$70 Oil Competition #2? What's your guess?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 26 Feb 2007, 14:53

OK I will open the bidding.

I will assume that KSA is lying and that they are in deep decline.
US Oil and petrolium stocks are drawing down 10M barrels a week at present.
More and more major oil developments are reporting major delays.
US Economy will defy gravity for a few more months... (I'm an optimist!)
Forecast world demand is to hit 87 - 88 M barrels a day in peak summer.
We are unlikely to be so lucky again with the hurricane season.

21st June - (my birthday).

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 26 Feb 2007, 15:15

1st May - Mayday.

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 26 Feb 2007, 18:16

Oct 18th - a wild guess

Post by **clv101** » 26 Feb 2007, 23:37

$70m 7th September.

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 01 Mar 2007, 13:17

After the relative calm of the last few months...

The Oil price seems to be bouncing around again.

$63.36 / Barrel

http://www.oil-price.net/

might get to $70 sooner than I anticipated...

Miss Madam · Post by **Miss Madam** » 02 Mar 2007, 13:26

$70 on 10th August. A wild guess and to be honest I'm trying to be optimistic....

I'm thinking hurricane threat* combined with hot and now increasingly air conditioned summer on the back of El Nino, and driving season, combined with the last dog day and a Friday (so everyone'll be getting a little narky with countless minds wandering off to beer gardens and festivals and thwarted by being too hot and stuck in an office, and a little pissed off as a result)....

Ok I never claimed to be logical!

Although I have an awful feeling that Israel might do something rash in June, rash being of course a huge euphemism for murder people living in one of the states in its vicinity, and my money is on Iran...

Cat

*Hurricane data from http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/dec2006/

"We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2007. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall."

They're reckoning on 14 named storms (with 9 being the 50 year rolling average) and on the following odds (mind you forecasters were wrong about last year, but they hadn't spotted El Nino brewing and that's mostly over now)

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 02 Mar 2007, 16:32

$70 at 3rd April.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 02 Mar 2007, 17:05

SunnyJim wrote:$70 at 3rd April.

Aha! You've beaten my 'May 1st' bid . . . I was thinking today I should have waited a bit longer before bidding!

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 02 Mar 2007, 19:37

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/marke ... &cm_ite=NA

Crude Oil Futures Falter By Chuck Marvin
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter - 2/2/2007 - 6:47 PM GMT

Energy futures were moving slightly lower Friday as traders took profits at the end of a weeklong run-up in commodity prices.

Around 1 p.m. EST, crude oil was slipping 31 cents to $61.69 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Reformulated gasoline was down a penny to $1.90 a gallon, and heating oil was fractionally lower at $1.77 a gallon.

The near-term natural gas contract was down 2 cents at $7.27 per million British thermal units.

Crude oil is now trading nearly 1% higher than where it opened at the beginning of the week. Some analysts say that prices have been pushed upward by the rising price of gasoline, which has jumped 9% from its Monday opening price at the Nymex.

According to a report by Barclays Capital, analysts see $62.50 as a key upside level for crude oil, after which crude futures could build momentum toward $65.50.

Gasoline inventories have fallen for three weeks in a row, pushing RBOB gasoline prices steadily higher. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 3.6% above the same period last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Additionally, gasoline prices are up because traders are seeking guidance from market activity in previous years, according to Jim Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics in London, Ark................

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 02 Mar 2007, 21:25

22 Mar 2007.

Note: I'm NEVER accused of being "to early" when it comes (!) to the really important stuff in life. But I use to be 2-5 years to early when it comes to economic and cultural stuff.

22 Mar 2009 then. Do you take hedged bets here?

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 02 Mar 2007, 21:33

Okay just because the numbers are pretty...

$70 on the 7th of the 7th - 07

....... Well it seems a good a guess as any?
(Or do oil prices do something traditional in July?)

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 05 Mar 2007, 11:10

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/04/ ... /bxcom.php

Bloomberg News - 05/03/07 - 09.05 GMT

Commodities: Lehman predicts costlier oil

LONDON: Crude oil will average $60 a barrel in the first quarter of this year and is poised to rise through 2008 on higher demand in the U.S. and China, Lehman Brothers Holdings said.

World oil consumption will rise by at least 1.7 million barrels a day this year, led by China, according to Edward Morse, the chief energy economist for Lehman in New York. Signs of an economic slowdown in the United States have not trimmed "robust" use of fuel, he said Saturday.

The U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual pace of 2.2 percent last quarter, compared with 3.5 percent reported Jan. 31, the government said last week. Thirst for gasoline in the United States, which typically grows 1.5 percent to 2 percent a year, has not been slaked. From a year earlier, motorists used 3.6 percent more fuel in the four weeks to Feb. 23, according to the Energy Department.

Gasoline consumption in the United States "is growing at a level that is totally inconsistent with the GDP numbers," Morse said.

The Chinese share of global oil consumption has risen from 3.5 percent in 1990 to about 8.2 percent in 2006, said William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Missouri. Economic growth in China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, after the United States, has averaged 10 percent a year for five years.

U.S. crude oil use is one million barrels a day higher than a year ago, Morse estimated. U.S. demand will rise about 300,000 barrels a day this year, Lehman analysts led by Morse wrote in a Feb. 23 report. The figure is "the minimum in U.S. demand" if current trends continue, he said.

U.S. gasoline supplies fell for a third time last week, even as output rose for the first time in nine weeks, the Department of Energy said last week. Daily usage averaged 9.1 million barrels. The United States consumes 25 percent of the oil used worldwide.

"People are driving in part because the winter was a lot milder in the early part of January," Morse said.

"Robust gasoline demand in the last four weeks," during colder weather, shows that "people have gotten back to their normal habits," he said.

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 02 Apr 2007, 21:18

Time to bump this up perhaps??? Sunny Jim your date looms!

Tracy P · Post by **Tracy P** » 02 Apr 2007, 21:37

I have no idea, but I want to join in!

18 Nov.

Do we get to win $70 if we are right? or a barrel of oil?

Tracy

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 03 Apr 2007, 00:07

Do we get to win $70 if we are right? or a barrel of oil?

I'd go for the barrel of oil, Tracy. It'll be worth a lot more than the dollars, even in the short term.

I like Sally's idea, it's as good a guess as any. And probably as logical!!