Iran Watch...

[adam2]

I consider a full scale war between the USA and Iran to be unlikely, but do expect an increase in incidents that are "not quite war" such as the odd mysterious explosion of oil tankers or facilities.

I expect that any untoward incident in Iran will be blamed on the USA.
I expect that any terrorist attack in the west will be blamed on Iranian backed groups.

As always, it is prudent to be prepared just in case things get worse than expected.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

So, according to RGR the US will pay the daughter of the killed General $100k dollars and it will be all forgotten.

I said no such thing.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Not amazing at all that this quote would apply to the world's policeman.

What is amazing is that you actually think the US has a right to be the world's policeman.

I didn't say the US had the right.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

The problem here is that RGR is not prepared to debate honestly.

Says Mr "Plagarize everything from Facebook because I can't think for myself"?

[stumuz1]

Who actually thinks the US is going to war with Iran this year? By war, I mean mobilisation on a similar scale to Iraq in 2003 or Afghanistan, not just a few dozen air strikes.

Very slim chance.


My brother (armaments engineer) fought both the Gulf wars. Said that logistically nothing is in place (from a UK point of view)

The last Gulf wars saw civilian assets (large heavy carriers) Heavy loaders etc being readied months in advance.

Nothing at the moment.

So, very unlikely.

[UndercoverElephant]

Who actually thinks the US is going to war with Iran this year? By war, I mean mobilisation on a similar scale to Iraq in 2003 or Afghanistan, not just a few dozen air strikes.

Very slim chance.


My brother (armaments engineer) fought both the Gulf wars. Said that logistically nothing is in place (from a UK point of view)

The last Gulf wars saw civilian assets (large heavy carriers) Heavy loaders etc being readied months in advance.

Nothing at the moment.

So, very unlikely.

He asked about the US, not the UK. The UK isn't going to war with Iran.

[careful_eugene]

Who actually thinks the US is going to war with Iran this year? By war, I mean mobilisation on a similar scale to Iraq in 2003 or Afghanistan, not just a few dozen air strikes.

Very slim chance.


My brother (armaments engineer) fought both the Gulf wars. Said that logistically nothing is in place (from a UK point of view)

The last Gulf wars saw civilian assets (large heavy carriers) Heavy loaders etc being readied months in advance.

Nothing at the moment.

So, very unlikely.

He asked about the US, not the UK. The UK isn't going to war with Iran.

I do hope you're right about this, however I suspect if there is any escalation by the US the UK will be piling in alongside as we pretty much do what the US wants.

[Little John]

Yes, the UK is America's chief bitch. This was true pre-Brexit and may or may not continue to be true post Brexit unless other things change that are nothing to do with Brexit.

[stumuz1]

Who actually thinks the US is going to war with Iran this year? By war, I mean mobilisation on a similar scale to Iraq in 2003 or Afghanistan, not just a few dozen air strikes.

Very slim chance.


My brother (armaments engineer) fought both the Gulf wars. Said that logistically nothing is in place (from a UK point of view)

The last Gulf wars saw civilian assets (large heavy carriers) Heavy loaders etc being readied months in advance.

Nothing at the moment.

So, very unlikely.

He asked about the US, not the UK. The UK isn't going to war with Iran.

First time Bro' was at war, he was defusing booby trap bombs which had been planted in a child's play park, by retreating Iraqi's (now our allies). They were intended as punishment for the Kuwaiti families on their return after fleeing.

He was in charge of a team that was working with the US marine corps.

When the US goes to war, the UK usually send specialists with them to intelligence gather for future hostilities. This is how we learn to fight future wars.

So, if the US goes to land war, you can bet the farm the UK will tag along for the info.

[vtsnowedin]

I suspect the 52 targets "some cultural"are a ploy to spread defensive efforts away from real potential strike points. Chief among them are the nuclear program facilities that we know the location of. Any strike by Iran at any American asset will give a green light to a massive missile attack that will rubbleize every bit of infrastructure that supports their nuclear program. As to cultural sites the one the supreme leader sleeps in is probably the first to go up in a cloud of smoke. Other then that I don't see the cost /benefit ratio for blowing up any cultural objects or sites.

[UndercoverElephant]

Yes, the UK is America's chief bitch. This was true pre-Brexit and may or may not continue to be true post Brexit unless other things change that are nothing to do with Brexit.

The UK doesn't always do as the US wants. That's why we did not get involved in Vietnam.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

I suspect the 52 targets "some cultural"are a ploy to spread defensive efforts away from real potential strike points. Chief among them are the nuclear program facilities that we know the location of. Any strike by Iran at any American asset will give a green light to a massive missile attack that will rubbleize every bit of infrastructure that supports their nuclear program. As to cultural sites the one the supreme leader sleeps in is probably the first to go up in a cloud of smoke. Other then that I don't see the cost /benefit ratio for blowing up any cultural objects or sites.

[Little John]

Yes, the UK is America's chief bitch. This was true pre-Brexit and may or may not continue to be true post Brexit unless other things change that are nothing to do with Brexit.

The UK doesn't always do as the US wants. That's why we did not get involved in Vietnam.

That was a long time ago and another world away

[Potemkin Villager]

So, if the US goes to land war, you can bet the farm the UK will tag along for the info.

The west needs a land war in Iran like a hole in the head. You don't need a degree in miltary strategy to work out that it would be the ultimate clusterfuck. Many Iranians, whatever their political persuasion, will have had very bad experiences in their families of the era of the Shah and his secret police installed at the behest of the UK, US and British Petroleum. It is a mountainous country, unlike Iraq, with no shortage of wannabe heros and would probably be a rerun of various disastrous incursions into Afghanistan.

Still der trumpf is arrogant and stupid enough to think it a good idea. At some point with an enormous military and civilian body count he would probably claim "mission accomplished".

[Little John]

So, if the US goes to land war, you can bet the farm the UK will tag along for the info.

The west needs a land war in Iran like a hole in the head. You don't need a degree in miltary strategy to work out that it would be the ultimate clusterfuck. Many Iranians, whatever their political persuasion, will have had very bad experiences in their families of the era of the Shah and his secret police installed at the behest of the UK, US and British Petroleum. It is a mountainous country, unlike Iraq, with no shortage of wannabe heros and would probably be a rerun of various disastrous incursions into Afghanistan.

Still der trumpf is arrogant and stupid enough to think it a good idea. At some point with an enormous military and civilian body count he would probably claim "mission accomplished".

My bet is that most of the US generals are not stupid. Genocidal, if they can get away with it, and not above fomenting coups or engaging in the odd political assassination to be sure. But, not suicidal.

I think Trump has been bamboozled by the likes of Pompeo into thinking he could get away with this shite to bolster his numbers as a bulwark against the ongoing impeachment (which is, itself, more political bullshit). But, he is now probably, belatedly, realizing it is all blowing up in his face.