General Election Dec 2019 thread

[Lord Beria3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics ... 6435363841

[clv101]

There's much more awareness of which seats are marginals, and which candidate is best placed to oust or beat the Tory. I don't think there's a single story as to where Labour votes are coming from (if they actually materialise!).

Here in Wales there's a lot of talk of Plaid 'lending their vote' to Labour. They aren't Labour supporters, at all, are very critical of Welsh Labour in the Senedd - but their horror at a Johnson majority Tory government is more important.

Corbyn was in town today, my wife saw him getting his hair cut, big crowd, all positive. Johnson simply can't walk through a small town, talking to people like Corbyn can. No boos or jeers. Very disappointed not to have been able make the rally but know a few people who did, reported a very positive, optimistic atmosphere.

If Labour don't win Pembrokeshire, and possibly Carmarthen West from the Tories, they are in big trouble, it feels on the ground, different to 2017. Probably less interest from the college kids, but a lot more interest in the general population than I've seen before. I'm fascinated to find out what the actual result will be here.

[UndercoverElephant]

Any thoughts on where labour are getting this surge of support?

Previously-undecideds and late-switching tactical voters. This election is like none before it. There are always people who don't make their minds up until faced with a ballot paper, but this time there are more of them, their decisions are more important, and more of them are aware of this.

This isn't anywhere near over.

[Lord Beria3]

Does tactical voting work? Not clear in many constituencies who is best positioned to defeat the Tories.

In the marginal london seats its split between labour and lib dem. Look at Kensington, different polls suggest either labour or lib dems are best placed to defeat the Tories.

If myself, a political obsessive, struggles to work it out what chance for your average voter?

Academic studies have shown a third of tactical voting fails because the voter doesn't accurately understand the electoral dynamics within his own seat.

I would add the recent surge in labour vs vs lib dems has only complicated the picture.

[stumuz1]

Ha!

Finally my vote may actually count for something.

I live in Ynys Mon, Ynys=island, Mon= Anglesey.

According to Mr Kellner

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-election

It is one of the 50 seats in the UK which will keep out the evil, terrible, child eating, food bank promulgating, get up in the morning just to make everyone else miserable conservatives.

The thinking goes like this. Plaid Cymru voters (dislike the English intensely, typical nationalists, everything is Englands fault) are being told to vote labour (incumbent labour MP) 800 or so majority, who are constantly at each others throats,to keep the conservatives out.

Dwi ddim yn meddwl hynny, I dont think so!

So it seems that there has been a resurgent conservative vote on the island, which for the last 20 years has been labour or Plaid.

Ynys Mon voted leave BTW.

Any connection?

[vtsnowedin]

Which way does Putin want your election to go?
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/uk-elect ... 6835b3de4f

LONDON (AP) — The prospect of Russian interference in Britain’s election flared anew Saturday after the social media platform Reddit concluded that people from Russia leaked confidential British government documents on Brexit trade talks just days before the general U.K. vote.

Reddit said in a statement that it has banned 61 accounts suspected of violating policies against vote manipulation. It said the suspect accounts shared the same pattern of activity as a Russian interference operation dubbed “Secondary Infektion� that was uncovered earlier this year.

I note that the alleged interference amounts to exposing factual information as opposed to fabricated lies.
I do suspect that the US would like access to your system but to reduce drug prices in the US not raise them in the UK.

[UndercoverElephant]

Does tactical voting work?

Yes, but it takes time. Sometimes 2 or 3 election cycles. That's why Clegg's betrayal of 2010 was so damaging. The libdems lost millions of tactical votes, many of which they'll never get back because the seats in question are now lab-tory marginals where the tactical voting is required by libdem supporters needing to vote for labour.

Not clear in many constituencies who is best positioned to defeat the Tories.

There's plenty where it is clear though.

Also bear in mind that we may be heading for another election not long after this one if the tories fall slightly short of a majority, or only get a very small one. If so, there will be a bunch of new marginals where tactical voting has become crucial.

In the marginal london seats its split between labour and lib dem. Look at Kensington, different polls suggest either labour or lib dems are best placed to defeat the Tories.

Obviously Labour is best placed. They already hold the seat, and the libdems are nowhere.

If myself, a political obsessive, struggles to work it out what chance for your average voter?

Not sure why you are struggling. If you want to keep the tories out of Kensington, you vote Labour. Simples.

[Lord Beria3]

UE, that simply isn't the case regarding Kensington.

One poll showed the lib dems marginally behind the Tories with Labour far behind.

It is logical in that seat, if you are Labour, to vote lib dem - parnicuarly given that many of the ex-Tory voters there (the rich ones) would never vote Labour but do like the liberals.

Now, a recently poll shows Labour have surged, I think, still 3rd place from memory but now a 3 way seat.

But, given the inherent dynamics of that seat, I would still say that the lib dems are a better vote tactically speaking than Labour to get the Tories out.

The fact that you are saying, in that seat, to vote Labour actually proves my point! Nobody has a clue!!

[Lord Beria3]

Another interesting data point. One of my friends, who was planning to vote lib dem, has just switched to Labour.

Great news you might think! However, here's the catch. He lives in central London in a Labour seat with a huge Labour majority already.

