New coronavirus in/from China

[adam2]

This looks rather topical, and makes cheerful viewing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAyjkaFYnzE

[Vortex2]

This looks rather topical, and makes cheerful viewing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAyjkaFYnzE

Whoa .. time to get in a survival kit ...

[Vortex2]

This looks rather topical, and makes cheerful viewing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAyjkaFYnzE

Just remembered ... that endless story line about Abbey trying to find her lost son in a ravaged Britain ... tedious ...

[clv101]

Just watched the press conference from Canada, announcing their first case. It was interesting, impressive amount of openness and providing extra information (beyond their prepared statements) to questions. A guy in his 50s, arrived in Toronto on 22nd, in hospital on the 23rd after his partner called health services. She's asymptomatic. Regards the flight, they said they only trace people sitting within three rows.

One Dr pegged the fatality rate at 10%, of those requiring in patient hospital treatment, however many more people will have contracted the virus without becoming very ill, or even realising anything worse than a regular cold.

[adam2]

Just heard a caller from HK suggesting an 80% chance of a military virus escape from a lab a few miles from that market.

Could explain the heavy Chinese reaction ... they KNOW what's afoot.

Also I heard the mortality rate is around 15%.

Probably all cobblers ...

I do not normally believe conspiracy theories, but I will admit to considering this one as being possibly true.
If the Chinese authorities know what actually happened, that would indeed explain the prompt and large scale reaction.

[UndercoverElephant]

One Dr pegged the fatality rate at 10%, of those requiring in patient hospital treatment, however many more people will have contracted the virus without becoming very ill, or even realising anything worse than a regular cold.

This virus appears to be taking out mainly the elderly and immunocompromised. It's not like some flu strains which take out healthy people because the cause of death is an over-reacting immune system. Only a handful of under 60s have died, half the fatalities are over 70.

That could still add up to a lot of deaths globally compared to anything that has happened since Spanish Flu.

[PS_RalphW]

Even 50 million deaths a year would not stop global population growth, and most of the deaths would be of people past reproduction age. It would help alleviate china's demographic time bomb

[vtsnowedin]

Even 50 million deaths a year would not stop global population growth, and most of the deaths would be of people past reproduction age. It would help alleviate china's demographic time bomb

I think you math is off there. The birth rate in China is 12 per 1000 people and the death rate is 7/1000. If just one half of one percent of their population (5/1000) falls victim to this disease there population growth would cease. A rate of infection and loss of three percent of the population 30/1000 would yield a net loss of 18,000,000 in a year.
There are three unknowns here . One how many will eventually get infected in China and world wide. Two, what the actual survival rate will be and three, how long will it take for this to run it's course and decline?.
Hopefully this is something you only get once and it is over in a year or less.

[adam2]

Latest reports suggest that the virus can be spread by those who are not yet showing symptoms.
If true this will make control a greater challenge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51254523

[clv101]

Latest reports suggest that the virus can be spread by those who are not yet showing symptoms.
If true this will make control a greater challenge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51254523

This makes the Canada case interesting as the chap was on the plane the day before he was sick enough to be hospitalised. He must have been shedding whilst flying, how contagious is it?

[UndercoverElephant]

Latest reports suggest that the virus can be spread by those who are not yet showing symptoms.
If true this will make control a greater challenge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51254523

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn ... g-stronger

SHANGHAI — The ability of the coronavirus to spread is getting stronger and infections could continue to rise, China’s National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people globally infected and 56 in China killed by the disease.

National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei, speaking at a press briefing, said knowledge of the virus was limited.

Ma said the incubation period for the coronavirus can range from one to 14 days, and that the virus is infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.

If this is true, then we have an explanation for the apparent over-reaction by the Chinese authorities. It means the virus is pretty much unstoppable.

[UndercoverElephant]

Now being reported that in Jiangsu province, all work cancelled until 8th of Feb. That is 80 million people. This could shut down the entire Chinese economy.

[eatyourveg]

Now being reported that in Jiangsu province, all work cancelled until 8th of Feb. That is 80 million people. This could shut down the entire Chinese economy.

Assuming it doesn't take real hold much outside China, then it'll be interesting to see how the world manages to get by without a continual flow of Chinese manufactured products. Mr Trump may find this interesting, certainly consequences which isn't something he seems to pay much heed to.

[raspberry-blower]

Even 50 million deaths a year would not stop global population growth, and most of the deaths would be of people past reproduction age. It would help alleviate china's demographic time bomb

I think you math is off there. The birth rate in China is 12 per 1000 people and the death rate is 7/1000. If just one half of one percent of their population (5/1000) falls victim to this disease there population growth would cease. A rate of infection and loss of three percent of the population 30/1000 would yield a net loss of 18,000,000 in a year.
There are three unknowns here . One how many will eventually get infected in China and world wide. Two, what the actual survival rate will be and three, how long will it take for this to run it's course and decline?.
Hopefully this is something you only get once and it is over in a year or less.

Chinese mortality rates are also creeping upwards as well - I have heard that it was closer to 7.3/1000 for 2019.
VT, with respect, you are talking at cross purposes with PS Ralph. You are discussing the population of PRC whereas Ralph is discussing the human population of the world. The main engine of human population growth is the MENA region - the SE Asian region population looks a lot closer to its peak.
BTW the demographic figures you have quoted are slightly out of date: 2019 birth rate in China was 10.48 per thousand source

[vtsnowedin]

VT, with respect, you are talking at cross purposes with PS Ralph. You are discussing the population of PRC whereas Ralph is discussing the human population of the world. The main engine of human population growth is the MENA region - the SE Asian region population looks a lot closer to its peak.
BTW the demographic figures you have quoted are slightly out of date: 2019 birth rate in China was 10.48 per thousand source

Perhaps. I was using the Chinese one billion population figure for a clear example. Imagine if this spreads to the MENA region with it's levels of health care facilities. You could have almost universal exposure and much higher death rates then are currently being experienced in China. This is one time when having a totalitarian and powerful government in charge may serve the Chinese people well.