What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
OK a few seats
Having marked down Woking as a Tory loss the votes aren’t moving so it is now a Tory hold #GE2019
Winchester is very tight but I think it is a Tory hold
Don’t believe the hype - Tories will hold Esher and Walton (Raab is safe)
Rees Mogg is safe in NE Somerset
If, and it is still a if, the Tories manage to win a majority this Thursday, this superb American article will explain why.
Johnson intuited what the polling now shows: The “left-right� axis has morphed into an “open-closed� divide. On the one hand, there are those who have been winners in the 21st century and who favor the E.U. and international institutions, globalization, free trade, and mass immigration. On the other, there’s a rising non-elite group that defends the nation-state, opposes global capitalism, and wants to reduce immigration and put native-born workers first. Boris has definitely shifted the Tories into the latter camp, specifically through Brexit, a stance that appeals to more working-class voters — in exactly the same way that the GOP’s base has shifted to the less educated.
There's loads more in the article - I haven't read anything as good in the British media.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
UE wrote:
Final seat tally: very hard to predict, but my best guess is a tory majority of 20, the best they are likely to do is 50 and their worst likely result is 10 short of a majority.
LB3 wrote:
Summary... going with my gut instinct with a Tory majority of 104 (with a margin of error of 20 seats either way - e.g. 82 to 122 seats).
However, wouldn't be shocked if the Tory majority turns out to be half that on the night.
automatic earth wrote:
I'd say a 40 seat Tory majority.
Mark wrote:
My prediction on 19th April:
Tories - small increase in seats, mainly at the expense of Labour - increase due to May being seen as most credible leader for Brexit negotiations
Labour - further shrinkage into their heartlands due to no clear message on Brexit and Corbyn factor
Nobody was expecting a hung parliament, and that was based on what the polls were telling us. And you, Beria, were predicting a 3 figure tory majority based on your own research. And I'm currently making exactly the same prediction as I was 4 days before the election in 2017.
It does feel different to 2017. It feels like more is at stake.
The thing is...if the pollsters have indeed got it wrong again, then their wrongness will be amplified by the fact that some tory voters won't bother voting, because they think the election is in the bag nationally even if their constituency isn't safe. Especially if the weather is shitty, and Thursday is going to be wet and windy.
2017 was a lesson in how all the polls can be systematically wrong. Before then I understood why individual polls could be badly wrong, but sort of assumed that the average would sort itself out. I didn't understand the extent to which the results depended on "weightings" which amounted to making educated guesses about things that are hard to guess, and getting even harder.
UndercoverElephant wrote:It does feel different to 2017. It feels like more is at stake.
Locally, people seem far more fired up about it... however, I haven't seen any evidence of a youth surge like last time. The kids just aren't talking about Corbyn and don't really care much about Johnson's past - they literally weren't born when he was writing some of his worst stuff.
On the 12th it's numbers that count, not how strongly you hold your opinion.
UE, don't get any sense of complacency from Tory voters.
That was definitely happening in 2017 but nobody fully trusts the polls so I think the Tories will come out and vote whatever the weather.
It helps that unlike May in 2017 Tories are enthused by Boris and in the majority of cases want to vote for him. And the Corbyn alternative scares the hell out of most tories, remain or leave.
The youth are voting against the Tories in this election not so much for Corbyn like in 2017. There is definitely an enthusiasm gap this time round.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
There are two tail-end election scenarios for the UK - given what we know today. The first is a hung parliament - with a Labour/SNP/LibDem/Plaid Cymru/Green nominal majority. That would require two shifts from where we are right now: the tactical vote in south of England in favour of Remain-supporting parities has to become stronger than we think it is right now. And the shift from Labour to the Conservatives in the north has to be weaker. We think this scenario is possible but unlikely based on the current evidence from polls, focus groups and anecdotal information. If this scenario were to happen, most likely it would be due to a shift that has yet to take place, or one that has yet to be recognised. Â
The other tail-end scenario is a Conservative landslide. That would be premised on the exact opposite shifts. We keep hearing anecdotal evidence - for what it is worth - that the shift from Labour to Conservatism may be stronger in the north than the polls reflect. These potential first-time Tory voters might be a modern incarnation of the shy Tory - voting for Boris Johnson but afraid to admit this to a pollster. That scenario would also require the tactical voting in the south to be less what it is expected now.Â
The central scenario is that of a smallish Conservative victory. There could be less tactical voting in either the north or south, or more in both with the effects offsetting each other. The Tories could end up being the party of the working class, and Labour the party of urban England - but with broadly similar numbers as before. These shifts would be profound, but might not bring clarity on Brexit.Â
The Guardian's electoral analysis says another battleground to watch out for is Scotland. A small shift appears to have taken place towards the Tories there. The Guardian notes that by this time in 2017 Labour had already closed much of the polling gap, while it is still trailing by some 10 points in the poll trackers right now. We note that the poll most favourable to Labour - from BMG - has shifted over the last week towards the Tories, with their lead up from a previous 6pp to 9pp. The variance among the polls is now lower than it was at the beginning. The polling organisations use different methods, and make different adjustments, based on assumptions of turnout and other factors. If they get it wrong, they will all have gotten it wrong. We concur with the Guardian's assessment that, barring some dramatic event, Johnson is headed for a majority on Thursday.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Something I heard on the radio this morning, SNP MPs aren't meant (allowed?) to vote on purely English matters. This would make an Labour-SNP coalition totally unworkable?
clv101 wrote:Something I heard on the radio this morning, SNP MPs aren't meant (allowed?) to vote on purely English matters. This would make an Labour-SNP coalition totally unworkable?
It wouldn't make it impossible, but it would highlight a serious problem with the current arrangements. There is a lack of democratic accountability for English voters, precisely because there is no devolved English parliament.
The latest 4 polls have a Tory lead of between 6 and 15 points.
I still say the polls are useless. The trend in the polls is for the Tory lead to decline, but with the variation between polls equal to the average lead for the Tory party, any result is possible.
Too much information, not enough confidence on how to turn it into conclusions. However...
2,205 [newly registered voters] in Hastings and Rye
That should be more than enough to tip the seat to Labour, especially given the tory candidate is having a bad campaign. I remain cautiously hopeful Labour can win this.
In the wider scheme of things, there is no doubt that Labour will lose some tory-lab marginals in strongly leave voting areas. What is harder to predict is how many they'll take elsewhere.
I fully expect to have not really made my mind up until the exit poll comes out on Thursday. It's going to be a pivotal moment in British political history, one way or another.
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Also bear in mind that we may be heading for another election not long after this one if the tories fall slightly short of a majority, or only get a very small one. If so, there will be a bunch of new marginals where tactical voting has become crucial.
So is electoral stasis going to become a permanent feature of GB and NI politics? One famous definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome! So politics just becomes one endless series of stunts and speeches with everybody getting more and more sick of the increasing pointlessness of it all...... My bet is the voters are going to choose again for no party to have a working majority and the Dupers are unlikely to come to the aid of the tory part again.