His switch from lib dem to Labour means F--k all in the grand scheme of things. Labour need those votes in the midlands and north, not in their big city urban strongholds like London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds etc.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ction.html

Lets, assume, just for a moment, that the Tories do win a majority (yes, that is not given but play with me for the moment) - and Corbyn resigns - who is likely to be the next leader?

This interesting article suggests that only Keir will be the credible male candidate with up to 5 females standing for election.

For me, Keir is the best choice for Labour and if he was PM I would be ok with that.

[UndercoverElephant]

Is this where the tory campaign goes tits up?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50704786

Boris Johnson has insisted there will not be any checks for goods travelling from Northern Ireland to Great Britain under his Brexit deal.

He told Sky News that a leaked Treasury analysis document was "wrong" to suggest this would be the case.

Either there will be checks, or there won't. This should not be a matter of opinion, and if there's a disagreement between No 10 and No 11, then that is a major problem. This is not some minor issue - it is what killed May's original deal. If it turns out Johnson is lying, then he might be in serious trouble.

[UndercoverElephant]

UE, that simply isn't the case regarding Kensington.

One poll showed the lib dems marginally behind the Tories with Labour far behind.

It is logical in that seat, if you are Labour, to vote lib dem - parnicuarly given that many of the ex-Tory voters there (the rich ones) would never vote Labour but do like the liberals.

That is totally ridiculous. It's a labour seat, for F--k's sake. The libdems got fewer than 5000 votes in 2017.

But, given the inherent dynamics of that seat, I would still say that the lib dems are a better vote tactically speaking than Labour to get the Tories out.

So says someone who wants the tories to win!

[UndercoverElephant]

Labour need those votes in the midlands and north, not in their big city urban strongholds like London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds etc.

The tories have the same problem of vote-stacking in safe seats.

What Labour needs in its "red wall" seats is a higher than normal turnout of young voters. They will still lose a few, but they will also gain some from the tories in other parts of the country.

[Lord Beria3]

You are incorrect UE.

As per the FT:


https://www.ft.com/content/4cc8e70c-0c4 ... f4d1957a67

In Kensington, Sam Gyimah, until September a Conservative MP is standing for the Lib Dems against incumbent Emma Dent Coad, who won the London seat for Labour in 2017. At the end of October, Focal Data’s MRP model estimated that the Lib Dems had leapfrogged Labour and were set for a straight fight with the Conservatives.

Two weeks later Deltapoll ran a constituency poll telling a similar story: the Tories were on 36 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Lib Dems on 33, with Labour third on 27 per cent. Last weekend the DataPraxis model emerged, and put Labour back ahead of the Lib Dems by 30 to 28, identifying Ms Dent Coad as perhaps the best vessel for tactical voters opposed to leaving the EU. Three days later the YouGov model gave the Lib Dems the lead by 29 points to 26.

If, I was a a anti-Tory tactical voter living in Kensington, I wouldn't know who to vote for. Different polls suggest different parties to vote for.

Do I trust the DataPraxis poll or the YouGov poll? And that is the problem with tactical voting. In theory it sounds simple but can be fiendishly complex in reality.

[Lord Beria3]

Ian Smart's (a Scottish Labour supporter and NOT a Tory) final forecast for Scotland...

https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2019/12/ ... ngely.html

I started my election blogs by pointing out that the opening question at this election should not have been how many seats the Scottish Tories were going to lose lose but rather how many they were going to gain. How the press report matters is entirely a matter for them but I don't think that it is unfair to observe that, purely from the point of view of trade, Scottish political journalists have a vested interest in a narrative that the SNP are still going forward and that a second independence referendum remains very much on the horizon. That might explain why, even now, no-one has really been prepared to dive in to the inviting pool of seats the Tories might pick up. But there are in fact a good number.

And two things particularly favour the Tories this time.

In 2017 there was, in truth, little tactical voting. Where the Tories picked up seats the Labour vote actually went up. Where the Tories got close, and were clearly close, it also remarkably held up. But since then the nationalist cause, on the streets at least, has developed a much more distinctive republican tone, including overt parallels to Irish republicanism. There is a certain section of the electorate who really don't buy into this but who for reasons of class or family history have been previously reluctant to ever vote Tory. My own view however is that these people are open to the Tory call to be "lent" their vote to stop a second independence referendum. Particularly as their objections to nationalism mirror their objections to Corbynism. That's not just my view however, it is pretty much every piece of Tory literature is saying. For a reason.

The second thing which favours the Tories is that they are going to win. And there is a certain logic, with that as a given, that it favours Scotland to have large numbers on the winning side. Playing the sort of role that was probably most famously played in the past by George Younger. But, additionally, if the SNP are not going to hold the balance of power and if there is not going to be another referendum, what exactly, in a Westminster context, is their function? Moaning?

In 1979 the Scottish Tories got 31.4% of the Scottish popular vote. I think they will beat that in 2019.
31.4% brought them 31% of the seats then available (22 of 71). I think that's pretty much where we are now. So my final election prediction? Labour 3; Lib-Dems 5; Tories 18; SNP 33.

For those who follow my blog I recommended a political bet on these lines over a month ago.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... portunity/