own clipboard and pen, and not touching any surfaces.

It might help if HM Govt banned social gatherings sooner rather than later. But banning footy and pubs would be most unpopular, but not as much as a dieoff.

cheers!

MMM

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 27 Jan 2020, 18:47

There is a link to a disinfectant table in this thread. It shows that alcohol is good for this sort of enveloped virus. So you could order one of those deliveries of ethanol from eby It's about Â£2 a litre in bulk and lasts forever, so make your own handwash : alcohol/washing up liquid/2 parts water. You could spray meths where bleach causes damage.

Everyone see this from Hong Kong?

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... 200127.htm

Post by **clv101** » 27 Jan 2020, 19:10

I wonder how realistic it is to try and avoid getting infected, is it better to be infected sooner (while there might still be some health care available) rather than latter? If you manage not to get it in the first wave, aren't you just going to get in a year or two later - as it'll still be around and you'll not have any immunity?

One thing about the official cases / deaths / recovered numbers, is how low the 'recovered' total is.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 27 Jan 2020, 19:23

So the HK epidemiologist suggests it's doubling every six days. While he's discussing a wider unmonitored population so I'm wondering how he arrives at that - perhaps it's worth noting that the daily WHO sitreps indicate a current doubling of both confirmed cases and fatalities inside two days.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... on-reports

I'm tracking these official numbers to get a sense of the growth trend. The more reliable trend would be the death rate, as this is always officially recorded. At least for now. Sure, the WHO are about 24 hours behind the latest reports, but it's the doubling rate that's so alarming. In time, and if the control measures work, (or if the population is either dead or immune), then it will tail off as it runs out of hosts.

Over half the world population (4 billion) is only 32 doublings. Recalling Prof Albert Bartlett's maxim that too few people properly understand the exponential function...

MMM