New coronavirus in/from China

[UndercoverElephant]

There are now rumours that the Chinese government is considering quarantining the entire country. Shutting all external borders in both directions. Over 10,000 cases expected in Wuhan by the end of next week.

[clv101]

I'm not a big one for conspiracy theories... But the official numbers of hundreds of cases and ~30 deaths, doesn't sit right with the scale of the lock down. But maybe it is actually the responsible thing to do, it just looks odd because it's so rare for responsible actions to be taken!

BBC World Service had an hour long program about this, Fri morning, the presenter was a young journalist covering SARs - talked a lot about the official cover-up and lies from the top, was also clear that it wasn't like that this time.

Also, with millions in lock down, why aren't we seeing more information, videos, text from those in the cities? Social media had literally the same dozen videos again and again. What's the Internet connectivity like? Anyone know anyone there?

[clv101]

From @DrDenaGrayson on Twitter:

Having YEARS of experience developing an #Ebola treatment, I was concerned about this #CoronavirusOutbreak from the outset, because this #coronavirus strain is very contagious, causes severe illness, and NO treatments or vaccines are available.

Unlike H5N1 "bird flu" (which does not spread easily between people) or SARS (which was spread by only a handful of "super spreaders"), this #coronavirus DOES appear to spread easily between people, even after making the jump from an animal (this is not common).

In addition to being highly contagious, this novel #coronavirus can cause a SEVERE infection that can kill even healthy people. It's rare to see BOTH of these (bad) attributes in the same novel virus. Usually, it's one or the other.

Per @CDCgov, "Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in #Wuhan, #China reportedly had some link to a large seafood/animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread."

Now, many newly diagnosed patients have NO connection to the market, supporting human-human spread = BAD

[fuzzy]

This guy said the same at the beginning of the week:

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/202 ... -city.html

[fuzzy]

Current official numbers:
As of 24:00 on January 24, the Health and Health Commission received a total of 1287 confirmed cases of pneumonia with new coronavirus infection in 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including 237 severe cases and 41 deaths (39 cases in Hubei Province, Hebei Province). 1 case, 1 case in Heilongjiang). 38 cases have been cured and discharged. A total of 1965 suspected cases were reported in 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities).
　　At present, 15,197 close contacts have been traced, 1,230 medical observations have been lifted, and 13,967 people are still receiving medical observations.
　　In addition, confirmed cases were reported abroad: 5 cases in Hong Kong, China, 2 cases in Macau, 3 cases in Taiwan, 4 cases in Thailand (2 cases have been cured), 2 cases in Japan (1 case has been cured), 2 cases in Korea, Two cases were in the United States, two in Vietnam, three in Singapore, one in Nepal, and two in France.

- those graphical pages are ridiculously out of date showing their gimmick value.

A butt puckering forward curve model - 200000 infected in 10 days time:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20018549v1

[fuzzy]

Where was that footage a few days ago of them 'racing to build a new hospital'? Someone just pointed out you don't need a dozen komatsu size diggers to build a hospital, you need them to dig a really big hole to chuck in..

[UndercoverElephant]

I'm not a big one for conspiracy theories... But the official numbers of hundreds of cases and ~30 deaths, doesn't sit right with the scale of the lock down. But maybe it is actually the responsible thing to do, it just looks odd because it's so rare for responsible actions to be taken!

I believe the Chinese authorities are expecting a very big jump in cases over the next week or so, because of the long incubation time and the slowness of those same authorities to act decisively in the earlier stages of the outbreak. So what they are doing now is anticipating that - they want to try to get on top of it before the new wave of cases get a chance to exponentially infect even more people. Or at the very least, they want to be able to say they did everything possible once it became clear how bad things were.

[UndercoverElephant]

A butt puckering forward curve model - 200000 infected in 10 days time:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20018549v1

Weird. The figures in that document are identical to the ones in a study by Lancaster Uni 2 days ago. Something not right.

[fuzzy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI

An excellent video.

[fuzzy]

A butt puckering forward curve model - 200000 infected in 10 days time:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20018549v1

Weird. The figures in that document are identical to the ones in a study by Lancaster Uni 2 days ago. Something not right.

I think it's just an academic paper summary from a 'search spider' I got it from flutrackers board.

Yours was perhaps the source. It does say Lancaster somewhere.

[kenneal - lagger]

Where was that footage a few days ago of them 'racing to build a new hospital'? Someone just pointed out you don't need a dozen komatsu size diggers to build a hospital, you need them to dig a really big hole to chuck in..

The hospital is prefabricated, according to the news, and so doesn't need massive foundations. A level site with adequate drainage is all that is required and that is what is being provided by the looks of things.

[adam2]

According to the Chinese leader, the situation is "grave" and the spread of the virus is "accelerating"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51249208

[adam2]

Where was that footage a few days ago of them 'racing to build a new hospital'? Someone just pointed out you don't need a dozen komatsu size diggers to build a hospital, you need them to dig a really big hole to chuck in..

I suspect that the story about the large prefabricated hospital is the truth. It is a good photo opportunity to demonstrate how the "people and leadership are pulling together to handle this crisis" unlike the decadent west where the planning application and related paperwork could take years.

Mass graves might well be needed, but I would expect any such excavations to be done discreetly or in complete secrecy, and NOT whilst being watched by the international press.

[clv101]

There's a massive spread between the widely circulating social media narrative and the official WHO narrative. It'll be informative to see in a few weeks time, which was closer to reality.

The three cases in France are interesting as I trust the data out of France more than other countries - if there are going to be dozens more cases associated with these first three we should hear about it.

But, already, there's going to be a significant global economic impact. Even oil prices are down.

[Vortex2]

Just heard a caller from HK suggesting an 80% chance of a military virus escape from a lab a few miles from that market.

Could explain the heavy Chinese reaction ... they KNOW what's afoot.

Also I heard the mortality rate is around 15%.

Probably all cobblers ...